Predicting Biggest Busts of the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball Season
When filling out your fantasy basketball teams, please don't draft any of these players unless they fall way down in the pecking order.
At some point, they'll be good values. They're all valuable players, after all. But as it currently stands, they're all going far too soon and are doomed to play prominent roles on fantasy squads that will subsequently flop during the 2015-16 NBA season.
We've already covered who you can steal in your drafts. Now it's time to take the opposite approach.
Many of these guys are entering vastly different situations than they've known. They're playing for new teams, destined to take on smaller roles than initially expected or surrounded by incumbents who will steal away touches and precious fantasy contributions. They might have new coaches set to change up the schemes or play on the same roster as incoming players who will force similar alterations.
They simply aren't who they were one year prior, and the fantasy world has been too slow to recognize the difference.
Plenty of players decline from one season to the next, but these eight will fail most substantially in their quest to justify their average draft position (ADP) in this year's leagues. Select them at your own peril.
Or just stay away and let someone else bite the bullet.
DeMarre Carroll
1 of 8
Team: Toronto Raptors
Position: SF
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 61.9
DeMarre Carroll was the fifth option in the Atlanta Hawks' ball-sharing offense last year, and his role won't change much now that he's moving north of the border. Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas should all come ahead of him in the pecking order, and the Toronto Raptors backcourt dominates the ball more than any two-man combination did in the Peach State.
If you're banking on Carroll being worth a sixth-round pick in standard 10-team leagues, you're betting on his unsustainable postseason breakout. But that's foolish, seeing as the veteran small forward managed to score 20 points or more in six consecutive playoff outings despite dropping back-to-back games with such hefty point totals only once prior.
Will Carroll be an asset in Toronto? Absolutely, as he'll help the defense take another step toward respectability after it finished No. 25 in defensive rating during the 2014-15 campaign.
However, that doesn't make him a top-notch fantasy contributor, despite what his ADP might indicate. You're better off letting someone else gamble on the 29-year-old living up to the unmatchable numbers he posted over a fairly small sample of playoff contests.
Kenneth Faried
2 of 8
Team: Denver Nuggets
Position: PF
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 55.5
Don't be fooled by Kenneth Faried's torrid pace during the last month of the previous season. Even though he averaged 18.7 points and 10.6 rebounds in seven April games, we've been down this road before. Finishing one campaign in noteworthy fashion doesn't mean the next one will begin in a similar style.
This year, betting against Faried's ability to even maintain last go-round's overall per-game averages is the safe play. A number of factors are converging, none of which are conducive to the Manimal turning into the star the Denver Nuggets once hoped he could be.
"In regard to Kenneth, he has a great motor. But I need Kenneth to buy in on defense," new head coach Mike Malone explained to Grantland.com's Zach Lowe shortly after he was hired. "They’ve gotten away from that the past two seasons. They still run, but they’re not defending."
No matter how many platitudes we hear during the preseason, this is key. If Faried can't buy in on the defensive end, it'll be hard for him to stay on the court frequently enough that he posts big scoring and rebounding stats. Based on the past, he just doesn't have the necessary chops, due in equal parts to his desire to save energy for offense and his physical limitations.
Compounding this issue are the presences of young frontcourt members who make more sense in Denver's new schemes. Nikola Jokic and Joffrey Lauvergne have been exceptional during preseason action—take that with as many grains of salt as you wish—and Jusuf Nurkic had already emerged as one of the untouchable pieces on the pre-existing roster.
Minutes are necessary for fantasy production, and fewer seem guaranteed to Faried than ever before.
Pau Gasol
3 of 8
Team: Chicago Bulls
Position: PF/C
Age: 35
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.9 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 29.8
According to ADP, Pau Gasol is currently being taken between DeAndre Jordan and Mike Conley. Sadly, that's not the tier this 35-year-old big man belongs in at this stage of his career, even if he's coming off a renaissance season in which he reminded the basketball-watching world how many rebounds and blocks he could rack up during his prime.
Much like Faried, Gasol's troubles stem from schematic problems.
