Alabama Football: Crimson Tide's Road to College Football Playoff

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — With the first of its six rankings, the College Football Playoff selection committee essentially confirmed that the University of Alabama is one of the few teams that controls its postseason destiny this season.

The committee had the Crimson Tide fourth in its initial rankings behind Clemson, LSU and Ohio State, and ahead of Notre Dame and Baylor.

Here’s a breakdown of the Crimson Tide’s playoff status.

Where Alabama Stands

Service	Rank
Jeff Sagarin	1
Anderson & Hester	10
Richard Billingsley	6
Colley Matrix	11
Kenneth Massey	1
Dr. Peter Wolfe	12

The committee was obviously impressed with the Crimson Tide’s (7-1, 4-1 SEC) schedule, including road wins at No. 8 (at the time) Georgia, No. 9 Texas A&M and versus No. 20 Wisconsin in a neutral setting.

“There were a number of discussions about those undefeated teams and whether a one-loss team should be ranked ahead of them,” committee chairman Jeff Long said during the ESPN broadcast.

Specific to the difference between No. 4 Alabama and No. 10 Florida, he responded:

"

Alabama has a quality victory more than Florida than our eyes. They have three wins against teams with .500 or better records, and then Florida has two. I think that was probably the biggest difference. I think they’re actually very close even though they may be separated by so much in our rankings. Those are two teams that we do think are very close.

"

Meanwhile, Alabama was both seventh in this week’s Associated Press and Amway Coaches polls, but there’s little agreement regarding the Crimson Tide’s standing among the various computer polls, even the ones the BCS used.

One would think that the winner of Saturday’s showdown with No. 2 LSU (7 p.m. CT, CBS) will have the inside track on a playoff spot as long as it wins out. However, even with a win, Alabama still has a tough road to go, with a trip to No. 20 Mississippi State looming next week, rival Auburn on Nov. 28 and then the potential SEC Championship Game—likely against No. 10 Florida.

Help Needed

Ranking, Team	Record
1 Texas	3-5
2 West Virginia	3-4
3 Tennessee	4-4
4 Kansas	0-8
5 Southern California	5-3
6 Maryland	2-6
7 California	5-3
8 Iowa State	3-5
9 Alabama	7-1
10 Washington	4-4

If Alabama wins out, it almost certainly won’t need any help.

If Alabama loses to LSU or anyone else, it’ll need quite a bit, especially with there still being 11 undefeated teams: Baylor, Clemson, Houston, Iowa, LSU, Memphis, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, TCU and Toledo.

Granted, a lot of these teams have each other on the schedule, but the committee would feel a lot of pressure to select another league champion, or even an undefeated Houston or Toledo, over a second SEC team with two losses.

Regardless, Alabama fans are definitely rooting for No. 17 Ole Miss (7-2, 4-1 SEC) to take another loss, as the Rebels have a tie-breaking edge due to the 43-37 victory earlier this season at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

If Ole Miss wins out (it plays Arkansas, finally gets a bye, hosts LSU and closes against rival Mississippi State), it would keep Alabama out of the SEC Championship Game. According to the playoff committee’s protocol:

"

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without factoring margin of victory)

"

Final Bowl Prediction

Alabama’s going to be favored in every remaining game, and, considering it probably has the most talent from top to bottom of anyone, it figures to be among the strongest contenders.

One huge advantage Alabama has over the field is that it went through this last year, approaching every game as a must-win after taking a mid-season loss. Although the first playoff rankings were announced earlier in 2014, it was sixth, behind Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Ole Miss and Oregon.

The Crimson Tide ran the table and won the SEC Championship to clinch the top seeding before bowing out to Ohio State.

That translates to confidence when the pressure mounts, but it also has the team hungry.

The guess here is that Alabama returns to the semifinals and faces the Big 12 champion in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 31.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.