NASCAR at Talladega 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for CampingWorld.com 500
Sunday’s CampingWorld.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway marks the start of the second half of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
More importantly, it also marks the end of Round 2 of the Chase, which means four of the 12 drivers heading into Talladega will no longer be part of the Chase leaving the track afterward.
That’s right, this is the second of three elimination races in the Chase. Jimmie Johnson was the most notable driver to be eliminated after Round 1.
Other than Joey Logano, who has won the first two races of Round 2, each of the 11 remaining drivers is susceptible to being eliminated from further advancement in the Chase on Sunday.
The most likely candidates that may not advance to Round 3—unless they win at ‘Dega—are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth, with Ryan Newman and Kyle Busch close behind.
But anyone from No. 2-ranked Denny Hamlin on down can be eliminated. Look at what happened to the younger Busch brother at this race last year: He came in ranked second; he left eliminated.
Here’s how Sunday’s race shapes up:
By the Numbers: Talladega Superspeedway
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CampingWorld.com 500
Place: Talladega Speedway
Date: Sunday, Oct. 25
Time: 2:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBCSN, 1:30 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 188 laps, 500.8 miles (2.66-mile banked oval)
Defending winner: Brad Keselowski won this race last fall, while Dale Earnhardt Jr. won this year’s spring race at Talladega.
Youngest winner: Bobby Hillin Jr. on July 27, 1986 (22 years, one month, 22 days)
Oldest winner: Harry Gant on May 6, 1991 (51 years, three months, 26 days)
Youngest pole winner: Brian Scott on May 4, 2014 (26 years, three months, 22 days)
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on Oct. 23, 2011 (52 years, nine months, 14 days)
Most wins: all-time—Dale Earnhardt (10); active—Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (six each)
Most poles: all-time—Bill Elliott (eight); active—Jeff Gordon and Joe Nemechek (four each)
Most top-fives: all-time—Dale Earnhardt (23); active—Jeff Gordon (15)
Most top-10s: all-time—Dale Earnhardt (27); active—Jeff Gordon (19)
Lead lap finishes: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (32)
Laps completed: all-time and active—Michael Waltrip (9,797)
Laps led: all-time—Dale Earnhardt (1,377); active—Jimmie Johnson (899)
Most race starts at Talladega: all-time—Terry Labonte and Dave Marcis (61 each); active—Michael Waltrip (58)
Race record: Mark Martin (188.354 mph) on May 10, 1997
Qualifying record: Bill Elliott (212.809 mph) on April 30, 1987
Best average start: all-time—Bobby Isaac (3.625); active—Jimmie Johnson (10.000)
Best average finish: all-time—Pete Hamilton (5.600); active—Dale Earnhardt Jr. (15.065)
TRACK NOTES:
- Total number of races at Talladega: 92
- Total number of different pole winners in Talladega history: 38
- Races won from pole: 13
- Last race won from pole: Jeff Gordon on April 29, 2007
- Number of race winners at Talladega: 38
- DNFs (most): all-time—Darrell Waltrip (23); active—Joe Nemechek (17)
- DNFs (least): all-time—John Sears (zero in seven starts); active—Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (zero in four starts)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines
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Only guarantee is win and you’re in
Every driver remaining in the Chase—other than Joey Logano—is essentially in a must-win situation if he wants to advance to Round 3. Let’s clarify that, though: As long as they stay out of trouble and maintain a decent margin in the points, several drivers can still advance to Round 3 based on how they finish Sunday’s race.
Of course, if they get caught up a wreck not of their making, their season can come to an abrupt end. The only guaranteed way for them to advance is to win; hence that's why they’re all facing a must-win situation of sorts.
What will the Chase be like from here
The loss of Johnson after Round 1 was a big blow. But Round 2 could do devastating damage to several of NASCAR’s biggest drivers, not to mention their fans' potential loss of interest if they fail to advance to Round 3. If you’re a Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Kyle Busch fan, be honest, would you still watch them in the remaining four races if they are among the four drivers eliminated Sunday?
Who could go from hero to zero
We saw it in last year’s Chase race at Talladega. Kyle Busch came into the event in second place. But a bad day and bad performance led to elimination. That’s why some of the higher-ranked drivers heading into ‘Dega have to be very worried—and cautious—when they hit the track. Denny Hamlin, defending champ Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, defending Talladega Chase race winner Brad Keselowski and four-time Cup champ Jeff Gordon could all be at risk of going from likely advancement to not.
What will Joey Logano do
After winning the first two rounds of the Chase, what does Logano do Sunday at Talladega? I mean, really, what does he have to race for? What incentive, other than another trophy and a fat check, does he have, knowing he’s already locked into advancing to Round 3.
Will Logano put it all on the line—as his usual modus operandi—or will he simply ride around at the back of the pack for 188 scheduled laps Sunday, thinking more about Martinsville and the start of Round 3 next week?
Could Hendrick Motorsports be completely eliminated
Kasey Kahne failed to make the Chase. Jimmie Johnson was eliminated after the first round. That leaves Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is facing a must-win situation, and Jeff Gordon as the only Hendrick Motorsports drivers left in Chase contention. That is, going into Talladega. But what happens if Earnhardt does not win, Gordon has a bad day and they’re both eliminated? What would the final two rounds of the Chase be like without a Hendrick driver? Of course, we had that in last year’s final round. What will that ultimately say if HMS comes up short for the second straight year?
