NBA Preseason 2015: Early Surprises and Disappointments
Preseason NBA action is a tease.
"It's basketball!" we're told. "Finally, after all these weeks of searching for distractions, feigning interest in which types of saturated fats LeBron James endorses and wondering whether the Sacramento Kings exist only to troll us all, it's actual basketball!"
"But don't read too much into it," we're then advised. "It's basketball that doesn't mean anything."
Well, you know what? Forget that. Preseason roundball matters, even if it's presented with the caveat that what we're watching doesn't count toward the standings.
Sure, the significance of exhibition performances and everything else that happens ahead of the regular season varies by team and player. But it's our job to separate the real from the misleading—the actual surprises from the unsustainable anomalies, the legitimate disappointments from the irrelevant concerns.
In looking at the most shocking preseason developments, both good and bad, we will only tackle topics that might hold weight during the regular season. Can certain players remain hot? Should certain teams be wary of their exhibition efforts? Are there secondary plot lines that could have an impact on what transpires past opening night?
Basketball is back, Jack. And, despite stances to the contrary, it's basketball that matters.
Disappointment: Tristan Thompson Everything
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Opening night is less than two weeks away, and yet the Tristan Thompson-Cleveland Cavaliers contractual tango plows on.
Oh, also: There is no end in sight.
"I actually believe it will probably go months," ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst told Grantland's Zach Lowe on The Lowe Post podcast (h/t RealGM). "This will go well into the regular season."
Months. As in, the Cavaliers would start 2015-16 down at least two of their four best players.
Kyrie Irving won't be ready in time for opening night, as he continues to recover from a fractured left kneecap, per the Akron Beacon Journal's Jason Lloyd. Kevin Love only just returned to practice without restrictions following the rehabilitation of a separated left shoulder, according to Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. And on top of that, sources told Lloyd that James will miss the rest of the preseason after receiving an injection in his back.
Holdouts are rare, and they are never ideal. But Thompson's dance with Cleveland is especially ill timed given all of these murky bills of health.
That the two sides don't appear to have made any progress is even more frustrating. The Cavaliers pulled their initial five-year, $80 million offer, according to Basketball Insiders' Larry Coon, and there are only two teams, the Philadelphia 76ers and Portland Trail Blazers, that have enough cap space to up Cleveland's ante.
The most likely—really only—imaginable outcome still entails Thompson returning to the Cavaliers. But the longer that seemingly inevitable resolution takes, the worse this looks.
And the worse this looks, the more distracting it becomes to a banged-up Cleveland team that, despite playing in the Eastern Conference, has no business splitting focus.
Surprise: Charlotte Has Found the 3-Point Line
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Last season, the Charlotte Hornets ranked 24th in three-point attempts, tossing up an average of 19.1 per game. The year before that, in 2013-14, they ranked 27th with an average of 17.9.
Through four preseason contests, though, the Hornets are pushing the three-point bill, jacking up 26.8 triples per game, a mark that would have ranked sixth in the league for 2014-15.
For those thinking this is just some preseason fad, here's some advice: don't. Three-point shooting isn't a trend. It's the new standard. Besides, as ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh found, there is value in how many treys teams chuck during the preseason:
"Maybe, you might say, 3s are just a preseason fling. However, dating to 2010-11 when RealGM.com data tracking begins, preseason 3-point rates have just about mirrored the regular-season rates. In fact, teams actually launch slightly more 3-pointers in the regular season than the preseason, which runs counter to conventional wisdom.
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What's most surprising isn't that the Hornets are falling in love with the three-ball. Their presently paced jump is no doubt eye-opening, but they're merely late to a years-long party. The accuracy with which they're draining long-range missiles is what's truly stunning.
Charlotte finished dead last in three-point percentage last season, converting just 31.8 percent of its deep balls. But, through four preseason matchups, its players are drilling rainbows at what would have been a league-leading rate last season (40.2 percent).
Sustaining this marksmanship is probably out of the question. The Hornets didn't add a ton of shooters over the summer—though they're admittedly more three-point friendly—and many of their players are finding nylon with untenable frequency.
Frank Kaminsky, Jeremy Lin and Brian Roberts won't shoot 50 percent or better from beyond the arc forever. Marvin Williams and Kemba Walker's career-high clips are not a given. Cody Zeller will have to miss a three-pointer sooner or later. (No, seriously, he's a perfect 3-of-3 from deep through four preseason tilts.)
