Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DFS Scoring Breakdown and How to Win in 2015
The 2015-16 NBA regular season is finally here! Opening night is just a few days away, and daily fantasy players are eagerly awaiting Tuesday's contests.
For those who are new to daily fantasy basketball, here's a brief guide to how it works, as well as some basic strategy tips to help get started.
To begin with, DraftKings NBA lineups include eight roster spots:
| 1 | PG | Point Guard |
| 2 | SG | Shooting Guard |
| 3 | SF | Small Forward |
| 4 | PF | Power Forward |
| 5 | C | Center |
| 6 | G | Point Guard or Shooting Guard |
| 7 | F | Small Forward or Power Forward |
| 8 | Util | Any Player |
With multiple positions to choose from in three of the eight slots, there is a great deal of flexibility available. For example, three point guards can be used simultaneously at PG, G and Util. Considering assists are worth 1.5 fantasy points each, lineups stacked with point guards are often effective.
The full scoring system in play is as follows:
| Point | +1 |
| Three-Point Field Goal | +0.5 |
| Rebound | +1.25 |
| Assist | +1.5 |
| Steal | +2 |
| Block | +2 |
| Turnover | -0.5 |
| Double-Double | +1.5 |
| Triple-Double | +3 |
The first thing to note is the added value placed on three-point shooting. While a regular basket is worth two fantasy points, a three-pointer is worth 3.5. Stephen Curry averaged 23.8 points per game last year, but since he also sank 3.6 three-pointers a night, his 23.8 points scored translated to 25.6 fantasy points.
Curry finished sixth in the league with 7.7 assists per contest, good for another 11.6 fantasy points. For comparison, the No. 6 rebounder was Nikola Vucevic with an average of 10.9. At 1.25 fantasy points per board, Vucevic's rebounds were worth 13.6 fantasy points.
Both assists and rebounds are valuable, but clearly secondary to scoring. The same is true for blocks and steals, which, even at two fantasy points each, rarely equate to a solid assist or rebounding output.
Turnovers is the only category that scores negatively, but the 0.5 fantasy-point deduction is relatively inconsequential. Russell Westbrook led the NBA with 4.4 turnovers per game in 2014-15. However, that cost him just 2.2 fantasy points on average, only slightly more than one made basket.
While the three-point fantasy bonus for a triple-double is exciting when it happens, it's far too rare to play for. Outside of Westbrook's 11 triple-doubles, no one else in the league had more than four last season. On the other hand, the double-double bonus is worth taking into consideration when selecting a lineup. Thirty different players tallied at least 20 double-doubles in 2014-15.
Basic Strategy
Check Betting Lines
Players obviously accumulate more fantasy points the longer they are on the floor. Look for games with low point spreads that are expected to be close—starters tend to log more minutes in contests where the outcome isn't decided until the very end.
In a discussion of MVP candidates last spring, Sam Amick of USA Today illustrated this point perfectly:
"As nonsensical as it sounds, the lone critique of Curry's game this season has been, in essence, that the Warriors have won too easily. Their average point-differential of 10.23 is the eighth-largest in league history and the second-largest since 1996-97 Bulls team that [coach Steve] Kerr played on, meaning Curry – who has sat out for 17 fourth quarters in all during all those routine routs – hasn't played nearly as many minutes as [James] Harden (32.9 per game compared to 36.9 per for Harden).
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Curry can't add to his fantasy total when he's sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter of a blowout.
Another benefit of using players from evenly matched games is the potential for overtime, which yields five extra minutes to score additional fantasy points.
As well as point spreads, over/under numbers are quite useful, too. The games with the highest projected point totals are also usually the ones that provide the most fantasy scoring.
Finalize Lineups Just Before Tip-Off
The worst thing you can do in daily fantasy basketball is set your roster early in the day. Unlike the NFL, the NBA does not require teams to list players on an injury report before game time. Putting last-minute lineup changes to use can be an enormous advantage.
For example, Jeff Teague is expected to be the Atlanta Hawks starting point guard Tuesday with a salary of $7,000. If for some reason Teague is a late scratch, Dennis Schroder will get the nod at a cost of only $4,400. Even through Schroder may not be the player Teague is, the increased workload should allow him solid fantasy production at a discounted price.
It's also worth noting that DraftKings lineups can be altered up until the time each player's game starts. Roster adjustments made before late west coast games can often mean the difference between winning and losing.
Taking advantage of teams with multiple injuries is beneficial as well. If a squad's nine-man rotation is cut to seven or eight, the regulars in action receive a boost in minutes, which equates to more fantasy points.
Use Defense vs. Position Stats
The opponent's defensive strengths must be taken into account when choosing which players to draft. A low-post scorer who regularly puts up big numbers might be worth passing on if he's going against a great shot-blocker like Rudy Gobert.
A number of fantasy sites keep track of teams' defense versus position statistics. According to RotoWire.com, Gobert's Utah Jazz allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing centers this preseason.
Before adding a player to your roster, it's always worth checking how well his opponent defends his position.
There's an element of luck involved no matter what, but implementing these simple strategies can go a long way towards helping you succeed at NBA daily fantasy.
All prices courtesy of DraftKings. Statistics via NBA.com unless otherwise noted. Mark Vandeusen is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @LucidSportsFan.
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