Breaking Down Manchester United's Champions League Chances Halfway Through Group

With three games played in their first campaign back in the Champions League proper, what do we know about Manchester United's prospects in Europe's premier competition this season?

United's away draw in CSKA Moscow garnered an underwhelming response from television pundits and fans.

Bernat Armangue/Associated Press/Associated Press

Rio Ferdinand, in his capacity as analyst on BT Sport, said (via Nicholas Godden of MailOnline): "I can't imagine the frustration that Louis van Gaal must be feeling, from going to the weekend against Everton (a 3-0 win) to this, where the intensity doesn't seem anywhere near the same."

Godden also quoted Paul Scholes as saying on the same broadcast, "Before the game you take the point but when you watch Manchester United you expect them to be better." 

Twitter was awash with criticism, as covered by Darragh Murphy of SportsJoe.ie. 

And yet United, having been underwhelming in the first half, actually fought back strongly, dominated both possession and chance creation in the second half—as detailed here—and earned an important point.

Van Gaal said in his post-match press conference, per BBC Sport: "We are very strong at home and I hope we can win these games so we are nearly qualified or qualified. We are on schedule after the PSV [Eindhoven] defeat, which was strange for us." 

He is obviously referring to being on schedule for progression. It would be intriguing to know his thoughts on the subject of how far United can go in Europe.

In truth, given the abject collapse that has taken place since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson, qualification from the group stage probably represents par.

The team that got to three finals in four seasons in 2008, 2009 and 2011 seems a distant memory—indeed, the team that got to the 2008 and 2009 finals seemed a fairly distant memory by the time 2011 rolled around.

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Van Gaal is, of course, correct in his assertion that United have been strong at home. Their domestic form at Old Trafford this season and last has been impressive. Last season, United managed an average of 2.32 points per game at home, with only Manchester City and Chelsea enjoying a better record, per Statto.com.

This season, United are thus far averaging 2.5 points at home, the best of any side in the division, per Statto again. 

They needed that home form against Wolfsburg, against whom they fought back after a difficult start. Indeed, going behind against both Wolfsburg and CSKA, while not ideal, has given Van Gaal's side an opportunity to show resilience—something that will be vital against the top sides in the competition.

However, it is a lesson from domestic football that sounds the loudest warning against proclaiming United are ready to compete in Europe. The 3-0 demolition at the hands of Arsenal brought United fans' dreams of success this season temporarily to earth with an unpleasant bump.

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It is hard to see, say, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or Barcelona having too much trouble repeating the trick. Of course, Arsenal beat Bayern Munich as well, so perhaps they are a tougher test than previously realised, but there is a long way to go before the sharp end of the season.

Whether United will still be involved in European competition will depend on the luck of the draw and whether they can avoid some of the inconsistency they have shown. As Ferdinand said, the most frustrating thing about the game in Moscow was it came on the heels of United's best performance of the season.

They will have to show consistently good form if they want to have any chance. Each of the teams United have faced in Europe so far has made things very difficult.

CESAR RANGEL/Associated Press/Associated Press

PSV were tough to break down and dangerous on the counter. Wolfsburg's attack broke through United's back four with ease and applied huge pressure come the latter stages of that game. CSKA looked untroubled by United for 45 minutes.

Whether this side can learn those lessons and grow into the competition as it progresses remains to be seen, and a season is a long time in football, but for now, there is little evidence that United will mount a serious Champions League challenge.