NFL Picks and Predictions Week 9: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

The thrill of watching NFL games from a gambling perspective can make Sundays a much better experience. For example, a few weeks ago, the New England Patriots faced the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Near the end of the game, the Colts scored a garbage-time touchdown, which looked like a sure backdoor cover.

This was semi-true. Those with early tickets on the matchup had the game set at seven points, and when Indianapolis went to kick the point after touchdown to push it from seven points to six, New England's linebacker Jamie Collins blocked the attempt, causing mayhem for everyone. This resulted in a push and a huge swing of cash in the gambling world.

Gambling can create fandom on the weekends for teams you're relatively new to. It's like fantasy football, but instead of stalking an individual player, you root for a franchise like a normal human. It's fun. You should try it.

Last weekend, we finished a well below standard 5-7-1, only the third losing week in picks over the first eight weeks of the season. In our non-lock picks, the two that hurt the most were the San Diego Chargers pushing against the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts covering against the Carolina Panthers, who looked like they locked up the minus-5.5 win. Andrew Luck and Co. are amazing in garbage time.

In our locks, we went 2-3—again only the third time in eight weeks in which we've had a losing record. Pittsburgh easily could have beaten the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Steelers couldn't capitalize on Andy Dalton's turnovers. The Jets just decided to get eaten by Oakland's offensive line in what was probably the most shocking result of Week 8. Not forgotten, Detroit made a fool of itself in London against the Kansas City Chiefs, who seem to be taking the loss of Jamaal Charles much better than expected.

The two winning locks were the Vikings beating Chicago in Soldier Field and Arizona blowing the Browns out of the water. We're still above the key number of 52.5 percent in both our overall and lock picks. This week, the goal is to get over 55 percent by the end of Monday Night Football.

All picks ATS: 57-49-5 (.536)

Locks of the Week ATS: 22-18-1 (.549)

Thursday Night Football: Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Frank Victores/Associated Press

Cincinnati Bengals 31, Cleveland Browns 10

The Bengals once again flexed on national television, improving their season record to 8-0, while the Cleveland Browns and Johnny Manziel fell short. Cincinnati tight end Tyler Eifert scored 18 of the game's 41 points, pushing himself into Rob Gronkowski territory as far as dominance at the position is concerned.

Manziel started in place of an injured Josh McCown, and he ended up completing only 45.5 percent of his throws. There were some poor reception attempts by his targets, but he also threw off of his back foot often, zipping the ball with wrist and elbow velocity, not standing tall in the pocket. Overall, he did better than the box score suggested, but this isn't a Cam Newton situation where he's playing miles above of what his statistics would dictate.

If I'm Mike Pettine, I start getting real nervous. It's only November 6, and his team plays just twice more in the month. The Browns have a long wait before next Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are desperate to prove they are wild-card contenders, as the Bengals have essentially locked up the division. Then Cleveland has a bye week, with the Baltimore Ravens, who are playing for pride, on the other side of it.

As far as shaky coaching situations go, it's Pettine, Jim Caldwell—whose Lions are essentially firing everyone except the head coach—and Chuck Pagano, who is somehow leading the AFC South with a 3-5 record, as the top three guys who might lose their job in-season. By next week, Caldwell might be out, and it's hard to push Pagano out when he's "winning" despite what owner Jim Irsay may or may not think of him. Once the media moves on from Caldwell to Pettine, he won't have much time, and it will be during a horrible stretch of inactivity and potential adjustment for the Browns.

Cover: Bengals

Miami @ Buffalo

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Opening line: Miami @ Buffalo (-3)

Current line: Miami @ Buffalo (-3)

Vegas punted this line, giving the nod to the Buffalo Bills by three points, thanks to the home-field advantage.

The Miami Dolphins are coming off Thursday Night Football against the New England Patriots, where they were slaughtered, which shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. Miami beat two bad teams as a warm-up, one that now has a new head coach, during the Dan Campbell era before the former tight ends coach had to lead his team against the buzz saw known as the Patriots on a short week.

Post-Week 1, the Bills have only two wins: against the Dolphins under Joe Philbin and a one-point victory against the Tennessee Titans, whom Miami also beat. Buffalo has lost to the Patriots, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars in London. The loss to Jacksonville can almost entirely be put on the shoulders of EJ Manuel, who made it his goal to be the first to lose in three different countries.

Now that Manuel is out at quarterback for the Bills and Tyrod Taylor is back, expect the squad to look more competent on the offensive side of the ball.

At the end of the day, I view these two teams as similar franchises, but whenever Coach Campbell wasn't asked to do the impossible—beat Bill Belichick—he's inspired his team. A slight edge goes to Miami in a three-point game.

