NBA Predictions 2015-16: 10 Hidden Gems Who Will Emerge This Season
Feel like getting ahead of the curve?
The 2015-16 NBA season will inevitably lead to some breakouts as formerly bench-bound players become key members of rotations. Stars emerge each and every year, but sometimes they come from roster members you might not expect.
Hard as they may be to find, these hidden gems can be rather significant. Unearthing one provides a huge boost for the organizations lucky enough to have them under contract and can often either push a squad to the next level or help expedite a rebuilding process.
Usually, they're on the younger side, but that's not always the case.
These 10 players have more in common than being on the brink of a breakout. They're all set up to experience brand-new levels of success during the 2015-16 campaign, taking advantage of opportunities for increased playing time and corresponding chances to show off their burgeoning skills.
Nemanja Bjelica
1 of 10
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Position: PF
Age: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 22.2 PER (for Fenerbahce Ulker)
Normally, I'm hesitant to say a rookie will emerge as a hidden gem. But Nemanja Bjelica isn't your average first-year player.
Not only is he a 27-year-old power forward with plenty of experience racking up minutes in international leagues, but he's flown completely under the radar ever since joining the Minnesota Timberwolves. After all, he's not a first-round pick; he was drafted in the second round...five years ago by the Washington Wizards.
But Bjelica is ready to make an instant impact for the Wolves, thanks to his ability to serve as a de facto point forward and space out the court with a working three-point shot. After hitting 41 percent of his deep looks for Laboral Kutxa and Fenerbahce Ulker in 2013-14, then drilling 37.2 of them this past season, the big man connected at a 45.8 percent clip this preseason.
That shooting touch alone makes him worth monitoring, and his playmaking strengths only add to the appeal.
In early October, NBA.com's Kyle Ratke was already feeling the hype:
"My goodness is he special to watch. He doesn't have a chiseled body. He isn't all that fast. But he does everything right. He pump fakes, finds ways to get away from defenders. Once he attracts a double-team, he'll kick out to an open teammate, often times ending with a hockey assist. And when he wants to score, he can score. It's not hard seeing him playing 20-25 minutes per game by the end of the season considering he can play both forward positions.
Interim head coach Sam Mitchell has preached ball movement all camp. The definition of that so far has been Bjelica's game.
"
The Serbian forward won't make much noise in the Rookie of the Year race, but he'll morph into a rotation member for Minnesota before too long.
Jae Crowder
2 of 10
Team: Boston Celtics
Position: SF
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 7.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 13.9 PER
Jae Crowder can do it all.
A consistent physical presence on both ends of the floor, this 25-year-old small forward thrives as one of those players who's good at everything, great at nothing and bad at—once more—nothing. He can attack the hoop, knock down shots from the perimeter, make proper passes, lock down on the defensive side and do just about anything else that head coach Brad Stevens desires.
"I think Jae's been really good," Stevens revealed this offseason, per Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe. "He's aggressive. He's been an everyday guy. Nothing matters as far as the circumstances surrounding it, he plays hard. He plays really hard and he gives everything he's got. If he makes a mistake, he usually corrects it and he's the kind of guy you like to have on your team."
It's unlikely that Crowder becomes a true star. He doesn't have the offensive ability to thrive as a go-to scoring option, especially given the burgeoning options Boston boasts in the backcourt.
But he doesn't need to reach celestial status in order to prove his value to this Beantown bunch. So long as he continues to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc—he knocked down 55.6 percent of his triples during preseason action—and thrives as a defensive leader, he'll emerge as a key player on a team that should challenge for a second consecutive playoff berth.
P.J. Hairston
3 of 10
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Position: SG/SF
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks, 9.0 PER
Consider P.J. Hairston a product of opportunity.
Even though he wasn't inordinately impressive during his first season with the Charlotte Hornets, he now figures to slot in as the team's starting small forward. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's shoulder surgery opened the door, and the inconsistency of Jeremy Lamb throughout the exhibition schedule basically sealed the deal. Hairston will have to play well in order to maintain his grip on that role, but he's more than capable of doing so.
Now, he just needs to gain confidence.
Hairston has the stroke of an adept marksman, and he functioned as such during his final season with North Carolina. However, he knocked down only 30.1 percent of his triples as a rookie and couldn't find twine during his own preseason slate.
Establishing some sort of rhythm is crucial, and it should only help that head coach Steve Clifford is expressing confidence in him with a starting nod for the regular-season opener.
"I think P.J. will end up at [the 3], then we'll just have to figure it out from there. I want to be able to play four out as much as we can," Clifford told the Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell, explaining that he wants to surround Al Jefferson with as many shooters as possible. "I would say P.J. with the first group gives us space shooting and a defender who can guard primary scorers."
Once he starts seeing the ball go through the hoop, the talent should take over.
Justin Holiday
4 of 10
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Position: SG/SF
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 4.3 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, 12.1 PER
Let's play a game.
