Ravens vs. 49ers: What's the Game Plan for San Francisco?
The San Francisco 49ers will look to bounce back from a heartbreaking Week 5 loss as they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 18.
Both teams enter the contest with a 1-4 record, and both are coming off three-point defeats. Yet the 49ers offense was, surprisingly, solid enough versus the New York Giants. This unit will look to replicate its success in Week 6.
With the offense seemingly back on track, yet the defense in question, what will San Francisco's approach be when these two teams face off at Levi's Stadium?
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The Ravens have fallen on hard times, especially due to their plethora of injuries, as noted by Pro-Football-Reference.com. The 49ers will look to exploit this wherever possible and take advantage of a Baltimore defense that is vulnerable against the passing game.
But San Francisco will need to improve its own passing defense and pass rush—problematic efforts from the 49ers' loss against the Giants.
Can the 49ers put both pieces together and come away with a much-needed victory over Baltimore?
Offensive Game Plan
Unlike his efforts in Weeks 3 and 4, quarterback Colin Kaepernick was able to put forth commendable statistics against New York. He passed for 262 yards and two touchdowns against zero interceptions. Granted, these numbers were against the NFL's (1,521 yards allowed) last-place passing defense, but it's a good sign to see the 49ers signal-caller making some progress here.
Baltimore's passing defense is also suspect. This unit ranks No. 28 in the league in average passing yards allowed per game (298), as indicated by the Bleacher Report chart below:
The 49ers will likely utilize their ground game to set up play-action and read-option schemes. But the onus will be on Kaepernick to adequately find his receiving targets.
Passing outside the numbers, never one of Kaepernick's great strengths, could be key. He was able to execute this well enough against the Giants as showcased in the following film breakdown.
The target will be wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who is lined up in the slot on this particular play. San Francisco will help draw one of New York's safeties down in coverage to protect against a short pass to the tight end, which frees up Boldin in single-man coverage.
Boldin has his man beat by a step, which forces safety Craig Dahl (red circle) to make the tackle. Note the trajectory of the ball (yellow arrow) and how it is in a position where only Boldin can make the reception.
This is a good example of a proper read, accurate throw and letting a receiver make a play on the ball.
But there is some bad along with the good.
Shortly thereafter, wide receiver Quinton Patton (yellow circle) will run a go route right behind New York's defenders (red circles) who are in zone coverage with their eyes on Kaepernick.
As the pocket collapses, not surprisingly from the right side, Kaepernick still has a chance to hit Patton in stride. Note how the Giants defensive backs are moving away from the wide receiver anticipating the play will go in front of them.
Instead, Kaepernick takes off to his left and eventually gets chased out of bounds for a three-yard loss.
Perhaps Kaepernick felt the pressure too early. It's possible he didn't recognize the coverage in time to hit Patton for a big gain. It's hard to say. But the 49ers will want to avoid plays like these when possible and only employ Kaepernick's rushing abilities when there are no other likable options available.
Defensive Game Plan
Giants quarterback Eli Manning torched the 49ers secondary for 441 yards and three touchdowns against one interception in Week 5.
As a unit, San Francisco's defense posted a minus-5.2 pass-coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus—not the kind of numbers the 49ers want to repeat going forward.
Manning was especially effective between the numbers, as pointed out by PFF's Jeff Deeney:
Look for Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco to try and replicate this success and do so by drawing on what went wrong on the final drive New York employed during its game-winning touchdown effort.
Part of the Giants' success here was the utilization of running back Shane Vereen in the receiving game.
Vereen is lined up to Manning's left and will receive a dump-off pass from Manning near the line of scrimmage. Cornerback Keith Reaser (yellow circle) is lined up close in the box and is assigned with covering Vereern. But note center Weston Richburg and how he uses his size to easily block out Reaser.
Richburg, essentially, takes Reaser out of the play, while Vereen is allowed to run free after the catch. Note the absence of any other 49ers defenders in the area.
Additionally concerning is NaVorro Bowman's lack of coverage ability.
Bowman owns a minus-5.0 coverage grade on the season, per PFF.
“Laterally and some of the man-coverage-type things, which he’s not in a ton of positions to be in, some of that stuff you might be able to see the fact he’s coming back, a little bit,” Flacco stated regarding Bowman, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News.
It's clear Bowman isn't quite 100 percent, despite his exceptional recovery from the 2014 NFC Championship injury that sidelined him all of last season.
With Bowman patrolling the center of the field, should the 49ers be expecting Flacco and Co. to find some way to utilize interior passes and exploit this potential weakness?
San Francisco is allowing 315 passing yards per game, which is the worst in the NFL this season. So Baltimore's aerial attack figures to be a primary weapon against which the 49ers will have to contend.
Defensive coordinator Eric Mangini's zone scheme wasn't particularly effective against New York, so it's plausible he employs more man coverages to compensate for this in Week 6.
Key Players and Matchups
Linebacker Aaron Lynch was one of the lone effective 49ers defenders to apply any sort of consistent pass rush in Week 5. He graded out with a plus-10.5 overall PFF grade against New York, and the 49ers will continue to rely on him to force Flacco off his game.
To force San Francisco's defense to play more honest, the Ravens will also likely look to get running back Justin Forsett involved early and often on the ground.
Forsett (ankle) is listed as probable for the contest and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Wide receiver Steve Smith (back) practiced this week, but according to the Raven's Twitter feed (h/t Darin Gantt of NBC Sports), the veteran is not expecting to play in Week 6:
Baltimore is thin at the wide receiver position entering the contest as the aforementioned injury link suggests. So this will put more pressure on Forsett and Flacco to find ways to move the ball down the field.
On the flip side, Boldin and fellow WR Torrey Smith will be facing off against their former team. This should provide added motivation and combined with the Ravens' difficulty against the pass, open up chances for some big numbers Sunday.
And, as should be expected, can Kaepernick look to build upon his strong Week 5 effort?
Prediction
Both the 49ers and Ravens are looking to turn things around after five mostly lackluster weeks.
Health is a major factor, though, and aside from a few injuries (running back Reggie Bush and tight end Vernon Davis), per the team's official website, the 49ers have a clean bill of health. Baltimore does not enjoy this luxury.
Still, there will be other notable factors working their way into the contest.
Turnovers could be a critical element and, perhaps, one of the ways the Ravens can overcome their injury woes. Baltimore has forced four turnovers on the season, while San Francisco has generated only three.
But the big story will be on the 49ers defense and whether or not the offense can compensate for any defensive liabilities.
San Francisco should be able to build upon what it did well offensively in Week 5. And look for the defense to compensate and adjust to the problems showcased as well.
There should be little reason to expect the 49ers not to come away with a victory in Week 6. A 27-21 win for San Francisco sounds just about right.
All statistics, injury reports, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist covering the San Francisco 49ers for Bleacher Report. Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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