The pick: Miami (+3)

Green Bay @ Carolina

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Opening line: Green Bay @ Carolina (+3)

Current line: Green Bay @ Carolina (+2.5)

Green Bay is in a funk right now. For all of the backlash that general manager Ted Thompson took for giving Randall Cobb big money for a slot receiver, it sure has saved the Packers this season. Without Jordy Nelson, Cobb is the only real receiving threat on the squad, as Davante Adams hasn't been the breakout player many assumed he would be.

On top of that, Eddie Lacy's conditioning and eating habits have taken a toll on his body, as he's not a big factor in 2015. Heading into the season, I would have said he was only behind Le'Veon Bell as far as young backs go, but now he's fallen behind the pack.

It's going to be as simple as this: The Packers are built to play with a lead. If they get one early, they're going to put the opposing team into a position to throw, where they thrive defensively. Green Bay's defense is almost arranged entirely to rack up interceptions and sacks.

When Denver got up early against Green Bay on Sunday Night Football, it got ugly quickly. The running game led the Packers to hemorrhage. The Carolina Panthers have both a quality running game and one of the best defenses in the league. On top of that, Cam Newton is the only quarterback with as many "wow plays" as Aaron Rodgers has this season.

Green Bay opening up on the road against a quality team as a three-point favorite in back-to-back weeks is concerning, considering the last result. That suggests Mike McCarthy's squad would be a nine- to 10-point favorite if this game was at home. I wouldn't trust the Packers to cover that line, either.

So long as Green Bay is favored here, the value is on Carolina, despite its playing on one shorter day of rest after playing deep into overtime on Monday. The Panthers have made their way through plenty of close and intense games over the last two seasons, and it never seems to wear on them.

The pick: Carolina (+3)

St. Louis @ Minnesota

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Opening line: St. Louis @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Current line: St. Louis @ Minnesota (-2)

Neither team has a good offensive line. I trust Teddy Bridgewater more than Nick Foles, though. Between the ground game and the defense, however, I'm leaning on the St. Louis Rams. They are one of the hottest teams in the league since Todd Gurley joined the active roster, and they've finally figured out how not to shoot themselves in the foot, plus they've been rewarded with a jump in offensive touchdowns.

The Vikings are 6-1 against the spread, but that number has to come down at some point this year, and we're halfway through the season. There's not a chance that Vegas is going to just let watchful gamblers bet Minnesota blindly from here on out, like they have been able to do so far.

The pick: St. Louis (+2.5)

Washington @ New England

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Opening line: Washington @ New England (-13)

Current line: Washington @ New England (-14)

I wouldn't argue with you for one second if you thought the New England Patriots were a lock to win straight up this week, but as far as the spread is concerned, you have to go against them. They are 14-point favorites in the NFL. That's never going to be an intelligent line.

The Patriots also are fond of giving up late, meaningless scores. The Steelers made it a one-score game late in Week 1. The Patriots built a huge lead against the Bills before allowing them to run out the clock with points. Even against the Colts, Indianapolis scored late to make it a one-score game, though linebacker Jamie Collins blocked the extra-point attempt.

The Washington Redskins have proved themselves respectable at different points of the season, taking Atlanta into overtime, beating St. Louis and most recently beating Tampa Bay. The team will hang around, and after a bye week, it should be performing better than ever.

Washington is going to do something in garbage time like kick a field goal to make it an 11-point game—a win for its side of the spread—and you'll be celebrating like Kirk Cousins. New England is one of the more banged up teams in the league, especially on the offensive line, and that's what is going to keep the Patriots from going pedal to the metal for 60 minutes. If you're up two scores with four minutes left in the game, there's no point to risk injury for style points.

The pick: Washington (+14)

Oakland @ Pittsburgh

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Opening line: Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-6)

Current line: Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-5)

Shockingly, this line opened up with the Pittsburgh Steelers as six-point favorites. Now I wouldn't argue with the Steelers being favored at home, but anything over four points or so should be scrutinized. A six-point line means that in Oakland, the game would be a toss-up with no favorite.

Pittsburgh missed Ben Roethlisberger when he was out, but against the Cincinnati Bengals, Big Ben didn't look like who he was this season before his injury in St. Louis. It doesn't show up in the stat sheet, but there were some passes that easily could have been intercepted. On top of that, in the loss to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh lost Le'Veon Bell, one of the league's elite backs. 

Heading into last week, the Steelers looked like a triple-threat offense with Roethlisberger, Bell and receiver Antonio Brown. Now, they look like they'll only suit up a threat-and-a-half against the Raiders.

For as much as people say that Pittsburgh's defense is much better than it was projected to be, Derek Carr and his Oakland squad are coming off a huge win against the New York Jets, who have been one of the most dominant teams in the league this season, led by their insane defense.

