Updated National Championship Odds for Top 10 Teams After Week 7
With Week 7 of the college football season now in the books—and Week 8 officially kicking off Tuesday—it's time to take inventory of the top national championship contenders.
The regular season is already at the halfway point, and plenty of teams still feel like they have a great chance at breaking into the second College Football Playoff and taking home the title. Some preseason contenders have fallen off the map, but most are still in the thick of things heading into the second half.
While the Top 25 polls are decent indicators of where teams stand heading into Week 8, the title shots of these programs look different to the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. Just because a team may have a higher ranking right now doesn't mean it has a better shot at winning it all than someone lower in the poll.
So, with that in mind, here's a fresh update of the national championship odds for the current Top 10 teams in the Associated Press poll. The baseline for these odds come from Odds Shark, with a few slight tweaks based on Week 7 results. (For example, some of the odds listed haven't been updated, as they still have two-loss Michigan as a top contender.)
A lot can change between now and the end of this already-wild college football season. Tell us in the comments below who you see taking home the four playoff bids and then the national championship.
10. Stanford
1 of 10
National Championship Odds: 18-1
It's hard to find a team that has made more of a leap forward from where it was after Week 1 than Stanford.
The Cardinal couldn't move the ball well at all in an ugly season-opening road loss to Northwestern. Since that game, David Shaw's team has scored an average of 45 points per contest and has taken down the likes of preseason Pac-12 contenders USC and UCLA.
Stanford is not quite as strong as it has been in years past on the defensive side of the ball, but the younger unit has done more than enough to hold leads earned by what has been a fantastic offense. With one of the nation's hottest running backs in Christian McCaffrey and an experienced coaching staff, the Cardinal are suddenly strong playoff contenders.
As Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer noted last Thursday night, Stanford is in a fantastic position to make a run at a Pac-12 title. The Cardinal's two remaining road games are against Washington State and Colorado, and they'll most likely be favored the rest of the way in the regular season—including a regular-season finale against Notre Dame.
"The way things are going...[UCLA] won’t be the only ones to suffer a defeat like that at the hands of a Stanford team that is playing as well as—if not better than—any other in the country," Fischer wrote.
9. Florida State
2 of 10
National Championship Odds: 25-1
Florida State is far from a perfect team, but Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles keep winning games and showing improvement from week to week. That's a recipe for a surprise run well into the postseason, given the huge amount of young talent on the roster in Tallahassee.
On Saturday, Florida State pulled away from a frustrated Louisville team at home after trailing 7-6 at halftime. Everett Golson had his best performance as a Seminole in an offense that has been tweaked to better fit his strengths. He threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals while continuing his personal interceptionless streak.
"He's playing aggressive football but smart football," Fisher said, per Jared Shanker of ESPN.com. "Everybody says 'Make plays!' No, don't make plays; make the plays that are there...Don't be a hero. A hero is a guy who does his job and is consistent, and that's what he's learning to be."
Florida State's defense has continued to play aggressive football in recent weeks. While the Seminoles' yards-per-play numbers have gone up, they've had upticks in sacks and tackles for loss. Miami and Louisville combined for only 119 yards on the ground against FSU, which has allowed only one rushing touchdown all season.
The Seminoles still have two huge obstacles remaining between them and a surprise return to the playoff—road games against Clemson and Florida. But if Fisher's squad continues to take steps forward in its next two contests, it'll be a tough out for anyone in its path.
8. Alabama
3 of 10
National Championship Odds: 15-2
There's a good chance college football fans will look back at Alabama's Week 3 loss to Ole Miss in the same fashion as Stanford's defeat to Northwestern—odd results for complete title contenders.
Alabama took a huge step forward in the SEC West race Saturday by knocking off Texas A&M by a score of 41-23 in College Station, and the Tide's national championship odds improved as a result.
Offensively, bruising running back Derrick Henry continues his touchdown-scoring ways, and quarterback Jake Coker seems more settled in the quarterback position thanks to some breakout players out wide. Nick Saban's team is one of the best in the nation up front, and a much-improved secondary is coming off a performance in which it scored three pick-sixes on the uptempo Aggies.
"The loss to Ole Miss hurts, but Alabama has been here before," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote. "They're hitting their stride at the right time, seem to have solved its pressing issues and has a showdown with LSU looming early next month."
