The Biggest NASCAR Storylines to Watch Ahead of the CampingWorld.com 500

At about 7 p.m. on Sunday the Contender Round will close with the CampingWorld.com 500 at the track all the drivers (except Dale Earnhardt Jr.) have been dreading: Talladega Superspeedway.

The Chase is already halfway done and come sunset on Sunday, four drivers will receive their participation trophies while eight move on to keep the dream alive.

Who will advance and who will see their Chase yellow paint scraped from their cars? Only Joey Logano is safe and as Larry McReynolds of FoxSports.com wrote:

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If I can find someone who accurately tells me today the four drivers who will get knocked out, do you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to put him or her on a plane with me and we're headed to Las Vegas and the roulette wheels.

Honestly, that is what it's like when it comes to superspeedway racing. As we always say when we go to Daytona and Talladega, anything can happen and usually does.

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The drinking words of the weekend will be “anything can happen,” so you may as well bolt on your restrictor plate and head to Alabama, because we’ve got storylines stacking up in the draft.

The Track Is the 44th Driver

David Tulis/Associated Press

No matter how you look at this race, what stands out the most—and what worries drivers the most—is the unpredictability of the track.

Cautions will flag for the usual reasons, but there will, of course, be a big, signature crash. At least one.

“Talladega has not been a place that's been very good to me over the past few years,” Martin Truex Jr. said in Pete Pistone’s MotorRacingNetwork.com story.  “It's just one of them races where you go in there and you hope for the best. There's no guarantees obviously. It's definitely the wild card of all the Chase races.”

Truex is the cut line as he’s in eighth place. He’s in danger of elimination and so too are many of the drivers in the top eight.

Even Fox Sports’s Larry McReynolds concedes that the day belongs to the track as the drivers will try to merely survive.

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There's just too many things out of your control when you talk about racing on the superspeedways. Trust me, if you find someone who tells you they know who is going to be eliminated on Sunday, well, they've probably been in the sun too long, because they are hallucinating.

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Tony Stewart, a three-time Sprint Cup champion, sees the inclusion of Talladega in the Chase as a hindrance to fair competition.

He said in RJ Kraft’s NASCAR.com story, "I have never thought it was good to have it in the Chase, especially with this format. You've got teams that have worked too hard all year, and two guys in front that aren't a factor in it (the Chase) could totally dictate somebody's season this weekend." 

That is the challenge in this format, but so long as Talladega has this kind of placement in the Chase, it will be the talk of the week—and the entire round—until the plate cars get put in the garage and don’t resurface until February.

One, Repeat One, Green-White-Checker Finish

Bob Brodbeck/Associated Press

It’s the second most famous acronym in NASCAR behind, well, NASCAR. Green, white, checker—GWC—is NASCAR’s overtime, a three-lap thriller should a caution overlap with the race’s original distance.

Where once there were three GWCs, now there’s only one for the final race of the Contender Round. You can almost be guaranteed a GWC-finish. Even after 500 miles, the nature of the plate tracks leads to cautions, especially late in the race when drivers must make drastic moves out of the draft.

Brad Keselowski, the 2012 Sprint Cup champion and three-time winner at Talladega, said on NASCAR.com:

"I don't think it's a bad thing. We go there and say we're going to run 500 miles. You run 500 miles and it ends under yellow, it kind of feels a little uncomfortable. Give another crack at it and see if you can't finish it off for the fans, and if it doesn't come together, well, we tried. I would feel pretty good about that if I was a fan. And as a team owner, I would feel pretty good about that, too."

Kez nailed it. How many chances do you need after 500 miles? For drivers and owners, added GWCs likely mean a severe wreck and money down the commode.

This race will induce no fewer than 11 ulcers come Sunday, and this added rule change puts the emphasis on getting it done in one GWC. For conspiracy theorists, this also eliminates any intentional spin-outs by drivers to help out a viable teammate.

What Can Joey Logano Expect from Matt Kenseth?

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

Joey Logano may want to keep Matt Kenseth in front of him at Talladega.

