Michigan vs. Minnesota: Complete Game Preview
The No. 15 Michigan Wolverines will look to bounce back from a deflating loss when they challenge the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday, Oct. 31 in Minneapolis.
Michigan (5-2) lost to Michigan State on the final play of the game, but head coach Jim Harbaugh will attempt to right the Wolverines before the battle for the Little Brown Jug. Michigan holds a 73-25-3 advantage in the series.
However, Minnesota (4-3) is currently in possession of the trophy, since the Gophers limited the Maize and Blue to 171 offensive yards and earned a 30-14 victory in Ann Arbor last season.
According to Odds Shark, Michigan is a 13.5-point favorite. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Michigan Keys to Victory
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Consistently Create Running Lanes
The offensive line has put together an inconsistent year.
While the season opener was rough, Utah has a great defensive line. Michigan overpowered lesser opponents in Oregon State, UNLV and BYU, but it's been a roller coaster since then.
Numbers say the Wolverines had their third-best rushing game against Maryland, but the eye test told a different story. Michigan rebounded relatively well against Northwestern, then struggled mightily against a stout Michigan State front.
The Wolverines rely on the ground game, but they haven't been able to trust the offensive line every week.
Win the 1st Half
Michigan has posted a 38-10 advantage in the first quarter, but that's far from the same story for Minnesota. The Gophers have registered just 10 points and allowed 47 in the opening frame.
However, that deficit hasn't doomed Minnesota, which recovered in three different games after trailing through 15 minutes.
When the Wolverines smashed Northwestern for 21 during the opening frame, though, the outcome was all but official. Michigan's defense can shut down the Gophers, so an early Wolverines lead could be devastating.
Minnesota Keys to Victory
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No Turnovers
It's difficult to imagine Minnesota will have any success on the ground against Michigan's defense, so quarterback Mitch Leidner must propel the offense.
That's a scary thought.
Leidner has thrown four interceptions in the last three outings. In two of those, the Gophers lost and managed fewer than 100 rushing yards. Plus, only 11 programs have lost more fumbles than Minnesota's eight.
For the nation's 101st-ranked offense to have any chance at springing an upset, protecting the ball and not allowing Michigan to gain tremendous field position is imperative.
Multiple Takeaways
It really is this simple. The Gophers will not beat Michigan without some game-changing plays on the defensive side. Unfortunately for Minnesota, it's a below-average unit at forcing turnovers.
Michigan's defense is also far from excellent at creating takeaways, but the Wolverines atone for that shortcoming by allowing fewer than 10 points per contest. The Gophers have surrendered 23.1.
Nevertheless, turnovers can swing a game entirely, especially if—like last season—Minnesota comes up with a defensive touchdown.
Michigan Players to Watch
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De'Veon Smith, Running Back
Once Saturday rolls around, De'Veon Smith's last truly above-average game will have taken place more than a month ago.
Smith pounded BYU for 125 yards and a touchdown, but an ankle injury suffered in the second half of the blowout has slowed the junior running back.
He missed the trip to Maryland. When Michigan jumped out to the convincing lead over Northwestern, the coaches limited Smith to eight carries. Last week, he managed just 46 yards on 19 attempts.
While Smith isn't necessarily in danger of losing his starting job, Karan Higdon and Drake Johnson are pushing for regular snaps. A strong performance would help Smith remain the No. 1.
Willie Henry, Defensive End
Chris Wormley started hot, but he's cooled off since playing more on the interior. Mario Ojemudia was playing tremendous football, but an Achilles injury ended his season.
In terms of which Michigan defensive lineman is playing the most dominant football, Willie Henry has filled the "next man up" role. The senior defensive end has racked up 7.5 tackles for loss in his last four outings, registering six sacks and adding two pass breakups.
Whether it's closing a running lane or finishing a tackle, Henry should be a regular presence in the Minnesota backfield.
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Minnesota Players to Watch
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KJ Maye, Wide Receiver
The battle between Michigan State wideout Aaron Burbridge and Michigan cornerback Jourdan Lewis was fun to watch. Burbridge even bested Lewis half the time.
Can KJ Maye accomplish anything similar?
A 5'10", 194-pound senior, Maye has a team-leading 33 receptions, 350 yards and three touchdowns. He's also rushed for 38 yards and a score.
Maye is coming off the best performance of his college career, but he's entering a matchup with one of his toughest tests. Maye likely needs to win the battle at least seven times for Minnesota to have a chance.
The Linebackers
Cody Poock, Jack Lynn and De'Vondre Campbell—who had a 30-yard pick-six last season—are the keys to stopping Michigan's running game.
When the Wolverines struggle on the ground, the main culprit is the absence of a push from the offensive line. Minnesota's linebackers will be tasked with finishing their tackles near the line of scrimmage.
With at least 34 tackles each, the three 'backers rank second, third and fourth on the Gophers. They'll probably be the top three tacklers on Saturday.
What They're Saying
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Michigan
According to Brendan F. Quinn of MLive.com, Harbaugh said on the Inside Michigan show that the coaching staff checks statistics to see where the team needs to improve but is still focused on being better every day.
"Looking at all phases of your team, your program. There are analytical things that (the staff) is going to look at, but it still goes back to our basic measure, that we have to be better today than we were yesterday and try to be better tomorrow than we were today," he said.
Minnesota
According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, Gophers coach Jerry Kill told WCCO that one of the biggest reasons for Michigan's success is Harbaugh's philosophy change.
"I think it's a mentality [for the Wolverines] more than anything. They're going to be a physical football team," he said. "Are they where [Harbaugh] wants them to be? No, but he's got them playing hard, trying to get back to Bo Schembechler football."
Prediction
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The Gophers will hang around until halftime, but Michigan's defense is simply too much for Minnesota's mediocre offense to handle.
Smith tallies his first rushing score since September, and the Wolverines take a 13-3 lead into the break. After halftime, quarterback Jake Rudock connects with Amara Darboh for a touchdown, and a Leidner interception seals the Gophers' fate.
Michigan adds a late touchdown and improves to 6-2, while Minnesota drops to 4-4 and faces an uphill climb to earn bowl eligibility for the fourth straight season.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Minnesota 3
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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