Breeders' Cup 2015: Updated Weather Forecast, Odds and Field Predictions
It's a cool and cloudy day in Louisville, Kentucky, as the second-day roster of races for the 2015 Breeders' Cup are run at the historic Keeneland ovals. The track has been dry so far, but chances of rain jump to 35 percent early this afternoon (via Weather.com).
The turf might remain good-to-firm and the dirt good-to-fast, but there will be at least a minor threat of rain throughout the afternoon, so those conditions could end up deteriorating.
Here are the odds and field predictions for the remaining races:
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| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Hard Not To Like | 8-1 |
| 2. Sentiero Italia | 15-1 |
| 3. Legatissmo | 5-2 |
| 4. Sharla Rae | 30-1 |
| 5. Photo Call | 15-1 |
| 6. Queen's Jewel | 5-1 |
| 7. Watsdachances | 20-1 |
| 8. Dacita | 8-1 |
| 9. Miss France | 6-1 |
| 10. Bawina | 15-1 |
| 11. Stephanie's Kitten | 10-1 |
| 12. Secret Gesture | 10-1 |
| Also Eligible: 13. Elektrum | 20-1 |
| Also Eligible: 14. Talmada | 15-1 |
By the time the Filly and Mare Turf kicks off at 1:25 p.m. ET, there is a 35-percent chance of rain, according to Weather.com, and with the overcast sky, there could be enough moisture in the air to dampen the track slightly, even without the rain.
Favorite Legatissimo has won three of her past five (via Race Horse Nation) coming into this one and finished just a nose back in a pair of second-place finishes in the two she didn't win. The last three of those races were against Filly and Mare fields, so the three-year-old has been holding up well against more experienced horses.
As the Daily Racing Form notes, Queen's Jewel beat the favorite in two big races in France earlier this year, but she's coming off two consecutive poor finishes. Dacita, on the otherhand, is coming off from a quick performance to win the Balston Spa at Saratoga last August.
I'm expecting slightly damp field conditions for this race and for Legatissimo to win, with Dacita to place and Queen's Jewel to show.
| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Fioretti | 20-1 |
| 2. Dame Dorothy | 15-1 |
| 3. Taris | 6-1 |
| 4. La Verdad | 5-1 |
| 5. Artemus Agrotera | 12-1 |
| 6. Super Magesty | 12-1 |
| 7. Wavell Avenue | 15-1 |
| 8. Stonetastic | 8-1 |
| 9. Sweet Whiskey | 30-1 |
| 10. Kiss to Remember | 30-1 |
| 11. Judy the Beauty | 8-1 |
| 12. Room for Me | 30-1 |
| 13. Merry Meadow | 20-1 |
| 14. Cavorting | 7-2 |
Expect the rain to either continue to hold off, or else ease up, when the Filly and Mare Sprint starts just after two. As the Daily Racing Form notes, favorite Cavorting has never lost at a sprint-distance race, but the horse is challenged here by a poor post position.
Last year's winner, Judy the Beauty, has not wowed anybody this year, finishing a second and two thirds (via Horse Racing Nation).
While the track might be a bit below good condition, I don't expect conditions will be a big factor in this race, and I'm picking La Verdad to start fast and pull away for the win, with Taris second and Cavorting in the money at third.
| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Alsvid | 30-1 |
| 2. Kobe's Back | 20-1 |
| 3. Stallwalkin' Dude | 20-1 |
| 4. Limousine Liberal | 15-1 |
| 5. Runhappy | 7-1 |
| 6. Ivan Fallunovalot | 15-1 |
| 7. Holy Boss | 20-1 |
| 8. Wild Dude | 6-1 |
| 9. Masochistic | 12-1 |
| 10. Salutos Amigos | 15-1 |
| 11. Barbados | 20-1 |
| 12. Big Macher | 10-1 |
| 13. Private Zone | 3-1 |
| 14. Favorite Tale | 15-1 |
| Also Eligible: 15. Gentleman's Bet | 30-1 |
Another favorite gets a poor draw in the post for the Sprint, with Private Zone stuck out in the 12 spot. Wild Dude has won two straight at this distance and placed in a seven-furlong race in between those two victories. I think he'll thrive in the middle of a fast pack on a still good track and take the day.
