
Kentucky Basketball: 5 Bold Predictions for Wildcats' 2015-16 Season
Another college basketball season is almost upon us, and the Kentucky Wildcats are once again one of the most talented teams in the nation. Still, nothing is guaranteed in this sport.
It was a surprise to many that this program was able to win its first 38 games last season. At that point, it was an even bigger shock that the group could not complete the undefeated year while losing in the national semifinals.
With a mostly new roster this season, it is difficult to know exactly what to expect. No matter what happens, there will certainly be more surprises both big and small, positive and negative.
Here is a look at some bold predictions for Kentucky during the upcoming season.
Jamal Murray Leads Team in Scoring
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NBA scouts are drooling over the potential of Skal Labissiere, projected by DraftExpress to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft. His size (6'11", 225 lbs) and skill could make him next in the line of great centers behind Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Even with his talent, however, he is still relatively raw offensively and doesn't appear to have an aggressive attitude with the ball.
The same cannot be said about Jamal Murray. The freshman point guard does an outstanding job of creating his own shot either in the lane or on the perimeter, and he has the mentality to be a go-to option right out of the gate. He showed as much with a team-high 22 points in the team's exhibition game against Ottawa.
While the presence of Tyler Ulis and Isaiah Briscoe could push Murray to the wing, the 6'4" player should be able to handle the adjustment and use his quickness to beat bigger defenders.
In reality, he could play anywhere from the 1 to the 3 and be successful.
With a loaded roster once again, it's unlikely anyone tops 15 points per game, but Murray should be the top scorer at around 13-14 per game.
Tyler Ulis Leads Nation in Assists
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Last season's platoon really limited Tyler Ulis as he struggled to ever get into a rhythm offensively, but he still came through with 3.6 assists in 23.8 minutes per game. He showcased excellent handle and vision that help overcome his 5'9" frame.
With a likely starting role and more minutes available this season, Ulis has a chance to really be a star at the college level.
Sporting News' Mike DeCourcy ranked Ulis as the No. 7 point guard in college basketball heading into the year, although none of the players listed above him are truly pass-first guards quite like the Kentucky star is. Fred VanVleet and Kris Dunn can certainly rack up assists, but both will have to take on bigger scoring roles this season.
Conversely, Ulis can continue looking for his teammates on a loaded roster with guys who know how to finish at a high level.
The sophomore had 10 assists in the exhibition against Ottawa and unofficially had 15 assists in the Blue-White scrimmage, according to UKAthletics.com. There is no reason this can't continue when the games start to count.
Although a slow pace will limit possessions, Ulis is on the brink of an excellent season for the Wildcats.
Kentucky Loses at Least 5 Times in SEC Play
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This team is obviously extremely talented. According to Odds Shark, Kentucky is the odds-on favorite to win the 2016 national championship at 7-1.
With that said, this squad is not as good as the 2014-15 version.
Last year's Wildcats had as much depth as any college basketball team in history. Trey Lyles and Devin Booker came off the bench before being selected as lottery picks in the 2015 NBA draft. Even when the team played poorly early (like against Buffalo, Boston University, Columbia, Texas), its depth was enough for it to pull away.
Kentucky doesn't have that luxury this year, and as a young team, there will certainly be mistakes and inconsistency. It won't be enough to sound any alarm bells, but another 38-0 start is extremely unlikely.
Meanwhile, the SEC has gotten much better with LSU and Vanderbilt especially having much-improved teams. Although the nonconference schedule is relatively weak compared to that of past seasons, the conference season will provide plenty of challenges.
Less Than 20 Percent of Points Come from 3-Point Range
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There are certainly capable shooters on this roster, and they proved it with a 12-of-22 mark from deep in the exhibition game against Ottawa.
However, three-point shooting will not be a big part of the offense this season.
John Calipari's offenses are usually built around penetration, and that is exactly how this team is built. Isaiah Briscoe and Jamal Murray are better creating off the dribble and driving to the rim, while the forwards are at their best when they are within 10 feet of the basket.
Without pure shooters like Aaron Harrison or Devin Booker on the roster, there will be more shots taken inside the paint than usual.
According to KenPom.com, only 15 teams in Division 1 (out of 351) generated less than 20 percent of their points from beyond the arc last season, and only three of them made the NCAA tournament.
Based on the design of this team, Kentucky should be on this list in the 2015-16 season.
Upperclassmen Play Biggest Role Since Calipari Came to Kentucky
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John Calipari has a reputation as a "one-and-done" coach, with players spending one or at most two years at Kentucky before moving on to the NBA.
There have been some contributing juniors and seniors over the years like Darius Miller, Josh Harrellson and most recently Willie Cauley-Stein, but for the most part, the top players are ones without much experience.
Even with the starting lineup likely to feature three freshmen and a sophomore, there should still be a lot of contributions from upperclassmen this season.
Marcus Lee might take the biggest jump from last season after struggling to get onto the floor in his first two years. As a junior, he has finally taken his raw athleticism and turned it into what could be elite shot-blocking ability with the skills to finish inside offensively.
Senior Alex Poythress is certain to get a lot of minutes as long as he is healthy. Despite coming off a knee injury that ended his last season early, he can play either forward spot and brings a toughness and intensity otherwise not seen on the roster.
Junior Derek Willis and junior college transfer Mychal Mulder are also likely to crack the rotation while helping to provide depth throughout the season.
While the elite freshmen will get most of the headlines, Kentucky will be a much better team thanks to a handful of older players on the floor.
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