NBA Draft 2016: Top 5 Point Guard Prospects Heading into CBB Season
Expect plenty of buzz this year surrounding the point guard group projected to declare for the 2016 NBA draft. Our top five consists of a returning superstar, a new one and a major breakout candidate. Two of the following point guards actually play together.
The demand for ball-handlers in the NBA continues to remain steady. We saw seven of them get taken in last June's first round.
Look for these potential floor generals to draw similar interest in 2016.
5. Tyrone Wallace, California, Senior
Wallace's decision to come back should turn out to be a good one. Over the summer, California was able to land two 5-star recruits in Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb. He'll now be playing in one of the more talented lineups in the country, which is significant given the workload he's had and it's effect on his efficiency.
Now, in a better position to play to his strengths as a senior among weapons, this could be the year Wallace takes the big step.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| June 10, 1994 | 6'6" | 198 | 6'9.5" |
He attended this summer's LeBron James Nike Skills Academy, where he put up terrific measurements including 6'6" size and a massive 6'9.5" wingspan. They're a major part of his game and two-way identity.
Wallace won't wow with explosiveness, but he's a silky-smooth athlete in terms of his quickness, movement and dexterity.
For a point guard, mismatch physical tools and agility help fuel his NBA potential, but he wouldn't be on the radar without standout ball skills and playmaking ability.
Playmaking, Scoring
You wouldn't know it from his assist-to-turnover ratio (4-2.8), but Wallace can pass. He's shown a good feel for getting it to the right teammate on the break as well as the vision to locate his options off pick-and-rolls.
I'd expect his assist rate to naturally increase next year, given the improved supporting cast and fewer shots he'll have to hunt for.
With that, it's possible we'll see his 17.1-point-per-game scoring average drop. However, his ability to make shots in the lane has been established. He has an advanced runner-and-floater game and a competent off-right hand.
The big question with Wallace concerns his jumper. Last year he finished with a true shooting percentage of 48.4 percent, according to Sports-Reference.com, and a three-ball below 33 percent for the third straight year.
He's made 93 threes in 101 career games, so he's a capable shot-maker. But to find the 2016 first round, he'll have to show some signs that suggest future improvement can be achieved.
Defense, Rebounding
With impressive lateral quickness and unusually long arms, Wallace's defensive potential is for real.
He's shown he can stay in front of guards on the perimeter and even recover if his man gains a step. Wallace picks up strips off the ball and steals by getting into passing lanes.
His rebounding numbers are also fairly extraordinary for a guard. Wallace pulled in 7.1 per game last year, having registered a ridiculous 20.3 percent defensive rebounding percentage, according to Sports-Reference.
NBA Draft Outlook
He'll enter the year as a fringe-first rounder, but if he makes the necessary adjustments, it could land him on the right side of the fence. Wallace must cut down on his turnovers and make more shots from outside.
Better teammates should create reason for optimism. Leading California to regular and postseason wins would certainly reflect favorably on Wallace's stock.
Wallace's NBA Comparison: Greivis Vasquez
4. Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky, Freshman
A power guard from New Jersey, Briscoe shouldn't have trouble finding minutes in Kentucky's crowded backcourt.
Physically, he's on another level than most at his position, including those a few years older. Briscoe will be an exhausting cover right off the bat, in part due to his strong 202-pound frame and toughness.
He actually dropped 16 pounds since April's Nike Hoop Summit. Apparently in good shape to start the season, he'll likely spend time on and off the ball alongside Tyler Ulis and fellow freshman Jamal Murray.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| April 13, 1996 | 6'2.5" | 202 | 6'8" |
You could argue he's more of a combo based on his skill set and strengths, but at 6'2.5", coaches will look to develop Briscoe at the point.
Though not a high-flier or explosive leaper, he plays through contact and with shiftiness off the dribble. To no surprise, he's at his best attacking the rim.
Scoring
More of a scorer than a natural distributor, Briscoe can put the ball in the hole, which was evident at this year's Jordan Brand Classic, where he conducted a clinic in the second half and finished with 22 points.
He's a terrific ball-handler, and though he'll tend to over-dribble, Briscoe can lose defenders off crossovers, spins and changes of direction. When he can, he'll use his body to plow through traffic and finish below the rim.
