Updated 2015 NASCAR Title Odds: Week 33
Two rounds down, two to go—and eight drivers left to fight it out for the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship.
That’s the scenario as we move into Round 3 of the Chase with Sunday’s Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500, at the circuit's oldest track—venerable and quaint Martinsville Speedway.
The southern Virginia landmark promises lots of beating and banging, tires will wear out quickly, brakes will get overheated and, more than likely, the race will be determined by who has just enough gas to reach the finish line.
Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth and last season’s big surprise, Ryan Newman, were all eliminated from the Chase after this past Sunday’s race at Talladega.
Eight drivers remain in the playoffs, and they all come into Sunday’s race tied in points at 4,000 each: Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.
While the original field has now been cut from 16 to just eight, the odds are also going to be much tighter. Let’s see how things play out:
Kyle Busch
1 of 8
Working in his favor: Kyle Busch did exactly what he needed to do to advance to Round 3, but it sure was touch-and-go in the waning laps of Sunday’s race at Talladega. It seemed that one minute he was above the Chase cutoff; the next minute he was below it.
Busch now has to ratchet things up even more in the first race of Round 3. He likes short-track racing and has had decent performance at Martinsville. A win will automatically give him a ticket into the final championship race at Homestead. You better believe he’s going to go all-out to win this one.
Working against him: Busch’s Chase history is one of great anticipation going in, typically followed by premature elimination. Sure, he’s on to Round 3, but will he be able to avoid the mishaps that beset—and ultimately eliminated—his two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth?
Busch and Carl Edwards are JGR’s two remaining hopes to win the championship this season, and I’m not particularly feeling it from either.
Odds: 50-1
Martin Truex Jr.
2 of 8
Working in his favor: Martin Truex’s Jr.’s “Never Give Up” slogan this season continues to propel him forward. He’s gone further now than any other single-car team in Chase history. He’s got confidence and a team that thinks—no, make that KNOWS—it has what it takes to make it to the final round.
Working against him: Now that the points have been reset to start Round 3, Truex can breathe a little easier. But at the same time, he cannot afford to have even one bad race in the next three.
We saw what one bad race did to Hamlin at Talladega. And while he’s gotten this far, Truex has no teammates to lean upon or to help him (although I wouldn’t be surprised if Richard Childress Racing’s drivers give Truex some backup due to the technical alliance Furniture Row Racing has with RCR.
Odds: 45-1
Brad Keselowski
3 of 8
Working in his favor: Brad Keselowski has been down this road before, knowing what it takes to survive the pressure and go on to win the Sprint Cup championship, as he did in 2012. Keselowski and teammate Joey Logano are probably the most formidable teammates still remaining in the Chase. If some of Logano’s recent success—winning all three races in Round 2—rubs off on Keselowski in Round 3, it’s likely that Team Penske won’t be stopped the rest of the way to the championship.
Working against him: I like to go with my gut, and more often than not that gut feeling is usually wrong. I can’t put my finger on a reason, but Keselowski just hasn’t had what he’s had in recent years. He won six races last year, but has just one win this year. As much as I hate to say it, Keselowski fans, your driver is likely not going to advance to the final round. I just don’t see it, and my gut just doesn’t feel it.
Odds: 40-1
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Carl Edwards
4 of 8
Working in his favor: Carl Edwards is in a great place now as one of two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers remaining in the Chase. He keeps doing what he needs to do, he isn’t flashy or showy and he has had a quiet confidence this season, much like in 2011 when he tied for the championship before losing to Tony Stewart on a tiebreaker.
Working against him: I’ll be honest. I expected at least one or two JGR drivers to be eliminated in Round 2, but not the guys that actually were. I expected both Edwards and Kyle Busch to fail to advance to Round 3, and it was Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth that didn’t instead. While Edwards has a good record at Texas (three wins) and Phoenix (two wins), I still have my doubts that he will advance past Round 3.
Odds: 35-1
Kevin Harvick
5 of 8
Working in his favor: I said it last week, and I’ll say it again this week: He’s got the best car, he's the defending Sprint Cup champ, he has the best crew chief and he thrives on pressure. That he was able to advance past Talladega, even with all the resulting controversy, showed Harvick won’t let anything get in his way of a second consecutive championship. However…read on.
Working against him: Given the number of other drivers who are ticked off at Harvick for what happened at Talladega, Harvick could be a marked man in Round 3. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those eliminated at Talladega takes out their wrath on Harvick, claiming it was an “accident.” Up to Talladega, Harvick was my pick to do it again. Yet, as much as I’d like to see him win a second straight title, I’m beginning to not see it in the cards.
Odds: 25-1
Jeff Gordon
6 of 8
Working in his favor: Given the up-and-down season he’s had, not to mention failing to reach Victory Lane even once thus far in the season, who would have predicted Jeff Gordon would have made it to Round 3 of the Chase?
Now he’s the lone representative remaining from Hendrick Motorsports. After earning the pole at Talladega, I’m convinced Gordon still has some fuel left in his tank to potentially win his fifth Sprint Cup championship in his final racing season. What a way that would be to go out, wouldn’t it?
Working against him: Not having a win is one thing, but Ryan Newman proved you didn’t need a win to reach the final round last season. But with no Hendrick Motorsports teammates remaining in the Chase, can Gordon hoist the weight of the championship hopes of the entire country on his shoulders?
While I think Gordon will make the final round, it’s going to take everything to go his way for him to win the championship. I’m just not sure he has that.
Odds: 15-1
Kurt Busch
7 of 8
Working in his favor: Given the season he’s had, starting with missing the first three races while serving a NASCAR suspension, Kurt Busch was one of the last drivers I’d expect to see in Round 3, let alone even make the Chase. But now that he’s in the playoffs, he’s coming on strong at the right time. With crew chief Tony Gibson and a crack pit-road team, Busch could be one of the biggest surprises of this year’s Chase—all the way to his second career championship.
Working against him: Stewart-Haas Racing has been a one-for-all and all-for-one operation for the last two seasons. But when you get to this deep in the Chase, it becomes every driver for himself. If more focus is placed upon Kevin Harvick, Busch may be left to fend for himself in the remaining four races. And that could be the difference between having a legitimate shot at the title and falling short.
Odds: 10-1
Joey Logano
8 of 8
Working in his favor: Given the dominating performance he had in Round 2, winning all three races in that tilt, it’s hard to pick against Joey Logano going forward. He’s become the man to beat in the Chase. I don’t see him stopping the winning streak, either. He can easily win at each of the next three tracks: Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix.
Working against him: As I said in last week’s odds, there’s very little working against Logano. Sure, he has to win again to get locked into the championship round, but given the momentum and the sky-high confidence he and his team have now, it’s hard to think otherwise.
But at the same time, Logano has to guard against being overconfident. Look at what happened to Hamlin: He came into Talladega in second place and looked like a lock to reach Round 3. And we know how that wound up.
Plus, Logano has to remember there are still a number of other drivers who wouldn’t mind getting revenge from some of the run-ins they’ve had with him either this year or in years past. Hello, Matt Kenseth, are you listening?
Odds: 5-1
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