I'm going to post two sets of per-36-minute stats (as well as some shooting percentages and advanced metrics). Your goal is to tell me which players the numbers belong to:
| Player 1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 46.0 | 28.6 | 15.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Player 2 | 13.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 38.7 | 32.1 | 12.1 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
The first is the slightly superior one, thanks to an ability to finish around the hoop and play more efficient offensive basketball. But the latter was actually the better perimeter shooter and distributor, and more playing time likely would've allowed him to assert himself as a similarly skilled defender.
Player 2 here is Justin Holiday, with the stats stemming from his final go-round with the Golden State Warriors. His competitor is 2012-13 DeMarre Carroll, right before Atlanta Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer began working with him.
It's not out of the question that Holiday experiences a similar jump under the right tutelage, and he's a perfect fit for a Hawks system that requires perimeter shooting from all wings, constant ball movement and the ability to lock down and play passing lanes on the defensive end.
Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore will be the early favorites for minutes as they attempt to replace Carroll, who is now with the Toronto Raptors. Tim Hardaway Jr. will be in the mix as well. But don't be surprised when it's this 26-year-old who emerges as Coach Bud's personal favorite.
Kris Humphries
5 of 10
Team: Washington Wizards
Position: PF
Age: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 15.4 PER
During his rookie season with the Utah Jazz, Kris Humphries took six shots from beyond the arc and made two of them. But since that 2004-05 campaign, the power forward has gone 0-of-20 from downtown, establishing himself as a rebounding specialist and interior presence who doesn't exactly space out the court for his teammates.
So much for that.
Throughout the Washington Wizards' preseason slate, Humphries fired away 28 times from three-point range and made 10 of those attempts. This isn't something he's consistently done during prior exhibition seasons, either, as he had taken just 10 deep tries in the last five go-rounds.
If Humphries is going to play as more of a stretch 4, that opens up plenty more opportunities for the Washington Wizards, especially now that head coach Randy Wittman is willing to accept more modern trends and build off the success of the last postseason run.
This development should allow the 30-year-old to thrive as the first big off the bench, playing behind either Marcin Gortat or Nene and ensuring that the lane is never too crowded for the aggressive driving tendencies of John Wall.
If Nene can't get it going, Humphries may even take over as the starting power forward, thanks to this newfound stretchiness and his work on the boards.
Joffrey Lauvergne
6 of 10
Team: Denver Nuggets
Position: PF/C
Age: 24
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 3.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, 10.5 PER
Comfort has set in for Joffrey Lauvergne, as he told reporters in early October (via Examiner.com):
"I feel very comfortable. I want to keep doing what has been working. I have improved but there's also the fact that the coaches now know me. They saw me in practice before summer league, during summer league, in EuroBasket, and since then. They know me and know what I can do. I want to keep understanding what the coach wants and what the team needs from me.
"
The 24-year-old big man from France continued to prove himself throughout the entire slate of offseason action.
During summer league? He averaged 11 points and eight rebounds while knocking down 56.2 percent of his shots from the field in four appearances.
While suiting up for his country in the EuroBasket competition? Lauvergne posted 9.6 points and 5.6 boards per contest despite spending under 18 minutes per game on the floor for France, which he helped lead to a bronze medal. He shot 58.6 percent from the field and made half of his three-point attempts.
During preseason action with the Denver Nuggets? With four starts in six appearances, he logged 13.3 points and 8.3 rebounds during his typical outing, hitting his field-goal attempts at a 59.3 percent clip and again drilling half of his deep tries.
With Jusuf Nurkic still rehabbing his knee, the door is wide open for Lauvergne to take over as the starting center in the Mile High City. And despite stiff competition from Nikola Jokic, that's exactly what he should do, thanks to his shooting range, finishing ability and work on the glass.
Meyers Leonard
7 of 10
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Position: PF/C
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 14.8 PER
Before Meyers Leonard became the ninth player in NBA history to knock down 50 percent of his field-goal attempts, 40 percent of his triples and 90 percent of his looks at the charity stripe while playing at least 15 minutes per game and taking a significant number of three-point attempts (at least one per game), the club was filled with established stars.
Larry Bird, Jose Calderon, Kevin Durant, Steve Kerr, Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Mark Price were literally the only members of that exclusive group. Good luck finding a name there that doesn't resonate in most basketball-watching households.
The ninth member can do more than shoot.
As if averaging double-digit rebounds per 36 minutes each of the last two seasons wasn't enough, he's also emerged as one of the league's better rim protectors—albeit without as much time spent on the court as some of the other stud interior defenders.
According to NBA.com's SportVU data, the 23-year-old Illinois product is coming off a season in which he held opponents to 42.3 percent shooting at the hoop while facing 3.5 attempts per game. Among the 150 players who contested at least three looks during the average contest, only Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka and Andrew Bogut were more stingy.