Briscoe remains streaky on the perimeter and shouldn't bank on high shooting percentages in 2015-16, but he's more than capable of creating and knocking down jumpers around the arc.
Playmaking
As a distributor, he's most effective in the drive-and-dish game. Crafty with the ball, Briscoe has a knack for getting into the paint, breaking down defenses and finding the open man.
He also likes to push the ball before the defense can set.
It wouldn't be surprising to see him turn the ball over at Kentucky, but he's flashed encouraging potential as a setup man.
NBA Draft Outlook
If there is a question regarding Briscoe's NBA potential, it should concern his ability to separate without great burst. It limits his perceived upside, as it is.
Having said that, Briscoe is likely to present himself as one of the safer bets on draft night, whenever he declares. He has the physical tools to compete, as well as convincing ball skills, feel for the game and motor.
Consider the late lottery an early ceiling projection.
Briscoe's NBA Comparison: Marcus Smart
3. Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame, Junior
More of a sidekick (to Jerian Grant) in 2014-15, Jackson will now get to showcase his game in a lead guard role for the Irish.
His minuscule 18.5 percent usage rate from a year ago, as noted by Sports-Reference, is bound to skyrocket.
Scouts will ultimately be looking to see Jackson's efficiency (50.8 percent from the floor, 1.7 turnovers per 40 minutes) carry over as the team's primary decision-maker.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| September 7, 1994 | 6'1" | 198 | 6'4.75" |
He doesn't offer great size or length, but at 198 pounds, Jackson sports a strong frame and explosive athleticism.
Physically, he's reminiscent of Eric Bledsoe.
Slippery in the open floor and bouncy at the rim, he's a highlight waiting to happen.
However, it's the ball skills he's flashed since arriving at Notre Dame that indicate his NBA potential.
Scoring
Arguably the most impressive number from Jackson's 2014-15 campaign may be his 55.7 percent two-point percentage. He plays with balance inside the arc, where he can create quality shots, particularly the pull-up off two feet.
An excellent shooter, Jackson shot an outstanding 53.2 percent on two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com, and 42.9 percent from deep—the second straight year he's hit the 40 percent mark on threes. According to DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz, Jackson also led the country with 1.73 points per play on contested spot-ups.
A constant threat to shake off the dribble and penetrate, Jackson's ability to get into the lane also translates to more scoring and assists.
Playmaking
Blazing quickness and a nifty handle ultimately propel Jackson into playmaking situations.
He shows vision on the break, off ball screens (1.4 points per play in pick-and-rolls, according to DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz) and penetration while keeping the turnovers to a minimum.
Whether he can push the right buttons running a half-court offense will be the topic of conversation among scouts. We'll get to see a lot more facilitating from Jackson this season, but everything we've witnessed so far suggests he's equipped to distribute and set the table.
NBA Draft Outlook
Given his lack of size, it's tough to envision too much upside tied to Jackson's outlook. On the other hand, his superhero athleticism, jacked frame and high skill level together are very persuasive.
Consider the late lottery Jackson's draft ceiling, and the late-first round his floor.
Jackson's NBA Comparison: Eric Bledsoe
2. Kris Dunn, Providence, Junior
Unlike last year, when he started the season as an afterthought in the NBA draft conversation, Dunn will begin this one as a projected lottery pick. Many thought he'd be one in 2015 before Dunn announced he'd return as a junior.
Dunn should ultimately have a good chance for repeat success in 2015-16, when he'll look to sell scouts on his potential to develop into a starting NBA floor general.
He sure looks like one through the eye test.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| March 18, 1994 | 6'4" | 205 | 6'9" |
At 6'4", 205 pounds with a giant 6'9" wing, Dunn packs size, strength, length and above-the-rim athleticism. He's super-quick off the bounce in the half-court and electric in transition.
While Dunn's speed and burst represent big parts of his game, his playmaking skills ultimately enhance the danger they pose.
Playmaking, Scoring
A joystick on the floor, Dunn's elusiveness off the bounce and terrific vision helped him lead the country last year in assist percentage, according to Sports-Reference.
