United States Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Austin Race
After the surprisingly good race last time out in Sochi, Formula One crosses the Atlantic Ocean for the second time in 2015 for the United States Grand Prix.
Nico Rosberg and Sebastian Vettel head into the weekend knowing they, realistically, need to finish ahead of Lewis Hamilton to remain in the title hunt. If the reigning world champion scores two more points than Rosberg and nine more than Vettel, the crown will again be his.
The two Germans would, ideally, like to see their rival fail to finish—and we think there's at least a small chance their wish will be granted.
Further down the grid, Pastor Maldonado is looking to salvage some respectability from a year in which he has been annihilated by team-mate, Romain Grosjean. The Venezuelan has never finished in the points for three consecutive races, but he's currently on a personal best-equalling run of two.
Could his luck be about to change?
Here are our views on his chances and four more bold predictions for F1's upcoming visit to Texas.
A DNF for Lewis Hamilton to Keep the Title Race Alive
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Lewis Hamilton has a 66-point world championship lead over Sebastian Vettel and a 73-point cushion to Nico Rosberg. A repeat of the most common 2015 podium—Hamilton first, Rosberg second and Vettel third—would see him secure the title in Austin.
If he wins the race, the only thing that could stop Hamilton being crowned in the United States would be Vettel coming home in second.
His rivals need a bit of a miracle, and one could well be lurking in the wings.
The once-bulletproof Mercedes W06 has become something of a liability in recent races. The team didn't have a single race-ending reliability issue in the first 11 races of the year; since Monza, where they introduced a new spec of engine, they've had three in just four grands prix.
Rosberg has been taken out twice by reliability trouble and Hamilton has had one early bath. The four-race failure rate across the two Mercedes stands at 37.5 percent, so it wouldn't be too surprising if one didn't make it to the end at the Circuit of the Americas.
And that's without considering the possibility of a race-ending collision. COTA has a very tricky first corner and only the man who reaches it first will have an easy time; everyone else will have to carefully shuffle their way through.
If Rosberg can extend his string of poles to three races and force Hamilton to start from the dirty side of the grid, he'll throw another potential banana skin into the reigning world champion's path.
The last time we predicted Hamilton would fail to finish was at Singapore, where he retired with a power unit issue. Whether by the hand of reliability or a collision, we're going for the same outcome in the U.S.
Pastor Maldonado Will Complete His First Career Treble
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By coming home in seventh place in Sochi, Pastor Maldonado equalled his personal best run of consecutive points finishes.
In the great scheme of things, that isn't much of an achievement—he has now scored points in two races in a row three times in his F1 career.
The only points-scoring driver on the current grid with a lower career PB is Felipe Nasr.
But we think Maldonado could extend his run to three at a circuit that should suit both him and his Lotus car.
The Venezuelan had a rotten 2014 season in the uncompetitive E22, outperformed—as he has been this season—by Romain Grosjean. Maldonado was eliminated in Q1 a staggering 15 times to Grosjean's six, and he scored points on just one occasion.
But that one occasion was at last year's United States Grand Prix, where he finished ninth after qualifying a season-best 11th.
Maldonado, 30, knows his way around the Circuit of the Americas, and his Lotus will be at home in its high-speed corners. We're backing him to get to the end, in the points, to chalk up three consecutive points finishes for the first time in his career.
And for added boldness, we'll tip him to qualify and finish ahead of Grosjean too. He hasn't managed that particular double all season, but surely he can do it at least once...
Top Rookie: Felipe Nasr
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Alexander Rossi will return to the Manor fold in Austin, but although he'll strain every sinew to do as well as he can in front of his home crowd, his car just isn't fast enough to have any realistic hope of points.
The Toro Rossos of Carlos Sainz Jr and Max Verstappen should be. They'll lose time on the straights, but the STR10 chassis is one of the best on the grid; it'll fly through the quick corners in the first sector, and it handles slow turns almost as well.
But the Italian team has a habit of snatching failure from promising positions. Toro Rosso have suffered 11 retirements so far in 2015, and they've only had both drivers in the points on two occasions. They should have at least the same number of points as Lotus—instead, they have 21 fewer.
Felipe Nasr's Sauber team, on the other hand, has a habit of grabbing points whenever they become available.
His C34 won't be as quick as the baby bulls in either qualifying or the race, but he's far less likely to need new power unit components (and therefore less likely to receive grid penalties) and has only retired once in 2015.
So we're backing the Brazilian to follow up his quietly brilliant drive in Sochi with another top rookie award in Austin.
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A (Relatively) Happy Fernando Alonso Will Finish in the Points
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Fernando Alonso had plenty of choice words to say about his underpowered Honda engine at the manufacturer's home race earlier in the season.
Though he didn't really say anything that wasn't true, it generated all the wrong sort of publicity, and McLaren boss Ron Dennis later told Sky Sports F1 the Spaniard's outburst "wasn't particularly constructive."
Japan is hugely important to Honda, but their biggest market for sales is the United States. The Austin race is one of the few grands prix shown at a "normal" time to U.S. viewers, and local rights-holder NBC airs the Sunday action on its main channel.
More angry mid-race criticism from Alonso could be just as upsetting here as it was in Japan.
But the latest spec Honda engine—given a brief outing in practice at Sochi—appears to be a significant improvement, with Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble reporting the upgrade was worth at least 20 horsepower.
That isn't anything like enough to make up for the power unit's energy deployment deficits, and Jenson Button is unlikely to feel its full benefit—he'll have to take grid penalties to have the new engine fitted in his MP4-30.
But Alonso, who took his penalties in Russia, should be allowed to start from where he qualifies.
And we think the new unit, coupled with his undeniable talent behind the wheel, might just be enough to push the Spaniard into the points.
Red Bull Will Outscore Williams to Keep Fight for 3rd Alive
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Red Bull have spent the season in a battle with Williams to be the third-best team. One has exceptional aerodynamics but a weak engine, the other has average aero but a power unit that's second to none.
The points gap between the two teams has fluctuated over the course of the year, but Williams have always been ahead.
As we'd expect, Red Bull do their best work at circuits where handling and stability trump raw power. Williams tend to go well at a wider range of tracks, but especially at those where straight-line speed is key.
The Circuit of the Americas is an all-round sort of track—it has the high-speed corner sequence between Turns 2 and 10, two long straights and a selection of slow and medium-speed corners toward the end of the lap.
Williams will pull clear where power matters most, but Red Bull should be faster through the turns.
Determining who should come out on top is tough. Last season, Williams scored more points—22 to 21—despite Daniel Ricciardo beating Felipe Massa to third by just six-tenths of a second.
Valtteri Bottas will head to Austin with a point to prove after losing a podium on the final lap in Sochi, while Massa has always been quick around COTA.
But with Ricciardo in excellent form and Daniil Kvyat proving more than capable of picking up good points, we think Red Bull will outscore their rivals this time around.
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