In the red zone as a rookie, Carr threw 18 touchdowns and an interception. This year, he's thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions in the same situation. A ratio of 24 touchdowns to one interception in constricted space is impressive. Some will argue that third-down and red-zone situations are the only ways to judge quarterbacks, as checkdown options are available in other circumstances.

In pressure situations, Carr really does look like the next great quarterback. In all honesty, with Carr, Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray, Oakland has better triplets than Pittsburgh does currently.

The pick: Oakland (+6)

Jacksonville @ New York Jets

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Opening line: Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-7)

Current line: Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-7)

The Jets have been one of the more dominant teams in the league this season. Would I take them as seven-point favorites at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars? Yes. If this game were in Jacksonville, it would be a one-point line in favor of the Jets. Would I take that line? Yes.

Blake Bortles is making slow improvement to that Andrew Luck-Ben Roethlisberger potential we wanted to see from him. But as we've seen with even Luck, the good games and bad games balance out. We're starting to see some of the upside of Bortles, but his flaws are still apparent. Jacksonville is asking him to get comfortable this season, and it will just tweak the adjustments down the line.

I still don't trust the Jaguars not to blow a two-score lead in crucial moments, let alone on the road. I wouldn't worry about a bye week in this spot, a one-score line in which one team is clearly more talented.

The pick: New York Jets (-7)

Tennessee @ New Orleans

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

Opening line: Tennessee @ New Orleans (-8.5)

Current line: Tennessee @ New Orleans (-9)

It appears that Marcus Mariota will start at quarterback for the Tennessee Titans, just after the team fired Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. Matt Leinart, who was a first-round pick quarterback under Whisenhunt in Arizona, sent a petty shot over Twitter, but he might have a point.

Some would argue Whisenhunt didn't get enough time with Mariota, though the coach was 1-20 in Tennessee in non-Week 1 games. Dating back to his days in Arizona, he was 2-31 in the last 33 non-Week 1 games. Not only that, but one of his only decisions with Mariota was to play him after he suffered an injury, a decision that ruined Robert Griffin III's career and Washington's franchise.

Give me the Titans now that Mariota is back, and we aren't 100 percent sure that his new head coach, Mike Mularkey, is incompetent. This team could have easily won against the Bills and Colts, but Whisenhunt's "play to not lose" strategy led to just that: losses. 

The Saints just scored a bunch of points, so the public thinks they are "back." They zig, you zag. New Orleans is 3-1 this year at home, with its most recent win coming from a slim shootout with the Giants, but the team lost six homes games in a row from Week 9 of 2014 to Week 4 of 2015. The Superdome just isn't what it used to be.

The pick: Tennessee (+9)

Denver @ Indianapolis

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Opening line: Denver @ Indianapolis (+3)

Current line: Denver @ Indianapolis (+5)

After an overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers, the Indianapolis Colts now face one of the only teams in the league with a better defense, the Denver Broncos, on a week with one fewer day of rest. Indianapolis' offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton, was fired this week, but as the Detroit Lions learned in London last weekend, that doesn't always solve the problem.

Andrew Luck is still the Colts quarterback, and he's still not protecting the football. Plus, he's still missing open receivers. Remember, he's only won one game for the team this year.

On the other hand, Peyton Manning, though typically winning unimpressively, is doing just enough to win games for his defensively led squad. You would assume he'd be motivated to face Jim Irsay. Since Manning left Indianapolis, he's only returned once in a game, a 39-33 loss. It's hard for me to believe that right behind another Super Bowl, one of his NFL bucket list items isn't beating the Colts.

So Manning's team is favored by three points, and the over-under is set at 45 points after opening at 48 points. That would suggest the Colts were projected to score 22.5 points and are down to 21 points. Still, how is Luck getting three touchdowns on Denver? The Broncos have the best one-two-three cornerback situation in the league, have a great unit at the line of scrimmage and just might have the best coverage linebackers in the league; the Panthers linebackers dominated the Colts all night on Monday.

The Broncos have allowed 21 or more points in just two of their seven games. Indianapolis' sputtering offense isn't going to get the job done. Denver wins big.

The pick: Denver (-3)

Atlanta @ San Francisco

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Opening line: Atlanta @ San Francisco (+3)

Current line: Atlanta @ San Francisco (+7)

The Atlanta Falcons are seven-point favorites on the road when they've only won two games by that many or more points: against the Brandon Weeden Cowboys in Dallas and against the Houston Texans at home. Both of those teams may be bottom-five in the league from a power-ranking standpoint.