I like Runhappy to finish just back in second and Barbados to surprise a little bit and show.
| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Grand Arch | 12-1 |
| 2. Recepta | 30-1 |
| 3. Make Believe | 4-1 |
| 4. Mondialiste | 12-1 |
| 5. Impassable | 8-1 |
| 6. Tourist | 15-1 |
| 7. Tepin | 15-1 |
| 8. Obviously | 15-1 |
| 9. Esoterique | 7-2 |
| 10. Mshawish | 12-1 |
| 11. Karakontie | 6-1 |
| 12. Time Test | 6-1 |
By the time we get to the Mile at 3:30 p.m. ET, there's some chance the track will have seen rain at some point in the day. Esoterique comes in here on a two-race winning streak, and I like her to prevail again here. I'm picking last year's winner, Karakontie to make a race of it and place with Obviously slipping in at the show position.
| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Conquest Big E | 12-1 |
| 2. Riker | 10-1 |
| 3. Greenpointcrusader | 5-1 |
| 4. Unbridled Outlaw | 12-1 |
| 5. Cocked and Loaded | 12-1 |
| 6. Rated R Superstar | 20-1 |
| 7. Brody's Cause | 4-1 |
| 8. Tale of S'avall | 20-1 |
| 9. Exaggerator | 8-1 |
| 10. Ralis | 12-1 |
| 11. Isotherm | 15-1 |
| 12. Swipe | 15-1 |
| 13. Nyquist | 6-1 |
| 14. Waterloo's Bridge | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible: 15. Sliding Spring | 20-1 |
| Also Eligible: 16. Tom's Ready | 20-1 |
I expect cloudy skies, but no rain, when the field breaks for the Juvenile at 4:10 p.m ET. Brody's Cause has won two straight and beat rival Exaggerator at the Breeders' Futurity at the beginning of the month (via Horse Racing Nation). I like Brody's Cause to win again here, with Riker slipping in for place and Exaggerator hanging on for show.
| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Golden Horn | 3-5 |
| 2. Shining Copper | 30-1 |
| 3. Big John B | 20-1 |
| 4. Slumber | 15-1 |
| 5. Da Big Hoss | 30-1 |
| 6. Twilight Eclipse | 15-1 |
| 7. Big Blue Kitten | 10-1 |
| 8. Cage Fighter | 30-1 |
| 9. Found | 8-1 |
| 10. The Pizza Man | 12-1 |
| 11. Red Rifle | 20-1 |
| 12. Ordak Dan | 30-1 |
Golden Horn is a huge favorite in the Turf. To quote the Daily Racing Form, his "B race wins this." The turf conditions might not be ideal when this one goes down just before 5 p.m., but they shouldn't be a factor, either. Expect Golden Horn to cruise here.
Found will once more be a bridesmaid, finishing runner-up to Golden Horn as she did at the Irish Championship Stakes last September. I'm picking Big Blue Kitten to show.
| Horse: | Odds: |
| 1. Tonalist | 4-1 |
| 2. Keen Ice | 8-1 |
| 3. Frosted | 12-1 |
| 4. American Pharoah | 4-5 |
| 5. Gleneagles | 20-1 |
| 6. Effinex | 20-1 |
| 7. Smooth Roller | 12-1 |
| 8. Hard Aces | 30-1 |
| 9. Honor Code | 4-1 |
| 10. Beholder | Scratched |
If enough precipitation does build up over the course of the afternoon to turn the track a bit muddy in time for the Classic at 5:35 p.m. ET, it could create a bit of drama for the main event.
Then again, we've all seen American Pharoah run away from the field in absolutely sloppy conditions. He had a field day romping in the mud at the Preakness.
Either way, with Beholder scratched, the main competition for the Triple Crown winner figures to be Keen Ice, who finally beat him after chasing him all year long at Saratoga last August. American Pharoah is the kind of athlete who has had destiny riding on his shoulder all year long, and I just don't see him losing now.
I'll take Keen Ice to run a game race for another second-place finisher in the year's final big run. For show, I'm going with Frosted to make a big early push and then drop back to third place late.
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