Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions are 4-0 in their Black and Blue rivalry with Chicago over the last two seasons and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 meetings with the Bears. But they're also a mess right now, winless on this season at 0-5. The Lions look to get off the schneid when they host Chicago Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Lions opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.8-20.2 Lions

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears started this season 0-3 and looked like a lost cause during their 26-0 loss at Seattle three week ago, but quarterback Jay Cutler returned from an injury and suddenly Chicago has won two straight games including a come-from-behind 18-17 victory at Kansas City last week.

The Bears trailed the Chiefs 17-6 late into the game, but Cutler first hit Marquess Wilson for a 22-yard score with just over three minutes to go, then flipped a seven-yard toss to Matt Forte out of the backfield with 18 seconds left to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.

On the day Cutler hit on 26 of 45 throws for 252 yards and most importantly didn't throw a pick. Also, the Chicago defense limited KC to just 287 total yards and one offensive touchdown. Head coach John Fox did great things at Carolina and Denver; perhaps he's turning this Bears outfit around.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Even though Detroit is 0-5 on the season, 1-4 ATS, it's only really been blown out once—last week at home by Arizona 42-17. The Lions led early last week 7-0, but six Detroit turnovers provided the Cardinals with several short fields and they took advantage.

Two weeks ago the Lions came up with an inspired defensive effort out at Seattle, losing 13-10 but covering as 10-point dogs. Just before that they only trailed undefeated Denver 14-12 well into the fourth quarter before allowing the last 10 points of the game, missing the cover as three-point home dogs.

And back in the season opener Detroit led San Diego 21-3 before giving way in a 33-28 loss as a four-point underdog. Basically, the Lions are only a few plays from being 3-2 ATS this season.

Smart pick

Chicago has outgained four of five opponents this season and comes in riding the momentum of a two-game winning streak; on the other end of the spectrum Detroit has been outgained in four of five games, and carries the burden of a five-game losing streak. The Bears are the smart bet here.

Betting trends

The Lions are 0-7 SU in their last seven games.

The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home in October.

The Bears are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games as road underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.