Barring some surprises in the next couple of weeks, Alabama will be favored in that home matchup against LSU. All the Crimson Tide need is for Ole Miss to drop another conference game—which looks like a good bet at this point—and they'll be back on the inside track for a championship run.
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7. Michigan State
4 of 10
National Championship Odds: 20-1
America, this is your team of destiny. So far this season, Michigan State has won four games by a single possession. The last two victories included a bizarre fourth-down spike from Rutgers and an improbable fumble on the final play of the game from Michigan.
But Michigan State keeps finding ways to come out on top. As long as that continues, Mark Dantonio's team will be a title contender inside the Top 10 of the polls.
"I couldn't believe it," Dantonio told ESPN's Todd McShay. "I thought we were gonna fall on [the fumble], maybe have a chance for a kick...[but] we scooped it...I can't say enough about our football team."
Michigan State still has plenty of issues—especially in a thinning secondary—and it still hasn't put together a complete performance against a quality opponent this season. But these Spartans show great potential in an offense led by quarterback Connor Cook, and their strong defensive line keeps winning battles key up front.
One would expect Michigan State will have to play better football to survive the late stretch of its season, which includes a road game at No. 1 Ohio State. But Sparty's mixture of talent and good fortune have put them in a good position for championship runs in 2015.
6. Clemson
5 of 10
National Championship Odds: 16-1
Las Vegas doesn't seem high on Clemson's overall chances of winning the national championship, but Dabo Swinney's team is one of the best playoff bets in college football.
Clemson improved to 6-0 this past weekend by doubling up Boston College, a team whose highly ranked defense kept things close with the likes of Duke and Florida State earlier this season. The Tigers scored 34 points, and star quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 420 yards on the Eagles.
Defensive coordinator Brent Venables has put together another elite defense at Clemson despite losing quite a bit of talent to the NFL from last season's No. 1-ranked unit. The Tigers are No. 10 nationally in total yards allowed per game and No. 14 in points allowed per game through the first seven weeks of the season.
Clemson's second-half schedule sets up perfectly for an ACC championship and a College Football Playoff berth. Florida State is the only ranked team left on its schedule, and the Seminoles have to come to Death Valley for the matchup that will surely determine the ACC Atlantic Division and the conference's best chance at a spot in the four-team finale.
The Tigers are starting to hit their stride offensively, and their defense is one of the fiercest in the entire country. Combine that with a favorable schedule, and Clemson has everything it takes to at least get into the playoff. From there, Swinney's team could run the table.
5. LSU
6 of 10
National Championship Odds: 8-1
LSU passed one of its first major tests of the season Saturday by defeating cross-division rival Florida in a dramatic home game. Now the Bayou Bengals must get past tricky Group of Five foe Western Kentucky to set up a massive road game at Alabama.
Everyone with a functioning knowledge of college football this season should know that Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette is the star of the show in Baton Rouge. But opponents can't just load the box for the dynamic running back, as quarterback Brandon Harris proved Saturday night against an elite Gator defense that he can hurt secondaries downfield.
"Harris proved that LSU is the SEC's most complete team and perhaps in all of college football," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote. "Even if he doesn't look like Tom Brady all the time, the threat of that is at least there. With Fournette in the backfield, a little threat goes a long way toward LSU earning a trip to the SEC Championship Game for the first time since 2011."
Defensively, LSU hasn't suffered much of a drop-off after losing coordinator John Chavis in the offseason. The Tigers are one of the 16 teams in college football holding opponents to fewer than 300 yards per game this season.
LSU's national championship odds here are ever-so-slightly worse than Alabama's because the Crimson Tide will have home-field advantage in their November heavyweight bout. If the Bayou Bengals survive in Tuscaloosa this season, their title stock will soar.
4. TCU
7 of 10
National Championship Odds: 12-1
TCU isn't quite at the same level of Michigan State in terms of "survive and advance" this season, but the Horned Frogs are still inside the Top 5 despite mounting odds against them.
A lot of that has to do with the dynamic offense led by do-it-all quarterback Trevone Boykin and favorite target Josh Doctson. The duo had incredible performances in tight road wins over Texas Tech and Kansas State, and they combined for even more fireworks Saturday against Iowa State.
