What Is the Minimum Achievement for Louis van Gaal at Manchester Utd This Term?

Manchester United and Louis van Gaal enjoyed a boost to their fortunes at Goodison Park on Saturday, and their up-and-down fortunes are making it very difficult to assess their realistic expectations for the season.

Expectations are a tricky thing in life. Too many and happiness always seems delayed—put off until the next set of exam results or promotion at work, for example. Too few and it is easy to settle for second best and not maximise the potential of life.

As is so often the case, as in life, so it is in football. Unreasonable expectations add unsustainable pressure to coaches and players. A lack of a high-enough bar to strive for can be demotivating.

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This is thrown into further confusion in the case of United, whose expectations were hit with a sharp reset by the fallout from Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement. Suddenly, the team that had spent five seasons either winning the league, losing it by a point or losing it on goal difference ended a campaign in seventh place.

Expectations, which had been thoroughly deflated by David Moyes were suddenly inflated to dangerous proportions by the burst of air that was the summer transfer window of 2014. Angel Di Maria and Radamel Falcao were surely the helium to get the United balloon floating again?

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Everyone knows how that finished, and in the end, Van Gaal's first season could be scored at par. Return to Champions League football: check. Sense that there is probably some progress going on behind the scenes: check. Glorious revival to the level of past triumphs: no check yet.

A few months into Van Gaal's second season in charge, and expectations are once again vacillating wildly. Before the Arsenal game, United were top of the league and thoughts turned to a heretofore unlikely title campaign. After the Arsenal game, Champions League qualification seemed a long shot.

Then, after United rebounded in fine fashion against Everton, the possibility this side could actually do something this season once again reared its head. The state of play after a trip to Moscow and a visit from Manchester City will require a fresh examination of potential future outcomes.

However, away from the roller coaster of changing expectations, what are the dispassionate, reasonable expectations for this side?

At the beginning of September, in the aftermath of the closure of the transfer window but before the Liverpool game, I wrote: 

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In the final analysis, the expectations for this season remain about improvement. The league looks out of reach, as does the Champions League, and nothing in the final moments of transfer window has really changed that. It is vital, though, that Van Gaal's side are clearly building toward that brighter future.

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As it turns out, those final moments of the transfer window actually did have a significant bearing on expectations for United this season. David De Gea has already demonstrated how vital he can be to earning United points—the Southampton game being the perfect example, and his saves from Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku at 2-0 against Everton being others.

And, of course, Anthony Martial has thus far turned out to be not so much diamond in the rough as complete world-beater of a centre-forward who might get even better. OK, that is a slight exaggeration, but his impact has been far beyond expectation so far.

He has four goals and an assist already, and while he has not found the back of the net in six games for club or country, he has continued to play very well for both.

So Martial's success and De Gea's obvious commitment to excellence in spite of the transfer window shenanigans have added a gloss to United's squad when compared with the start of the season.

Chris Smalling's form has been cause for celebration, as has Juan Mata's ability to put up consistent numbers if not his ability to put in consistent performances. The competition for places in midfield and the plethora of options available to Van Gaal has strengthened United's ability to compete on all fronts.

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Were it not for those pesky opening 20 minutes against Arsenal, realistic expectations could be replaced with beautiful dreams of success.

That 20-minute period, though, represented a complete collapse of both tactics and performance. Of course, even the best sides have bad days at the office. Manchester City have looked the league's best side by a distance this season but were decimated by Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane.

Arsenal themselves were picked off by West Ham United at the Emirates Stadium and lost to a Chelsea side that has otherwise looked like a shadow of its former self. Perhaps United's collapse at the Gunners was a lapse on the road to glory?

There was enough about that defeat that was predictable—as covered in more detail here—to suggest it would not be a one off. However, Van Gaal's reaction to it, his revelation that he had around "15 meetings" to work out what went wrong and how to fix it and the superb execution of the plan against Everton means that perhaps the defeat will be more of a one-off than it seemed.

Defence, midfield and attack received attention and a switch around of emphasis or personnel. In each case, it worked. Of course, Van Gaal had two weeks to prepare for Everton and now enters a phase in which there are six games in three weeks.

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If he can demonstrate that United can fight on multiple fronts, and certainly if he can find a way to engineer victory over Manchester City, then a genuine conversation will have to be had about whether United are legitimate title contenders.

If they do not, then it is as you were. United's expectation of Van Gaal will be to close the points gap on the eventual champions when compared with last season. A trophy in a cup competition would be a big bonus—getting the team accustomed to winning things again and allowing many of the newer arrivals their first taste of success in England.

Qualification from the group stage of the Champions League is the minimum target on the European front. What follows will depend so heavily on the luck of the draw that it seems unfair to require more of Van Gaal than negotiating the group.

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Given how far and how quickly United fell in the post-Ferguson era, competing with Europe's elite may have to wait for another season or two.

Indeed, United had ceased to be a dominant force in Europe even before Sir Alex stepped down. The 2011 final appearance relied heavily on a favourable draw, and the gap in quality between themselves and Barcelona had clearly widened a great deal between the finals of 2009 and 2011.

Thus, expecting European glory seems a little unreasonable.

Of course, expectation goes hand in hand with expenditure in modern football, and United have spent a good deal of money during the Van Gaal era. They have also recouped a good deal of money—in transfer fees and especially in terms of getting players off the wage bill.

Following the reset of expectations, Van Gaal has essentially carried out a full reset of the squad. For the most part, only the best of what Ferguson left remains, and the team is unrecognisable. Because it is such an unknown quantity, nailing down the minimum required achievement is a difficult challenge, but essentially, Van Gaal's goal remains to be better than before.

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Better than the hopeless floundering of Moyes, and better than the wild inconsistency of his own first season. Finishing nearer to the eventual champions than last term with a view to ensuring that next season the only acceptable goal is to win the league is a realistic expectation. And so far, it looks as though it is being lived up to.

All quotations obtained firsthand.