As a refresher, Logano spun Kenseth out last week at Kansas on the final lap to win the race—Logano’s second in a row—and keep the dominant Kenseth, who led 153 laps, from automatically advancing to the Eliminator Round.

Logano said he simply raced hard. Kenseth felt cheated. Both have a point. Logano said in a Pete Pistone’s MotorRacingNetwork.com piece:

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I raced hard because my team works hard and they expect that out of me. They expect their driver to go to battle in those situations. That’s my job. And if I lifted in that situation like I did down the backstretch, if I did that twice, I’m not sure my team would be too proud to work for someone like that, you know? I know I wouldn’t want to work on someone’s car that’s going to roll over.’

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For the counter point, let’s hear from Kenseth in that same article:

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It’s not like he was alongside of me. To wreck somebody for being in a lane that you wanted to be in seems to be kind of risky and not very smart. That was the decision he made. The race track is 80 or 100 feet wide down there and I was in front of him. He just chose to spin me out because he wanted to be in the top groove instead of going left and trying to race me for the win the way a man should do it really.

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If Logano were in a position of pure desperation, his actions would be more justified. He had already qualified, so why dump another driver? Then again, there’s only so many chances to win races. Just ask Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman, drivers who haven’t won races since 2013.

Pistone writes:

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I abhor the last lap, last turn “bump and run” ... as a means of getting to Victory Lane. It takes no skill to pile drive the car ahead of you and bull doze your way to the checkered flag. I’m positive I’d be the worst racecar driver in history but guarantee even I could knock the crap out of someone and purposely wreck them. My racing video game experience is proof. 

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Kenseth needs to win and if he doesn’t, he’ll be gunning for Logano throughout the remainder of the Chase to sabotage him the way he was sabotaged at Kansas.

Who's the Most in Danger of Missing Out?

Terry Renna/Associated Press

Two names jump out: Earnhardt and Kenseth. Kenseth sits in 12th place, 35 points behind the cut line. Earnhardt doesn’t fare much better, 31 points back in 11th.

Kyle Busch and Ryan Newman round out this foursome.

One of these drivers will most likely not make it to Martinsville with a chance to win the Sprint Cup. Kenseth and Earnhardt must win this race and it’s Earnhardt who has the edge.

Of the three plate races this year, Earnhardt won two of them, including the spring race at Talladega.

NASCAR analyst Darrell Waltrip said in George Diaz’s Orlando Sentinel story: "If I had to go to Talladega next week with one car, one driver and one shot, I'd want it to be with Dale Jr.”

To which Earnhardt added, “I wouldn't rather be going anywhere else than Talladega for the next race if we need a win. That is a good opportunity for us. Even over Daytona, I think we can go to Talladega and do the job."

As for Busch and Newman, both drivers sit six and eight points behind the cut, respectively. That’s six and eight spots on the track. That’s a single Big One at the superspeedway known for sending drivers from contention to the garage.

Denny Hamlin Is Quietly Becoming a Championship Threat

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

It wasn’t that long ago (six weeks-ish) that Denny Hamlin blew out his ACL playing hoops. He then won the first race of the Chase at Chicagoland proving it will take far more than torn connective tissue to keep him from Homestead.

With all that’s happening between Logano and Kenseth, not to mention the possible fall of Earnhardt, a driver like Hamlin has snuck his way into title contention for a second straight year. He finished second at Kansas last week.

He also has the ultimate X-factor going for him: the best pit crew in the game. A slow pit stop for the No. 11 team is 12-ish seconds.

Jay Pennell of FoxSports.com wrote:

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Over the last two seasons the JGR pit crews have been the class of the field. From their relentless training to the 'magic' air guns, the JGR pit crews consistently get their drivers off pit road quicker than most. Hamlin's crew, led by Rogers, is one of the best on pit road.

When track position is king and every spot matters, having one of the best over-the-wall crews on pit road is a huge advantage.

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Hamlin has also been on the doormat of the championship chateau. A year ago he was in the Championship Four and in 2010, Hamlin gagged his 15-point lead in the final race, watching Jimmie Johnson win the Sprint Cup.

He’s been close and has felt the sting of defeat. Hamlin, for now, has the look of a sleeper who could win the Sprint Cup.