Why an Early Champions League Exit Could Make Arsenal Premier League Champions

Two weeks ago, Arsenal celebrated their victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League as if they had finally won the trophy and not a mere three points in the group stage. 

After the final whistle, the jubilant players hugged each other and stayed in the centre of the pitch to applaud the delirious fans in the stands around them at the Emirates.

After losing their first two group games, these Arsenal fans had come to witness what was likely to be another defeat to the rampant German champions—who had won their previous 12 games—which would have signalled the end of their hopes of progressing in the Champions League.

And yet, just when they needed it, this Arsenal side had produced a rousing and unexpected 2-0 win to keep alive their hopes of making it beyond the group stage for a 16th consecutive year.

A win of this importance and magnitude was certainly worth celebrating, but at the same time, it must have occurred to both players and fans that an early exit would help their chances of winning the more attainable Premier League this season.

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

It is now 11 years since Arsenal won the Premier League, and while Arsene Wenger was still the manager, it was a very different era with a team boasting Thierry Henry, Robert Pires and Dennis Bergkamp still playing in the cramped surroundings of Highbury.

Since then, Arsenal have moved next door to the splendid Emirates, but they are still waiting to parade the Premier League trophy around their new home.

At the weekend, Arsenal won their fifth consecutive game in the Premier League, an impressive 3-0 win away at Swansea City to share the lead at the top of the table with Manchester City.

There is now a growing sense of optimism that Arsenal might finally have the squad and the belief to mount a sustained challenge for the title over the coming months.

And the inescapable truth is this pursuit of the title would be immeasurably enhanced if Arsenal were to exit the Champions League, and, ideally, Europe altogether.

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

It might appear unambitious, cowardly even, but Arsenal would have a far greater chance of winning the Premier League if they had only that, and an FA Cup defence, to concentrate on from the beginning of next year.

It is why Arsenal’s exit from the Capital One Cup last week was not greeted with any great despair or concern.

Of course, losing 3-0 to Sheffield Wednesday was unwelcome and embarrassing, but as the Arsenal squad departed south Yorkshire, they would have also been well aware that while they could win one less trophy now, they were also spared a possible four more games.

The defeat at Hillsborough also served to prove that Arsenal’s squad is not as deep as they would like and not prepared for an assault on both the Premier League and Champions League, never mind both domestic cup competitions.

As they proved two weeks ago, Arsenal will not go easy in the Champions League, for it is a competition the club and Wenger both ache to win for the first time. 

Scott Heppell/Associated Press

There is not a bigger club across the continent who are still waiting to win the Champions League than Arsenal.

And yet, should they stumble in Munich this week and find themselves rooted to the bottom of Group F, there should be no sense of angst at Arsenal.

It would be best if they stayed at the bottom, too, and thus avoided having the unwanted consolation prize of a Europa League place.

Ultimately, any exit from Europe should be embraced by Arsenal as an opportunity, and not an embarrassment.

Wenger tacitly acknowledged in September that the Champions League might be beyond his squad when, as reported by Neil McLeman of the Daily Mirror, he played down their chances and declared: “We are ambitious, but we are not dreamers.”

Unshackled from the tournament, and a potential seven more draining games, Arsenal would then have a distinct advantage over both Manchester City and Manchester United in the Premier League.

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

As their rivals trek across Europe and have to play three games in a week, which naturally exposes them to the risk of more fatigue and injuries, Arsenal would be rested and able to simply concentrate on their league and FA Cup fixtures each weekend.

It was the absence of any European football that so nearly delivered Liverpool their first league title in 24 years in the 2013-14 season.

They were ultimately denied by their own implosion, but with no European fixtures throughout the spring, Liverpool were able to build a momentum and a winning run that should have led to the title.

Manchester United benefited, too, from not being in Europe last season; able to focus solely on the Premier League, they were better prepared to force their way back into the top four.

Ahead of the referendum on Britain’s EU membership, there is a growing campaign to exit Europe; Arsenal should join it without any shame or regret, for it is their best route to ending their long wait to be champions at home.