While the Spanish 7-footer could stop the ball and commandeer possessions in Tom Thibodeau's offense, those opportunities will be much harder to come by while Fred Hoiberg is pacing the sidelines. The Bulls offense will play more uptempo basketball, setting constant screens and forcing the ball to keep swinging around the perimeter as much as possible.
That's simply not Gasol's game, which leaves the door open for plenty of small-ball lineups that feature other frontcourt members such as Nikola Mirotic, Taj Gibson and even Doug McDermott. As such, it would be shocking if this veteran managed to average anything close to 18.5 points, and his playing time could prevent him from throwing up constant double-doubles—something that hasn't happened since, well, 2013-14.
Last year was an outlier, the product of opportunity and fresh legs after a more limited role one season prior with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Don't pay for outliers.
Al Jefferson
4 of 8
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Position: C
Age: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 38.1
Centers don't typically age well, and Al Jefferson will be celebrating his 31st birthday four days after the calendar flips over to January. Couple that with a season in which he recorded fewer points and rebounds per game than he has since 2006-07 and 2005-06, respectively, and red flags should be flying.
Cutting fried chicken out of his diet and dropping 20 pounds will help him survive another brutal NBA campaign, but it'll be tough to overcome an offense where he's no longer the unquestioned No. 1 option. With a healthy Kemba Walker and the additions of Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky, Jeremy Lin and Jeremy Lamb, Charlotte simply has more mouths to feed.
"Hopefully more five-man movement and quick decision-making," head coach Steve Clifford revealed about his offensive strategies, per Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. "If we can combine that with a good post game...[Jefferson] is by far our best offensive player. He's 10 years of 19 [points] and 10 [rebounds]. But we can't play where every play is to Al."
Thing is, Jefferson's fantasy stock is almost entirely dependent on his status as a 20/10 machine. He doesn't record a notable number of assists, and he's not particularly impressive in either the steals or blocks column. He's an efficient shooter, but aren't most centers? Similarly, his free-throw percentage (65.5 percent in 2014-15) is slightly below where you want it to be.
Based on ADP, the five big men taken directly after Jefferson during a typical draft are Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Derrick Favors and Kenneth Faried. We've already covered Faried, but it wouldn't be shocking if each of the other four aforementioned names finishes in higher standing than this 30-year-old.
Ty Lawson
5 of 8
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: PG
Age: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.1 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 72.6
While he suited up for the Denver Nuggets, Ty Lawson faced exactly zero threats to his playing time. He constantly had the ball in his hands and was tasked with leading the offense with his incredible passing skills and ability to put up impressive scoring totals. It was in no way unlikely for him to lead the team in both points and assists on any given night.
Now, none of that is true.
With the Houston Rockets, Lawson will have to stave off Patrick Beverley if he hopes to hold down a starting gig for the entirety of the season. And even if he is on the court for the opening tip, he'll have to take more breathers on the pine due to the strength of the defensive floor general behind him.
As if that wasn't enough, he'll often defer to James Harden when both guards are on the floor. Problem is, we've never seen this diminutive 1-guard excel when he's asked to go to work off the ball. His spot-up shooting numbers don't exactly bode well for a promising fantasy season.
According to NBA.com's statistical databases, Lawson scored 0.89 points per possession on spot-up shots last year—the result of a putrid 43.8 effective field-goal percentage. That left him in the 41.4 percentile throughout the Association, which doesn't exactly point toward success while playing alongside Harden.
This 27-year-old floor general could still have a strong season and push the Rockets to the proverbial next level in the Western Conference. Even if he does, it won't be accompanied by stats that leave him as a top-75 player in the fantasy world.
Kevin Martin
6 of 8
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Position: SG/SF
Age: 32
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 20.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.0 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 90.4
The days of Kevin Martin serving as a fantasy deity are long gone, even if he's coming off a season in which he averaged 20 points per game. Though this 2-guard once thrilled owners with his fantastic blend of three-point shooting and efficient high-volume work at the charity stripe, he simply won't play enough to justify an ADP within the top 100.