In Atlanta's last four games, it went into overtime against Washington, lost to New Orleans by double digits, managed to beat Tennessee despite scoring 10 points in 60 minutes and lost at home to Tampa Bay, who was rewarded with the first overall pick in 2015 for its lack of talent.

A seven-point line likely means a 9.5-point advantage on a neutral field, as San Francisco's home-field advantage is fairly weak. At home, the Falcons would be 12.5-point favorites. There's not one intelligent bettor in the world who would take the bait there.

I don't care if the Falcons are 6-2. I don't care that San Francisco has called in the season by trading Vernon Davis. I don't care that it's starting Blaine Gabbert, who was run out of Jacksonville, at quarterback over the passer who took the 49ers to a Super Bowl and nearly won it.

You will not sleep easy over this pick, but it needs to be done.

The pick: San Francisco (+7)

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Opening line: New York Giants @ Tampa Bay (+1)

Current line: New York Giants @ Tampa Bay (+2.5)

Eli Manning was just hot for a game, which means according to the path of his career, a big letdown is slated for this week. At the same time, Jameis Winston, who made plenty of mistakes early on in 2015, hasn't thrown an interception since October 4.

Something has to give, and the Buccaneers opened as short home dogs by one point this week. For a season's worth of data, the Giants are clearly a better football team. Tampa has lost by multiple scores three times this year, while New York has only done so once. The Giants have also won two games by multiple scores, while the Buccaneers haven't done so in 2015.

Assuming three points in home-field advantage both ways, New York would be favored by seven points at home against Tampa, according to this line. Other than the Eagles game, the Giants have looked impressive this season. Everyone is excited for Winston's breakout, but this has a very "regression to the mean" feel to me, and New York's average game has simply been better than the team coached by Lovie Smith.

If Marcus Mariota can light up the Buccaneers at home, I don't see why Manning, coming off a six-touchdown game, can't. The only quarterback Tampa Bay has faced whom I would consider to be better than Manning is Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers, who beat Winston's team by 14 points in Raymond James Stadium.

The pick: New York Giants (-1)

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening line: Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5)

Current line: Philadelphia @ Dallas (+2.5)

The usual rule is to take whoever is the underdog in games involving Dallas, but the Philadelphia Eagles are actually a quietly good team. Sure, they've disappointed this season, but in the NFC East, without Tony Romo suiting up for the Cowboys, who has been better?

The Eagles have the best defense in the division by a good margin. They are ranked fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. Dallas is 17th, while Washington and the Giants are 22nd and 25th, respectively. Philadelphia also gives up the fewest points per game defensively in the division at 19.6.

Dallas running back Darren McFadden got 152 yards on the ground two weeks ago, but he only has 345 rushing yards on the year, dropping two yards per carry from his effort against the Giants to his game against the Seahawks last weekend. Another back for the Cowboys, Joseph Randle, was cut this week. So, it's all on Matt Cassel, the third quarterback to start for the team this year, to get it done against a great defense.

Cassel is wearing a knee brace this week after being listed on the injury report. He has thrown one touchdown in two starts with the team. Last week, he averaged 3.88 yards per pass, and the longest completion of the night went for 15 yards. There's just too much going on in the Cowboys organization right now for me to trust Dallas. If a field goal gives us a push, we can live with the results.

Multiple spots opened with Dallas as the home favorite but were bet down for good reason. The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, which should help them greatly.

The pick: Philadelphia (+2.5)

Monday Night Football: Chicago @ San Diego

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Opening line: Chicago @ San Diego (-3.5)

Current line: Chicago @ San Diego (-4)

The San Diego Chargers are dropping like flies, don't really have a home-field advantage and are still favored by four points at home against the Chicago Bears. Sure, Matt Forte, Chicago's tailback, is injured, but at this point, I would say Chicago has the advantage on the offensive line, at receiver and on the defensive side of the ball.

A four-point favorite at home, in a stadium that often feels like a visitor's field, means from a power-ranking standpoint the 2-6 Chargers are two-point favorites against the Bears in a neutral stadium. In Chicago, the Bears would only be favored by one point, taking into account a three-point swing their way for home-field advantage.

Jay Cutler's team has hung around games all season. Trusting the Bears on a big stage probably isn't a great idea in a vacuum, but the Chargers are just too banged up, plus there well might be more Chicago fans at the game than San Diego fans.

I don't know what's in the water across from Tijuana, but maybe a move to Los Angeles is needed for the Chargers, not just for money but for the health of the squad. I'd lean on the Bears in a three-point line, let alone a four-point line.

The pick: Chicago (+4)

Locks of the Week

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

1. Philadelphia (+2.5) @ Dallas
2. Oakland (+6) @ Pittsburgh
3. Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-7)
4. Atlanta @ San Francisco (+7)
5. Washington (+14) @ New England

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.