"Trevone Boykin is doing all he can to stay in the Heisman conversation," Kevin Lyttle of the Austin American-Statesman wrote. "An even better sign: The Frogs patchwork defense pitched a shutout Saturday after the first quarter."
That second sentence is important, as TCU has had to battle through major injury after major injury on its first-choice defense. Those woes haunted the Horned Frogs in their close calls this season, but they have some more time to settle before a November gauntlet in the Big 12.
If TCU can hang tough on defense and continue to get game-changing performances from Boykin, it'll be a solid title contender. The Frogs have to travel to both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, but they get Baylor at home in their regular-season finale.
3. Utah
8 of 10
National Championship Odds: 10-1
Utah played with fire for most of Saturday night's contest against Arizona State, but the Utes were able to put it out with a huge fourth-quarter run in a 34-18 home victory.
"[The Utes] were not going to be denied in that fourth quarter," head coach Kyle Whittingham said, per Matthew Piper of the Salt Lake Tribune. "That's part of the equation: winning the fourth quarter. We did that in a big way."
While Whittingham's team has a couple of big-name tests left in the regular season—including matchups against both Los Angeles schools—no other team in the treacherous Pac-12 has looked as impressive as Utah has throughout the 2015 season.
Quarterback Travis Wilson continues to play well for the Utes, who also have one of the country's best running backs in Devontae Booker. A defense that has forced the second-most turnovers nationally was Utah's calling card against Arizona State, as it held the Sun Devils to just 257 yards of total offense and just 15 on the ground.
Utah is a surprise underdog right now against a USC team that desperately needs a big win at home. But the Utes have played some of the best ball of anyone in the nation this season, and their balance makes them a dangerous out for anyone in a potential title run.
2. Baylor
9 of 10
National Championship Odds: 6-1
This past weekend, Baylor's fans and critics alike got to see how the Bears would handle a step up in competition after a rather breezy first five games of the 2015 season.
Art Briles and Co. passed that test with flying colors, hanging 62 points on a West Virginia defense that was No. 1 in the nation in scoring just a few weeks ago. Seth Russell, Corey Coleman and the Baylor offense is on pace to shatter plenty of records in 2015, including the most yards per play in FBS history. (The Bears are currently ticking at 8.94 in that category, more than a full yard better than rival TCU at No. 2.)
On defense, the Bears aren't dominant by any stretch, but they're more than capable of doing "just enough" with the way Briles' offense is playing. In seasons past, Baylor's problem was giving up too many points and too many explosive plays. This year, Baylor has improved in both categories.
One could argue that no one else in college football has been more consistent this season than Baylor, whose only real struggles through the first six games of the season were giving up too many points in lopsided nonconference wins.
The Bears will have to win at currently undefeated Oklahoma State and TCU in order to pull off their ideal run to the College Football Playoff. But it's hard to imagine anyone on their schedule keeping up with this simply ridiculous offense.
1. Ohio State
10 of 10
National Championship Odds: 11-4
So far this season, preseason favorite Ohio State has definitely flirted with dropping from No. 1 several times. And while the Buckeyes no longer have a dominant hold on the top spot, their grip is tightening again after back-to-back wins by 20-plus points in Big Ten play.
The Buckeyes still have the best national championship odds, too, thanks to their loaded roster and favorable schedule. Now at 7-0, Ohio State has an easy-looking trio of Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois ahead before its massive showdowns with Michigan State at the Horseshoe and Michigan at the Big House.
"The 28-point win over Penn State, which was boasting one of the nation's stouter defenses, was the Buckeyes' most ratings-worthy victory of the first seven games of the season as they pushed their nation-leading winning streak to 20 games," Tim May of the Columbus Dispatch wrote. "The [College Football Playoff] committee likely will want to see more of the same."
Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer still has to sort out a quarterback situation between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett, with the latter looking more impressive in Saturday's big win over Penn State. The Buckeyes' defense, ranked No. 8 nationally in yards per play, dominated for most of the night against the Nittany Lions and will have plenty of momentum heading into their next several games.
In a season that doesn't have a runaway title favorite, the safest bet is still the team that won it all last year and entered this year with the deepest and most-talented roster. Though they haven't always looked the part, the Buckeyes are still No. 1 to the pollsters and the oddsmakers.
Unless otherwise noted, other statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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