As Jerry Zgoda made perfectly clear for the Star Tribune, Martin doesn't even have a starting spot in this young Minnesota Timberwolves rotation:
"Just days after he made it crystal clear he believes he’s still a starting shooting guard in this league, veteran Kevin Martin now finds himself playing a secondary role in a fuzzy future on a Timberwolves team that again this year is playing for tomorrow.
Wolves interim coach Sam Mitchell this week said he intends to start young Zach LaVine at that position, come good or bad. He said it’s not because he has earned the position but because it is where the team — with such young players as Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony-Towns, Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad and Tyus Jones alongside LaVine — is headed.
"
Even if Martin is capable of being the more productive player at the beginning of the season, he's no longer a part of the future for this youthful organization. Starting Zach LaVine makes more sense, and that could portend interim head coach Sam Mitchell handing even more minutes to young players rather than Martin.
Tyus Jones could line up at the 2 in two-point guard lineups, working alongside Ricky Rubio as Jones tries to gain experience during his rookie season. Andrew Wiggins and Shabazz Muhammad could suit up next to each other as interchangeable wing players.
Unless Martin is traded midway through the year, he's going to serve as a fantasy bust—if for no other reason than a playing-time deficit. And even if he does end up in a new home, you'll still have to worry about the fragile nature of this aging veteran, as well as an adjustment period on a new roster.
Elfrid Payton
7 of 8
Team: Orlando Magic
Position: PG
Age: 21
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 68.2
Elfrid Payton will turn into an above-average starter at point guard in the near future, but that still doesn't make him a fantasy-relevant 1-guard quite yet. This long-haired floor general is one of those players who truly exemplify a dichotomy between the two types of value—real and fantasy.
Thanks to his defense, driving ability and passing chops, Payton is an asset for the Orlando Magic. But given the wealth of point guards who can bolster your fantasy team, there's too much he simply can't do.
First, his scoring. Not only are the point totals rather limited while playing alongside Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic and a ready-to-break-out Aaron Gordon, but Payton isn't exactly the most efficient player. His shooting percentage (42.5 percent from the field last year) can drag down your team's overall number, and he doesn't hit any looks from beyond the arc, making only 11 during his rookie season.
Beyond that, the 21-year-old is an atrocious free-throw shooter. He hit at a 55.1 percent clip during his first professional campaign, and based on his collegiate numbers, that was no fluke. With the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, he knocked down 61.1 percent of his freebies during his three-year career, but his final go-round saw him decline to 60.9.
Sure, the rebounds and steals are nice. But the shooting percentages, lack of scoring and utter absence of perimeter contributions make him far too limited to serve as a top-70 player in the fantasy world, especially given the wealth of capable point guards in this league.
Hassan Whiteside
8 of 8
Team: Miami Heat
Position: C
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.6 blocks
Yahoo ADP: 32.8
When Hassan Whiteside was on the court last season, he was an absolute world-beater. He racked up blocks and rebounds at ridiculous rates while scoring efficiently from inside the painted area, and that made him a nice waiver-wire addition in just about any league.
But should you trust him? Not yet, especially since you'll spend a pick late in the third or early in the fourth round of a standard 10-team league to secure his services.
Though Whiteside's breakout felt like a player putting it together after years of floundering with NBA teams and international squads, there's still a chance he was the product of opportunity and a nonexistent scouting report. We have yet to see him maintain his efforts for a lengthy stretch.
Even if you think he legitimately morphed from a waiver candidate to a potential star in such expeditious fashion—yours truly can get behind those sentiments—there are still plenty of concerns, most of which have to do with playing time.
Given the state of his above-the-neck game, Whiteside is a constant risk for suspension and/or benching. His play lacks a certain level of maturity, and it's not like he's been able to stay particularly healthy when tasked with filling a big role. Even last year, he logged just less than 24 minutes per appearance.
Throw in the other big names present on the Miami Heat roster—Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng—and it could be hard for him to be involved enough to overcome the playing-time limitations and enduring free-throw concerns.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and RealGM.com. ADP information comes from Yahoo Sports.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@fromal09.
