Messy Start Should Have Lions Rethinking Long-Term Plans for Stafford, Caldwell

The 0-5 Detroit Lions are such a talented hot mess—and have been for so long—that it's fair to wonder if they'd be better off rebuilding, conceding painfully that they've wasted the heart of the Calvin Johnson era in a fashion that eerily and tragically resembles their failures with Barry Sanders. 

By no means has luck been on Detroit's side early this season. The Lions lost their best defensive player, All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, after being outbid by the Miami Dolphins in the offseason. And second-team All-Pro linebacker DeAndre Levy—undoubtedly their best defender now that Suh is gone—has been on the field for just 17 snaps this season as he battles a hip injury. 

But they still rank out of the bottom 10 in terms of total defense, so it wouldn't be fair to pin this start on that shorthanded unit. 

No, the Lions are 0-5 because one of the most talented offenses in football is averaging just 16.6 points per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL and is 0.2 points below the team average from their infamous 0-16 2008 campaign. 

It's almost hard to fathom, considering that Detroit has a future Hall of Fame receiver in Johnson, who might not be as crisp as he was three years ago but still has the size and speed to transform an offense. Throw in a former No. 1 overall pick in 2014 Pro Bowler Matthew Stafford at quarterback and solid weapons like Golden Tate, Ameer Abdullah and Eric Ebron, and this should be a high-scoring offense. 

Instead, they've failed to reach the 18-point mark in four consecutive games and are the only team in football to score 17 or fewer points that many times this season. They've already turned the ball over 15 times, while nobody else in football has done so more than 12. 

Rank	Most games with 17 or fewer points	Most turnovers through 5 weeks
1	Detroit Lions (4)	Detroit Lions (15)
2	Jacksonville Jaguars (3)	Indianapolis Colts (12)
3	Miami Dolphins (3)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10)
4	St. Louis Rams (3)	New Orleans Saints (10)
5	Indianapolis Colts (3)	Philadelphia Eagles (10)

It just isn't clicking.

And when an offense's failure to click is the primary reason why a team that has been mediocre at best for the better part of a century is once again in a football gutter, that team's tortured fanbase deserves a proactive attitude regarding change. 

Ideally, that would mean benching Stafford, who is supposed to be in his prime with a stud receiving corps but instead leads the NFL with eight interceptions and ranks dead last among 18 quarterbacks who have started five games with a passer rating of 74.8. He's averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt and has completed just three passes that have traveled 20-plus yards. 

And this isn't some five-game aberration, because since the start of 2011, the 27-year-old has thrown 72 interceptions, which is the second-highest total in football (two short of Eli Manning). Among the 20 quarterbacks who have started at least 50 games during that span, he ranks 15th with a passer rating of 85.8. 

Category	Total	Ranking
Completion %	64.6	17th
Touchdowns	6	16th
Interceptions	8	Last
Yards/attempt	6.2	34th
Passer rating	74.8	33rd

With guys like Johnson and Tate and Ebron to throw to, that's unacceptable. 

It all makes it easy to understand why Stafford was benched during Sunday's three-interception performance in a blowout loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but the problem is that the Lions don't have a quarterback on the roster who can bring hope to the offense.

Dan Orlovsky, who is best known for taking a silly safety and has lost 10 of 12 career starts, is the only other option. The 32-year-old replaced Stafford Sunday but isn't a viable starting candidate going forward, and they have nobody else waiting in the wings. 

The Lions aren't coming back from 0-5, especially in the NFC, which is why they might be better off calling this a lost season and using a high draft pick on a pivot who might be capable of actually pushing Stafford, who signed a big contract extension two years ago but can be released at a reasonable cost ($11 million, per Spotrac) after the 2015 season. 

We now have a large enough sample size on Stafford (82 starts over a seven-season stretch) to know that he isn't going to be a Tom Brady or a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees or an Aaron Rodgers. If he were a great quarterback, he would have begun to make his mark by now, especially with Johnson at his disposal. Instead, Stafford is now 3-37 in his career against teams that finished the season with a winning record, and he and Johnson appear to be losing chemistry. 

"You would think that two guys that have played together this long would have better chemistry," said Fox color man Moose Johnston after Stafford threw a pick on a pass intended for Johnson Sunday.

He's not the first viewer to make that statement, and he won't be the last. 

Franchise	Drought	Last won
Cardinals	67 years	1947
Lions	57 years	1957
Eagles	54 years	1960
Titans	53 years	1961
Chargers	51 years	1963

But it's not all on Stafford, because head coach Jim Caldwell has already shown that he doesn't deserve a third season in Detroit. He's an offensive-minded coach with a history of training quarterbacks and receivers in particular, and yet he's getting nothing done with Stafford and Johnson. 

It doesn't help that the seemingly predictable and bland offensive scheme he and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi have in place has been exploited badly by opposing defenses, with several opponents admitting it's been easy pickins. 

Caldwell—who might be the worst head coach in football when it comes to game management—was in the right place at the right time when he inherited the superpower Indianapolis Colts from the retiring Tony Dungy in 2009, and the Colts regressed after that Super Bowl season. This will almost surely mark his fourth straight season without a playoff win.

So if the Lions are going to make a statement with sweeping changes, they should forget about Caldwell. 

Current general manager Martin Mayhew may not have been in Detroit when the Lions managed to win just a single playoff game during Sanders' 10-year career between 1989 and 1998, but his bosses in the Ford family were, and there's little doubt the franchise fears squandering another long stretch in which it has an all-time great on offense.

Category	Total
Record	125-168
Playoff appearances	7
Playoff wins	1

But Johnson is still only 30, NFL-ready rookie quarterbacks are easier to find than ever and this age of parity makes it possible to rebuild overnight.

If the Lions stubbornly stick with the status quo, they'll almost certainly continue to flash moments of brilliance while falling short of expectations on an annual basis. But if they rip the Band-Aid off immediately by replacing Stafford and Caldwell in 2015, they might still have a chance to reload in order to make a more practical run at their first championship in 60-odd years. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon