What Rickie Fowler Must Do to Join the 'Big 3' in Golf's Elite Class

Golf fans love to both talk about and decry the designation of a "Big Three" in golf. 

And golfers themselves don't particularly care for all the talk, as Jordan Spieth illuminated when asked about the "Big Three" in September:

"

Well I think that the big number, whatever it is, changes, I've seen it change week-to-week out here.

There was big two, there was big one, there was big two, there was big three, there was big two, there was big four. I mean, Brooks Koepka wins this week, it's the big five. You know, it's what it is.

"

But since we're talking about it: Fans seem universal in their agreement that after the pair's five-win seasons and three majors between them, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day are now in Rory McIlroy's (who was the Big One of 2014) league. 

And a rung between these three golfers are the likes of Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson and Jimmy Walker. 

So, what must the 2015 Players champion Rickie Fowler do to move up a rung, as it were?

Here are three things.

Dial in his irons

Greens in regulation. (rank; percentage)

Day: T7: 70.83%
Spieth: 49: 67.87%
McIlroy: 71.03%
Fowler: 106: 65.81%

It's more than a truism: The best players in golf consistently hit the green in regulation. Rory McIlroy would have been inside the top 10 in GIR, had he played enough rounds to officially rank. Jason Day placed inside the top 10. Jordan Spieth is a par-saving maestro, so he can afford to do a bit worse and rely on his scrambling. But the difference in five percentage points, as Fowler trailed Day and McIlroy by last year, is enormous over the course of a year. 

And considering that Fowler's driving accuracy was on par with Spieth's and markedly better than Day's, it's clear he has work to do dialing in his approach play. 

Establish consistency

PGA Tour finishes: 2014-2015

Day: T3, T17, 1, T4, T31, T17, T28, T4, T52, Cut, Cut, T9, T4, 1, T12, 1, 1, T12, 1, T10
Spieth: T35, 1, T7, Cut, T7, T4, T17, 1, 2, 2, 1, T11, T17, Cut, T2, T30, T3, 1, 1, T4, T10, 2, Cut, Cut, T13, 1
McIlroy: Cut; T9; T11; 4; 1; T8; 1; T9; T17; T29; T4: T16
Fowler: T3, T6, T46, T61, T41, T12, T29, 71, T12, Cut, T9, Cut, Cut, T30, 2, T10, T30, Cut, 1, T4, T12 

A first glance at Rickie Fowler's play in 2014-15 reveals his didn't miss many cuts. And indeed, he didn't miss cuts at any greater rate than Misters Day, Spieth and McIlroy. 

With two wins compared to five, Fowler did, however, have fewer wins that the two Big Three golfers who played a full season, Spieth and Day, as well as a lower percentage of top-10 finishes and top-25s. McIlroy, in his injury-shortened season, had just one finish outside the top 25 in tournaments in which he made the cut (11 of 12)

Golfer	Starts	Top-10s (%)	Top-25s (%)
Fowler	21	7 (30%)	10 (48%)
Spieth	25	15 (60%)	19 (76%)
Day	20	11 (55%)	15 (75%)

The Big Three have a leg up on Fowler in the consistency department.  

Play better in the "red zone"

Approaches from 175-200 yards (rank; distance to pin); Approaches from 200-225 yards

Day: 175-200: 102: 32'9''; 200-225: 2: 35'1
Spieth: 175-200: 42: 31'1''; 200-225: 5: 35'2''
McIlroy: 175-200: 30'5''; 200-225: 55'6''
Fowler: 175-200: 147: 34'5''; 200-225: 72: 39'11''

An important area for success on tour, and one that separates the good players from the best, is approach play from 175-225 yards (statistician Rich Hunt has written about this in detail). 

It's likely only McIlroy's small sample size from 200 to 225 yards last season that keeps all three of the Big Three from placing ahead of Rickie Fowler in both play from 175 to 200 yards and 200-225 yards. 

Day and Spieth were two of the best players on tour from 200 to 225 yards out last season. Fowler was average. McIlroy would have been among the best from 175 to 200 yards had he played enough rounds to rank officially. While neither Spieth nor Day was brilliant from this range, Fowler was among the worst on tour. 

All stats via PGATour.com