A constant drive-and-kick threat, Dunn is still at his best off ball screens (which make up 36.1 percent of his offense, according to Schmitz), where his hesitation dribble and passing instincts lead to open shots for teammates.
With tremendous change-of-speed-and-direction ability, Dunn is a major pick-and-roll scorer as well.
He averaged 15.6 points on 47.4 percent shooting as a sophomore. Improving his shooting range and accuracy will remain priorities (just 27 threes in 33 games), but he's developed into a capable shot-creator and maker, particularly with the pull-up and step-back in the mid-range.
Regardless, his bread-and-butter skill isn't ever likely to change. Dunn is an attacker most effective slicing through the lane and putting pressure on the rim.
Unfortunately, having led the country in turnovers, scouts will surely be studying his decision-making in 2015-16. He tends to force the issue, though a monster 28 percent usage rate should absorb some of the blame.
Defense
Rarely does a point guard enter the NBA as a plus defender. Dunn should, thanks to phenomenal length, quickness and anticipation.
He finished No. 5 in the country in steal percentage. Dunn uses his reach to force turnovers, both as an on-ball pickpocket...
And a thief off the ball in passing lanes.
NBA Draft Outlook
Assuming he can stay healthy—he's had two season-ending shoulder surgeries since enrolling at Providence—Dunn should be cemented in the top-20 conversation. Reducing his turnovers and raising his shooting percentages could ultimately launch him into the top 10.
Dunn's NBA Comparison: Reggie Jackson
1. Jamal Murray, Kentucky, Freshman
Murray is coming off some kind of spring and summer, having won MVP at the Nike Hoop Summit, committed to Kentucky and then averaged 16 points for Canada in the Pan American Games.
The highlight of his offseason may have ultimately come against the U.S. during those Pan Am Games in Toronto, as he flat-out took over (22 points in the second half and overtime) against established college studs and a couple of former pros. It was a highly convincing performance.
He'll have a pair of big-name guards to share the ball with at Kentucky, but it shouldn't stop him from emerging as one of this year's can't-miss NBA prospects.
| Birthday | Height | Weight (lbs) | Wingspan |
| February 23, 1997 | 6'4.25" | 207 | 6'6.5" |
Some may argue Murray is more of a 2-guard, but chances are NBA coaches will want him working with the ball. Standing around 6'4", he has good size at the point, which he uses to play over the top with on drives and penetration.
Murray has an ultimately encouraging 207-pound frame that seems capable of putting on additional bulk. And though not overly explosive, he's deceptively athletic (39.5" max vertical at the Kentucky combine) and shifty.
Scoring
Getting buckets is what Murray does best. According to Synergy Sports Technology, he ranked No. 1 during the Pan Am Games in isolation points per game.
He's become a dangerous ball-handler and shot-creator moving north, south, east and west. With pull-ups, step-backs, floaters and strong takes to the rack, he's shown he can score from all three levels.
Still, it's Murray's perimeter attack that helps set him apart this early. He's flashed the ability to heat up and make shots in bunches from mid-to-long range.
In 23 games since 2013 (between 2013 Americas Championships, 2013 Jordan Brand Classic, Nike Global Challenge, 2014 World Championships, Nike Hoop Summit and Pan Am Games), Murray shot 45-of-117 (38.4 percent) from downtown.
Playmaking
Though known for his scoring, Murray has showcased glimpses of savvy playmaking as well.
He's terrific in ball-screen situations, where he freezes defenses with hesitation and shows timing and vision passing on the move.
His high school coach, Larry Blount, told Bleacher Report back in August that Murray averaged almost nine assists per game at Orangeville Prep.
With Tyler Ulis and fellow freshman Isaiah Briscoe also expected to spend time at the point, Murray won't put up big assist numbers in 2016. But it's fairly obvious he's more than capable of creating shots and setting the table.
NBA Draft Outlook
Some may question Murray's upside—he doesn't pack the burst that typically translates to easy buckets. And he isn't a natural facilitator.
But Murray ultimately looks like he'd be able to hold his own in an NBA game tomorrow. Strong physical tools, spectacular ball skills and production should lead to top-10 buzz right away.
Murray's NBA Comparison: Deron Williams
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