Texans vs. Jaguars: Full Houston Week 6 Preview
The term "rock bottom" was thrown around on Twitter after the Houston Texans' humiliating loss to a recently hospitalized 40-year-old quarterback last week, but whether or not they've reached that point is meaningless.
As a phrase, it means a point so low that one can't sink any further, but if their 14-game losing streak to end the 2013 season taught us anything, it's that the Texans are always capable of sinking lower.
The Texans 1-4 record has justifiably put them in the conversation for worst team in the league, but their next three games are against opponents who have a combined record of 3-10.
That wasn't said to sell false hope, but their schedule does provide them with a decent shot of reaching 4-4 going into the bye week.
Now a third of the way through their 14th season as a franchise, the Texans have defeated—in order—the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins more than any other franchises in the NFL; they're a perfect 7-0 against Miami all-time.
By some coincidence, the Texans' next three opponents happen to be the Jaguars, Dolphins and Titans. Two of those games will be on the road, but if they're going to turn the 2015 season around, this is their chance.
So what would it take to make the "rock bottom" statement about this team?
If the Texans lose two out of these next three games or worse, then lose at home to a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led New York Jets team—with a nearly guaranteed loss at Cincinnati sandwiched in between—then we'll be ready to characterize the season with any negative term we can think up.
Week 5 Results and Recap
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Pessimistic fans were probably wondering how the Texans would blow their Week 5 game against Indianapolis, despite being at home and without Andrew Luck on the field.
Well, the answer came from a very familiar name: former Texans great Andre Johnson.
The newspaper and blog headlines wrote themselves—"Beat by Dre"—as Johnson posted the best numbers of his season, which had been very disappointing up to that point.
In total, the future Hall of Famer caught six passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers wouldn't be considered amazing in a vacuum, but put up against his combined total of seven receptions for 51 yards over the Colts' first four games, that performance looks pretty damn good.
Many probably expected a motivated Johnson to come back and play well against his former team, but in what turned out to be a very discouraging night for the defense, the Texans also allowed a couple of other veterans to post better-than-expected numbers.
Frank Gore also got off to a slow start this season with three rushing totals under 55 yards over his first four games but found the Fountain of Youth against the Texans with a season-high 98 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 22 carries.
Watching the Texans' once-heralded defense give up plays to those two players was one thing, but the coup de grace had to be the performance of 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck.
After spending a couple days leading up to the game in a hospital, Hasselbeck took the field and embarrassed the Texans on national TV with a nearly flawless performance.
Hasselbeck earned a 107.4 quarterback rating for completing 62 percent of his passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions against Houston.
The last time Hasselbeck hit the marks of at least 200 yards passing, two touchdowns or more, no interceptions, on 60 percent completion or better and with a quarterback rating north of 100, was all the way back in January of 2012—last game of the 2011 season—as a member of the Tennessee Titans.
Want to take a guess who Hasselbeck's opponents were that day?
Of course it was the Houston Texans.
The Texans didn't have much to play for with little chance of earning a bye, so nothing should be taken from that game to end the 2011 season, but as a long-suffering fan of Houston sports, I just had a, "Of course it was them" moment when finding out the Texans were the last team against which he performed at that level.
Getting back to this season, forget Bill O'Brien juggling quarterbacks, the struggling run game or even the poor health of the offensive line for a moment, because none of that is a surprise.
Most people expected the Texans offense to struggle, maybe not this much, but it was clearly the more flawed side of the ball coming into the season.
Their defense on the other hand was, on paper, supposed to be one of the best in the league alongside those of teams like the Seattle Seahawks.
Through their first five games, they've been anything but great, with ranks of 24th in points allowed per game, 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 29th in sacks and 32nd in takeaways.
For the season, the Texans have a grand total of six sacks and just two takeaways; that's pitiful.
To make matters more depressing, of the 13 defensive players who played 30 snaps or more against the Colts last week—about 50 percent of the game—eight of those players were selected in the first round, while two others were selected in the second round of the draft.
Two of the remaining three players from that group were selected in the fourth round.
Not all of those players were selected by the Texans, obviously, but the team has still invested extremely heavily in the defense with nothing to show for it this season.
If the coaches can't get better results out of that group, then changes to the staff have to be made.
News and Notes
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Brian Hoyer Named The Starting Quarterback
During a rare moment of decisiveness, Bill O'Brien named veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer the starter for this week's game, just one day after the loss to Indianapolis.
"Bill O'Brien, no longer delaying the inevitable, names Brian Hoyer his starting QB for Week 6
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) October 9, 2015"
Many of us are getting tired of the quarterback carousel, but neither quarterback is going to lead the Texans to the playoffs, so while annoying, the weekly flip-flopping means little in terms of the Texans' success or failure.
Beyond the numbers against Indianapolis, which were favorable to Hoyer in comparison to Ryan Mallett, the offense just ran better with the veteran under center.
Hoyer, of course, ended the Texans' attempt at a comeback with a very "Hoyer-like" interception, but for the majority of the game his decisions with the football were both quicker and smarter than Mallett.
To a degree we're splitting hairs here, because neither should even be considered to start next season, but from what we've seen through five games, it was the right decision to name Hoyer the starter.
Until Coach O'Brien wakes up tomorrow and changes his mind again.
Blake Bortles On Track To Start
On the opposite sidelines from the Texans' journeymen quarterbacks on Sunday, will be last year's third-overall pick, Blake Bortles.
The question of whether or not he would play seemed to be up in the air earlier this week, but Bortles was a full participant in the Jaguars' Wednesday practice, so it seems likely that he'll play, unless there is a setback with his shoulder injury.