Drivers to Watch
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Matt, we hardly knew you
How can a driver who has won five races suddenly find himself so far back in the standings and in a must-win-or-else situation heading into Talladega. It was only three weeks ago that we were talking about Kenseth as a likely top contender for the championship. Now, unless he wins, Kenseth’s championship hopes will likely end on Sunday.
Wait again until next year for Dale Jr.
Like Major League Baseball’s Chicago Cubs, it’s looking like it will once again be wait-until-next-year for Dale Earnhardt Jr. when it comes to potentially earning his first career Sprint Cup championship. NASCAR's most popular driver the last 12 years won at Talladega in April, which gives him somewhat of an edge. But let’s not forget that before then, he also hadn’t won at the 2.66-mile track since 2004.
What about Cousin Carl’s chances
Even though he’s had a good Chase run thus far, Carl Edwards could be a prime candidate to be upset in Sunday’s race. And in so doing, Joe Gibbs Racing could see itself go from four Chase contenders to as few as one after Talladega if Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Edwards are eliminated. That could leave Denny Hamlin once again as JGR’s lone remaining chance to make it to Homestead for the second straight year.
To Big One or not to Big One, that is the question
Talladega is known as the home of the Big One, where multi-car wrecks can include as few as three or four cars or as many as up to a couple of dozen or more being involved in the same crash. But Talladega is a strange bird: There have been races there in recent years where it was expected there would be several Big Ones and ultimately only ending up with a handful of one-, two- or three-car wrecks.
Big wrecks certainly weight the outcome of the race and who advances in the Chase, so will drivers drive with more caution and patience Sunday?
Could we see some old-fashioned, old-school racing Sunday
Earnhardt Jr. is not a lock to win this race, regardless of his win at Talladega this spring, or the fact he has six career triumphs there. But let’s not forget about Gordon. With now just five races remaining in his career, could Gordon finally put together that first elusive win of 2015 by reaching deep into his bag of tricks and going old-school on the rest of the Chase field, thus earning that golden ticket of advancement to Round 3?
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Favorites
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Brad Keselowski
In this race last year, Brad Keselowski emerged victorious and punched his ticket to further advancement in the Chase in the process (even though he ultimately failed to get past Round 3). With teammate Joey Logano safely ensconced in Round 3, maybe it’s time for Keselowski to get some of Logano’s luck rubbed off upon him. Keselowski loves racing at Talladega as much as any other driver, including Earnhardt Jr. Could he finally get that elusive second win of the season Sunday?
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick is in a three-way tie for fifth place heading into Sunday’s race. The defending Sprint Cup champion either must win or at least finish with a top-five finish at the very least to ensure advancement to Round 3. Sure, mathematically, he could potentially advance with a top-10 showing, but a top five would guarantee his moving on to the next round.
Kurt Busch
I’ve noticed something in Kurt Busch the last 3-4 races that I really like and something that not too many others seem to have picked up on. If I asked you right now: Where is Busch in the standings? How many of you would be able to answer that he’s in third place?
He has been flying under the radar all season. As long as he can stay out of trouble and keep driving the consistent way he’s been doing of late, Busch has a great chance to advance to Round 3, not to mention to potentially winning the race, as well.
This could be Tony Stewart’s best—and last—chance to win a race in 2015 (not to mention his first win in over two years). There is absolutely no pressure on Stewart in this race. He doesn’t have to worry about points or advancing in the Chase. He can just go out and race like the Smoke of old. And given Talladega’s unpredictability, a driver who is not in the Chase may actually have a better chance of winning Sunday than one of the 12 Chasers. Why can’t that driver be Stewart?
Kyle Busch
Many of you may wonder why I’m not picking Earnhardt Jr. as a favorite to win Sunday. Frankly, I think he’s too far back and will once again fall short of advancing. But Kyle Busch is a different thing. Sure, he’s under the elimination line coming into Sunday’s race, but if there’s anyone who can rise to the front and win at Talladega, it’s the younger Busch brother.
But admittedly, he’s had his issues at that track and comes in on the wrong side of the elimination bubble. Still, if he wants to continue his incredible season and come back from severe injuries, winning at Talladega would put a cherry on that comeback—and potentially pave the way for him to go on to win his first career Sprint Cup crown.
Dark-Horse Pick: Jimmie Johnson
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When you’re a six-time Sprint Cup champ, it’s hard to be considered a dark-horse choice.
But Johnson has won twice before at Talladega and has finished in the top 10 in 11 of his 27 career starts at the fabled superspeedway.
Johnson could really shake up the Chase makeup for Round 3 with a win Sunday.
In so doing, he’ll be able to salvage a bit more achievement and accomplishment from a season that ended far too soon.
And the Winner Is: Jeff Gordon
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The key to winning at Talladega is to stay out of trouble.
In most past races, the winning driver has done so by being patient, methodical and minimizing risks.
At the same time, if a driver is in the lead in the closing laps, his pace and which lines he runs—not to mention who’s pushing him from behind—can have a big impact on the race's eventual outcome.
That kind of driving comes with experience. And very few drivers have the kind of experience that four-time Sprint Cup champ Jeff Gordon has at Talladega.
He may be a bit of a long shot in some people’s eyes, but I can readily see the driver of the No. 24 car in Victory Lane for the first time in 2015 and the final time at Talladega.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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