Everything You Need to Know About the Memphis Grizzlies' 2015-16 NBA Season
While the NBA transforms around them, the Memphis Grizzlies refuse to budge from their time-tested approach.
Bucking contemporary trends could be seen as either savvy or stubborn, but there's a clear reward for Memphis' methods. The league's grit-and-grind kings have also been one of its most consistent outfits, booking five straight playoff trips and celebrating four series victories during this stretch.
Bullies of basketball's big leagues, the Grizzlies try to smash opponents into submission. Their occasional offensive lapses have so far stopped them from reaching the championship stage, but they challenged the Golden State Warriors as much as anyone during their six-game second-round battle.
Memphis believes in its seemingly outdated style and doubled down on the strategy by locking up All-Star center Marc Gasol on a five-year, $110 million contract early in free agency. The Grizzlies spent the rest of their summer preparing for yet another grueling trip into the mud.
Key Additions/Subtractions
Additions: Brandan Wright (free agent), Matt Barnes (trade), Jarell Martin (draft)
Subtractions: Kosta Koufos (free agent), Jon Leuer (trade), Nick Calathes (overseas)
Already rubbing elbows with the NBA's elite, the Grizzlies opted for minor (but effective) tweaks over significant changes. They'll miss Kosta Koufos' consistency and might one day regret giving up Jon Leuer if he finds his footing as a stretch 4, but the final offseason tally has Memphis coming out ahead—even if rookie Jarell Martin, the 25th pick, doesn't crack the rotation.
Brandan Wright should fit snugly behind both Gasol and Zach Randolph. Wright isn't the most skilled player on this frontcourt but adds a different dimension with his 7'4" wingspan and explosive athleticism. He should live above the rim as a pick-and-roll finisher and intimidating rim protector.
Speaking of intimidating, Matt Barnes adds another layer of nasty to this perimeter defense. His toughness and physicality will make the Grizzlies even less fun to play against, while his streaky three-point shot (career 33.8 percent) will help space the floor when it's falling.
Storylines to Watch
Most identities are built to last in the NBA. It's a copycat league in which most teams try to mimic the top teams and make their systems look more like those that win on a high level. Lately, that's meant embracing fast pace and valuing the three-point shot more than ever.
The Grizzlies don't do either. They operate at controlled speeds. If Mike Conley can't find a crease in the defense, Memphis asks Gasol and Randolph to create something underneath. There's something to appreciate about the Grizzlies' running what works for them even if clashes with public opinion.
At the same time, it's fair to question whether this defense-first, inside-out style of play can succeed in today's NBA. Yes, the Grizzlies have emerged as a thorn in the side of every Western Conference contender. But they've also failed to escape their side of the bracket, perishing by way of a choppy offense that lacks proper spacing, accurate shooting and consistent scoring.
"The roster's fatal flaws haven't changed much—not enough shooting, either up front or on the wings, to punish opponents who pack the paint to stifle Z-Bo and Gasol and cut off Conley's penetration," wrote Yahoo Sports' Dan Devine. "... What makes the Grizzlies who they are also makes them vulnerable."
Memphis is running out of time to orchestrate a title run. Randolph is 34, Gasol turns 31 in January and Conley is 28. If this core has a championship window, this is it. With essentially all of its potential dependent on internal growth, the Grizzlies will likely need the best seasons to date from Gasol and Conley to make that treacherous leap from really good to great.
X-Factor: Jeff Green
Jeff Green looks like the perfect spark for this offense. He's long and athletic, comfortable shooting from range or attacking the basket and capable of creating his own shots or finding them for others. He's a scoring surge waiting to happen and can pile up production from either forward spot.
But he's also a 29-year-old with the unpredictability of an unpolished prospect. After arriving in a three-team January trade, he made 45 regular-season appearances for the Grizzlies. He cracked the 20-point barrier four times and failed to reach double digits in nine other games. Memphis fared 9.8 points better per 100 possessions better without him, and that's before he shot a woeful 33.3 percent during the playoffs.
The idea of what Green could be still looms as a possible solution for many of this club's offensive ills. But he'll have to leave a better impression this time around, a task which might be simplified by having a full offseason and training camp to find his place.
"He's way more comfortable, and you can tell," Randolph said of Green, via Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal. "That's what we want, because we need him. How he plays is going to be big."
Making the Leap: Jordan Adams
Head coach Dave Joerger's rotation has been almost impossible for young players to crack, but 21-year-old Jordan Adams could be the exception. After seldom seeing the floor during his rookie season (30 games, 8.3 minutes per appearance), his two-way potential could help him leapfrog the aging, erratic players currently in front of him.
Courtney Lee is by far Memphis' best option at the 2, which doesn't say much for his positional peers when he shot just 39.6 percent from the field (31.6 from deep) after the All-Star break. But Vince Carter is a shooting specialist who posted a .333/.297 slash line last season. Tony Allen is a terrific defender, but he's not an offensive threat away from the basket. Barnes works best at the forward spots.
There should be floor time available for Adams, who underwent minor knee surgery in August. He needs to grow as both as an outside shooter and perimeter defender but has a solid foundation to build on. As hard as it might be for Joerger to deploy young players while jostling for playoff position, Adams might have less fluctuation than the elder statesmen around him.
Best-Case Scenario
The Grizzlies have the pieces to build a potent offense, and all of them mesh like never before. Aggressiveness helps Conley find his 2013-14 scoring form (17.2 points per game), which leads Gasol back to last season's early success (19.8 points over his first 25 outings). Lee buries triples at a 40-percent clip for the entire year, and Green figures out how to be a steady supportive scorer.
Good fortune, a key part of any title run, finally makes its way to Memphis. Injuries tear down a few would-be challengers for the Western Conference crown, while others are pitted against one another in the opening round. The Grizzlies follow their muddy footprints back to the Western Conference Finals, and their unconventionally efficient offense powers them to their first appearance on the championship stage.
Worst-Case Scenario
The offense sputters even more often than normal. The Grizzlies don't have a first or second option; everyone scores like a No. 3—or worse. Conley and Gasol are too passive to notice the green lights in front of them. Randolph, Carter and Barnes all show their age. Allen proves unplayable with his offensive deficiencies, and none of the youngsters provide consistent production.
Memphis defends well enough to snag one of the final playoff berths but tips off the second season on the road and against a superior team. The Grizzlies are dispatched before they can leave more than a few bruises on their opponents, then head into the summer with questions of how to keep Conley and cut some past-their-prime players.
Predictions
Hoop heads have seen this movie before. Some of the details have changed—more shots for Conley and Lee, less for Randolph; a small but important push to add youth to the reserve unit—but the end result should be the same.
"The Grizzlies remain relatively unchanged, from both a personnel and style standpoint," wrote NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "They're fine with that. They'd rather stay true to themselves and hope to be in position once again to scare the next NBA champion in the playoffs. That champion is unlikely to be Memphis, but the Grizzlies will be scary."
With Conley, Lee and Green all entering contract years, the Grizzlies should pack more of a perimeter punch than normal. But Father Time has threatened both Randolph and Allen with regression. The prospects won't have the opportunity to make a splash, and the supporting vets won't distinguish themselves for good or bad reasons.
Playing in the Southwest Division (which should easily be the league's best) won't spoil the Grizzlies' run of 50-win seasons but will keep them from finishing higher than sixth out West. They'll leave their fingerprints on their opening-round opponents, but Memphis won't have the top-tier talent to advance any further than that.
Final Record: 52-30
Division Standing: Third in Southwest
Playoff Berth: Yes
Playoff Finish: Eliminated in First Round
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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