Still, these impossibly awesome individual improvements don't take away from the Hornets breaking character and finally finding the three-point line.
Disappointment: The Unknowable Relationship of Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose
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If only the Jimmy Butler-Derrick Rose speculation factory could take a chill pill. Or maybe a case of chill pills.
Rumors began surfacing just after the Chicago Bulls' second-round playoff exit last season, when CBSChicago.com's Dan Bernstein described the relationship between Butler and Rose as being far from perfect. More recently, a former Bulls player told the Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley that, while Butler counts Rose among his friends, he "doesn’t have a lot of respect for his work ethic."
To the credit of both Butler and Rose, they've done little to fuel this narrative. Butler has even reached the point of supreme frustration.
"I'll try to keep my cuss words to a minimum, but it's making me mad," he said, per the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson. "Let us be the fierce (expletive) competitors that we are and just let us play together."
Perhaps it's because Butler and Rose haven't played that these rumors persist. The two have been teammates for more than four years, but they're practically strangers on the court.
Butler and Rose have spent 1,489 minutes on the floor together since 2011-12, when the former entered the league. Seventy-nine two-man combinations played more through last season alone.
Once Rose returns from his latest injury, a left orbital fracture, and the two start playing together regularly, they can let the Bulls' record do the talking.
Until then, there is only knowing that when it comes to Butler and Rose, we know nothing at all.
Surprise: Thin Kyle Lowry Is Big
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Kyle Lowry lost a substantial amount of weight over the offseason. He is noticeably leaner and, as he put it, harder.
"I've got abs now," he said at Toronto Raptors media day, per Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun.
He got game now, too.
Already an All-Star, Lowry has always had game. That the Raptors were able to lock him up at four years and $48 million last summer is incredible. Not only did he quarterback the league's third-best offense, but he also was one of just five qualified players to average at least 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes.
His company: Stephen Curry, James, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.
Now, we could posit that more of the same drool-drawing numbers await Lowry in 2015-16. But that would be selling him short.
Lowry is averaging 30.3 points through three preseason appearances—on less than 14 shots per game. His assist totals are unusually low, but he's shooting 68.3 percent from the floor, including 64.7 percent from downtown. In Toronto's 112-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, he went for 40 points...on 18 shots.
Four games is four games, preseason is preseason and yada, yada, yada. You shouldn't care. Lowry is that good at this basketball thing.
Disappointment: New Orleans' Misfortune
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Is it too much to ask that the New Orleans Pelicans begin the season at full strength?
Yes.
First Alexis Ajinca was sidelined by a right hamstring strain that, per a team announcement, takes four to six weeks to rehab. Then Omer Asik was hit with a right calf strain that, per another team announcement, will keep him out of action for a few weeks.
Shortly thereafter, backup point guard Norris Cole suffered a high ankle sprain that will take up to six weeks to heal, according to John Reid of the Times-Picayune. Reid also noted Eric Gordon has been battling back spasms.
And, oh, by the way: Jrue Holiday recently told SI.com's Rob Mahoney the Pelicans will be capping his minutes to start the season as he continues to work his way back from a stress reaction in his right ankle.
These injuries don't spell the death to New Orleans' playoff hopes. The Pelicans have picked up a stopgap at point guard in Nate Robinson, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, and so long as they have Anthony Davis, they remain a threat in the Western Conference.
Even so, the projected starting lineup of Asik, Davis, Tyreke Evans, Gordon and Holiday appeared in just 13 games together last season. It would be nice for that combination to get its feet wet early rather than just eventually be thrown into the regular-season fire.
Surprise: Stanley Johnson Is Rookie of the Preseason (So Far)
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Some thought the Detroit Pistons made a mistake when they selected Stanley Johnson with the eighth overall pick in this year's draft.
Justise Winslow was still on the board, and he had played his way into the top five of certain big boards after a strong NCAA tournament. He seemed like the logical pick.
Coach and president Stan Van Gundy rolled with Johnson instead, and as of now, Pistons fans should be glad he did.
Johnson is averaging 15.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and one steal through five preseason outings. He's shooting just 40.6 percent from the floor overall, but he's found his touch from long range, torching twine on 46.7 percent of his three-point attempts.
Those numbers, like most preseason explosions, are bound to drop during the regular season, as Johnson cedes touches and status to Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The rookie is posting a usage rage north of 23, which will be difficult to maintain when he's surrounded by so many other mouths that need feeding.