And in case you're worried that Leonard is benefitting from a lack of involvement, it's playing time holding back the number of shots he faced, not immobility.
Leonard will have to fight a bevy of young frontcourt options for playing time, but the Portland Trail Blazers should turn to him early and often. He's a vastly superior option to Noah Vonleh, Cliff Alexander, Ed Davis, Mason Plumlee and Chris Kaman.
C.J. McCollum
8 of 10
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Position: PG/SG
Age: 24
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks, 13.1 PER
Let's stick in Rip City and turn to Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman:
"[C.J.] McCollum compensates for a lack of size and explosiveness with a terrific handle, an advanced perimeter arsenal and a high basketball IQ. Though it's his one-on-one scoring and playmaking ability that fuel his upside, he's flashed the versatility to generate offense playing on and off the ball. The fact he's such a threatening spot-up shooter (41.6 percent on catch-and-shoots last year) helps him fit right in alongside Damian Lillard.
Wesley Matthews, Steve Blake and LaMarcus Aldridge departing ultimately helped open the door for McCollum, who'll finally get a crack at regular minutes. He's played fewer than 16 minutes a game in each of his first two NBA seasons. This year, it shouldn't be long before McCollum emerges as one of the team's go-to options.
"
If anything, C.J. McCollum should quickly become the Portland Trail Blazers' No. 2 option, ceding opportunities only to Damian Lillard. This squad has a dearth of established options on the offensive end, and the versatility of the 24-year-old's game makes him one of the few truly threatening presences.
Plus, as Wasserman also mentioned, he's coming off a stellar postseason.
In five games, he averaged 17 points while shooting 47.8 percent from the field and an identical percentage from downtown. That was the coming-out party, and he's not going to decline all that significantly when the sample size grows much larger.
By the end of the season, with Leonard and McCollum both panning out, the Blazers should have three legitimate offensive options to work with during their rebuilding process.
Elijah Millsap
9 of 10
Team: Utah Jazz
Position: SG/SF
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 7.9 PER
If you expect offensive production from Elijah Millsap, you're going to be disappointed. He's just not a threat in the scoring categories, plagued by the absence of a perimeter jumper and any serious handling ability.
But Millsap is an ace defender who should earn a sizable role with the Utah Jazz, serving as the primary backup small forward and filling in when the team lets Gordon Hayward serve as a point forward. Lucas Falk examined this possibility for Salt City Hoops:
"Snyder has mixed and matched all of the wing players in some variation of the 'triple wing' offense. My personal favorite would be Hayward, Hood and Elijah Millsap. The Jazz certainly won’t get a lot of offensive production from Millsap, but his defense is excellent. Instead of having Hayward or Hood expend energy guarding the opposing team's best wing player, Millsap can answer the call and play lockdown defense. Playing Millsap with the starters also means that Burks could provide a scoring punch off the bench, masking some of his defensive issues while he plays against other teams’ second units.
"
During the 2014-15 season, the Jazz allowed 99.1 points per 100 possessions when Millsap was on the floor. But when he was on the bench, that number skyrocketed all the way to 107. Interestingly enough, not a single member of the Jazz topped that disparity while playing more than 100 possessions. Not even Rudy Gobert, whose name is now rightfully being bandied about as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
It was virtually impossible to score on Millsap from anywhere on the court. His defensive tenacity helped him hold his matchups to 37.8 percent shooting from the field—pretty darn impressive considering those opponents typically knocked down 43.1 percent of their looks, per NBA.com.
Don't be surprised when Millsap turns into the second coming of Tony Allen, carving out quite the role for himself on this defense-dominated Jazz outfit.
Kyle O'Quinn
10 of 10
Team: New York Knicks
Position: PF/C
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals 0.8 blocks, 14.8 PER
During the 2014-15 campaign, Kyle O'Quinn shot 49.2 percent from the field for the Orlando Magic and did a decent job spacing out defenses with his perimeter shooting. But since joining the New York Knicks, he's been even better, expanding his range and asserting himself as both an impact defender and strong rebounding presence.
O'Quinn likely won't be the starting power forward or center in the Big Apple. Those roles are currently reserved for Robin Lopez and Kristaps Porzingis. However, the 25-year-old should be the first big off the bench, playing a major role for an up-and-coming Eastern Conference squad that needs his defensive ability and well-rounded play.
"Me just being in the mix is probably the best thing for me," O'Quinn explained before reflecting on a string of games with the Magic that left him watching from the bench far too often, per Newsday.com's Al Iannazzone. "Starting, first big off the bench, second sub off the bench—it really doesn't matter as long as I'm in the mix. It's a team game. Whatever the team needs, I'm willing to do that even if it's sacrificing my time for another player."
This season, he shouldn't have to make nearly as many sacrifices.
O'Quinn might not post glamorous numbers, but his production should be palpable as the Knicks look to legitimize their playoff hopes in the early going of the 2015-16 season.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and RealGM.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@fromal09.
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