"Blake Bortles was full participation for Jaguars today, has a right throwing shoulder injury
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 14, 2015"
Had Bortles not been cleared to play, the Jaguars would have turned to veteran backup Chad Henne.
The news of a backup quarterback being inserted into the lineup is usually met with cheers by the opposing fanbase, but unlike Bortles, Henne has had recent success against the Texans.
After Jaguars starter Blaine Gabbert left their November matchup during the 2012 season with an injury, Henne torched the Texans defense to the tune of 354 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 126.8 quarterback rating in a 43-37 overtime loss.
Not only were those four touchdowns a career high for Henne, but he's never even had another game with three touchdown passes. His total passing yards and quarterback rating for that game were the third- and second-best of his career, respectively.
By comparison, in two games against the Texans last season, Bortles completed just 47 percent of his passes—his lowest mark against any opponent—and averaged 161 passing yards per game—his second-lowest total against any opponent—during two losses in which the Jaguars scored a combined 30 points.
Neither quarterback should be a problem for the Texans defense, but of course, many said that same thing about Alex Smith and Matt Hasselbeck, so it seems like we'll have to expect the worst.
Latest Injury News
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| Carlos Thompson | Wrist | Injured Reserve |
| Jeff Adams | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Tom Savage | Shoulder | Injured Reserve |
| David Quessenberry | Illness | Injured Reserve |
| Reshard Cliett | Knee | Injured Reserve |
| Ryan Griffin | Knee | IR/DFR |
| Akeem Dent | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Nate Washington | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Ankle | Questionable |
| Jonathan Grimes | Knee | Questionable |
| Quintin Demps | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Cecil Shorts | Shoulder | Questionable |
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
".@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (10/14): pic.twitter.com/7Ul1Msbtjc
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) October 14, 2015"
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Key Matchups
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Size of the Jaguars Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns of the Jaguars are both 6'3'', which could cause problems for the Texans' top corners, who are all under 6'0".
Johnathan Joseph had a big game against Tampa Bay in Week 3 with five passes defensed against the Buccaneers' pair of 6'5'' receivers, but quarterback Jameis Winston did find some success just throwing up jump balls to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.
Whenever the Texans left a corner in single, one-on-one coverage, he struggled to battle with the tall receivers downfield in jump-ball situations, with the bigger player using his size to come down with the ball.
In the second half, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel started helping out his corners by allowing them to play over the top of Evans and Jackson, with either a linebacker or safety dropping underneath the receiver and shadowing the route.
That strategy of making Winston choose between a tough throw or holding the ball for too long while looking for other targets was successful in Week 3 and could bring similar results against Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville receivers.
Stopping T.J. Yeldon
The rookie running back looked close to breaking out during his first three games, but the Jaguars fell behind in two of those contests and started to lean on the pass.
T.J. Yeldon got his breakout game in Week 4 with 105 rushing yards on 4.77 yards per carry during a losing effort to the Indianapolis Colts.
On paper, the Texans run defense looked like it should be pretty good before the season started, but over the last two weeks they've allowed big games to both Devonta Freeman and Frank Gore.
With the exception of a few big runs by Cam Newton in Week 2, the Texans stopped the run pretty well over the first three weeks of the season, but they have been pushed around and physically dominated over the last two games.
Every team wants to stop the run, but taking away their ground game and forcing the Jaguars to pass with a mistake-prone quarterback like Bortles is a must for the Texans defense this week.
Texans X-Factor of the Week
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We could argue about matchups and things like that, but DeAndre Hopkins is easily the Texans' best offensive player at this point, and they'll need a big game from him every week to have a chance to win.
Through five games this season, Hopkins is averaging eight receptions and 115 receiving yards per game with three total touchdowns. On that pace, Hopkins would finish the season with 134 receptions, 1,849 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, breaking every one of Andre Johnson's team records.
Saying they need a big game from Hopkins doesn't tell the whole story. He's had several big statistical games this year, but the bulk of his numbers have come during the second half, when the Texans were already down big and the opposing defense had relaxed its coverage.
His splits look like this:
| Game Situation | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
| First Half | 16 | 201 |
| Second Half | 26 | 378 |
His splits between when the Texans are leading or tied and when they're trailing paint an even clearer picture:
| Game Situation | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
| Leading or Tied | 11 | 135 |
| Trailing | 31 | 444 |
In only his third season as a pro, Hopkins already looks like a true No. 1 option. Even if he doesn't hit those "on pace" numbers mentioned above, he should still get to statistical levels in Year 3 that Johnson took six seasons to reach.
However, we can wonder whether his great numbers this year would be the same if he faced tighter coverage during close games more often, instead of prevent formations with the opponent frequently up by multiple possessions.
Regardless, Hopkins has to get himself open more often when the game is still being decided.
Outside of the game against Tampa Bay in Week 3, the defense hasn't done enough to win games for the team on its own, so the Texans will need more from Hopkins earlier in games to help keep up.
Prediction: Texans 20, Jaguars 17
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This statement is definitely open to fair criticism, but the Houston Texans are a better football team than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars do have a pair of wide receivers and a rookie running back capable of causing any NFL defense headaches, but most of their roster isn't much cause for concern.
Specifically, if the Texans offense can't "get right" against the Jaguars defense, then it may be time to start thinking about who they should take with the No. 1 pick next year.
Through five games, the Jaguars rank 31st in points allowed per game, 25th in opponents quarterback rating, 25th in rushing touchdowns allowed, 32nd in opponents' third down conversion percentage at 50 percent and are last in the league in interceptions with just one for the entire season.
Blake Bortles has improved from Year 1 to Year 2—at least statistically—but the Jaguars defense is porous enough to keep the Texans in this game and give them a chance to pull off a win late.
Prediction: Texans 20, Jaguars 17
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
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