Nevertheless, Johnson's value to the Pistons—as someone who can stroke the long ball and defend either forward spot—is obvious.
More importantly, it's immediate.
Disappointment: Spurs' Shot Selection
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When LaMarcus Aldridge agreed to join the San Antonio Spurs, the eulogies for opposing defenses wrote themselves. To an extent, they're still writing themselves.
Indeed, the Spurs offense has been largely inefficient during the preseason, pumping in just 90 points per 100 possessions. But that offensive rating is so bad, it has to get better. The NBA's worst offense last season (Philly's) still mustered 93 points per 100 possessions.
There have also been moments when the Spurs' point-piling machine actualizes initial visions—when Aldridge makes a pass out of a pick-and-roll, hitting a wide-open Kawhi Leonard for an automatic three. Everything seems to make sense on those plays.
But overall, and aided in part by Aldridge's presence, the Spurs' shot selection has not been good. Eighty-one of their preseason looks have come from mid-range, which accounts for nearly 33 percent of their total field-goal attempts. For comparison's sake, less than 25 percent of their shots came from mid-range in 2014-15.
We could chalk this up to preseason basketball rearing its part-meaningless head. But exhibition games offer a nice preview of the way teams intend to play, including the types of shots they'll let fly.
Last year, the average team did attempt a greater percentage of its shots from mid-range in the preseason. But those preseason numbers were, on average, less than one percent larger than the regular-season results. By that logic, the Spurs are still on course to waste more than 30 percent of their shot attempts on mid-range looks.
Six teams did the same last season: Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Washington Wizards, Hornets and Timberwolves. Not one of them ranked in the top half of offensive efficiency, and five of them finished in the bottom 10.
To be fair, a three-game sample size isn't much. To be even more fair, Aldridge isn't even San Antonio's biggest mid-range culprit. That honor belongs to Leonard.
So no, the Spurs' onset shot selection shouldn't be interpreted to mean their offense is on life support. It's just surprisingly disappointing and something worth monitoring moving forward.
Surprise: The Knicks Are Playing Defense...and Running
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Don't look now, but the Knicks are playing defense. And running—like, actually running.
New York averaged just 93.67 possessions per 48 minutes last season, checking in as one of the league's three slowest teams. But the Knicks have pushed their pace factor to 102.5 during the preseason, which would have made them the absolute fastest squad in 2014-15. Go figure.
Abnormally paced basketball does tend to be a symptom of preseason play, as coaches experiment with different players, many of them young and looking to run. But, as the Wall Street Journal's Andrew Beaton underscored, New York's decision to run, not crawl, should be taken seriously:
"Unsurprisingly, teams tend to play faster in the preseason. Last year, teams averaged three more possessions per 48 minutes in the preseason than in the regular season. But how quickly a team plays in the preseason can also be a strong indicator of how quickly it will play in the regular season. Last year, 18 of 30 NBA teams ranked within five spots of their preseason pace during the regular season. For example, the Phoenix Suns led the NBA preseason in possessions per 48 minutes, then ranked third in the regular season. The NBA champion Warriors, who played the fastest of any team last season, played third-fastest in the preseason.
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Averaging three fewer possessions during the regular season would put the Knicks at 99.5 per 48 minutes. That's still dramatically faster than last season's painfully paced group, and it should still be good enough for a top-five mark.
New York's defense is trending in a similar direction. And truthfully, that's to be expected after team president Phil Jackson stocked the roster with defensive gems such as Robin Lopez and Kyle O'Quinn.
Opponents are scoring 88.6 points per 100 possessions against these Knicks, and while such stinginess is beyond unsustainable, this team is a far cry from last season's turnstile that relinquished 107.2. And if we use the same logic as we did when projecting pace, the returns remain promising.
In 2014-15, defenses allowed, on average, 4.6 points more per 100 possessions during the regular season than they did during the preseason. Tack those 4.6 points on to the 88.6 that the Knicks are giving up now, and they're at 93.2.
That mark is still unsustainable, to be sure. The Golden State Warriors finished first in defensive efficiency last season, and they let up 98.2 points per 100 possessions. But even if the Knicks' defensive efficiency climbs by 15 points, they're still in line to be much better.
Which, in the end, is all that matters.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate leading into games for Oct. 16.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
