A Progress Report on Arsenal Heading into October International Break

Arsenal fans could be forgiven for being confused about their team's prospects at the outset of the October international break.

Although they went out on a real high with a convincing win over Manchester United, it has not all been plain sailing of late. In the month of September, they lost as many games as they won. It’s clear this is an Arsenal team with huge potential but lacking in consistency. 

There seems to be a clear distinction in the quality of their performances in the two major competitions of the Premier League and Champions League.

While their domestic form has recovered from that opening-day blip against West Ham United, they are enduring a torrid time in Europe. Defeats against Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiakos have left them staring down the barrel of a group-stage exit for the first time in almost two decades.

It’s difficult to ascertain exactly why Arsenal are struggling so much in Europe. It’s possible that the Gunners, and Arsene Wenger in particular, aren’t taking their continental opposition as seriously as they might.

That much has been evident in the team selection. Wenger made six changes for the trip to Zagreb and was punished with a 2-1 defeat.

When Olympiakos came to the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal were desperate for a win. However, Wenger still chose to field the likes of David Ospina and Kieran Gibbs ahead of regulars like Petr Cech and Nacho Monreal. An Ospina howler contributed to a humiliating 3-2 loss, leaving Arsenal on the brink of a Champions League exit.

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

The decision to omit Cech was particularly baffling. When the veteran goalkeeper left Chelsea this summer, he surely did so in part because of the lure of the Champions League football. However, Cech has not played in either of Arsenal’s group-stage games to date.

Perhaps Wenger planned to introduce him at the knockout stages—if so, that plan looks hilariously hubristic. Arsenal may well not make it that far. 

Ospina played against Spurs in the Capital One Cup and performed well in a 2-1 victory. However, there is a big difference between the Champions League and the League Cup. It’s long been clear the latter is a competition used to give game-time to fringe players and experience to promising youngsters.

The European Cup is one of the two trophies Arsenal mark out each season as a priority. It is no time to experiment. Wenger has learnt that lesson the hard way.

Julian Finney/Getty Images

However, he is infamously stubborn. Unsurprisingly, Wenger has sought to find another excuse for Arsenal’s European struggles. Per Jonathan Green of the Daily Star, he said:

"

I believe that what has changed is we play against teams in Europe that accept the superiority of English teams and just defend and try to catch the on the break. 

It happens in football that you can lose games like that. It’s a bit like when you play a cup game against a Championship team.

You can lose because they accept at the start that you will have the ball and they try just to defend well and get you on the counter attack.

That’s what happened to us.

"

Comparing a Champions League tie to “a cup game against a Championship team” only underlines the manner in which Wenger is underestimating European opposition. Arsenal seem to expect to steamroller their way through the group stage, which is patently unrealistic.

There is room for improvement in tactical preparation, defensive discipline and attacking intent—but team selection would be a start. Surely Ospina will find himself back on the bench for the forthcoming double-header with Bayern Munich.

However, from a purely tactical point of view, Wenger may be on to something. It’s certainly true that Arsenal’s best performances of late have been against teams who are prepared to come out and attack them. 

Take Arsenal’s Premier League form by way of example. The Gunners’ last two showings in the league have been their most impressive of the season so far.

Arsenal fans would doubtless like to believe that’s because their team has clicked into gear and found their form. However, it may have as much to do with the strategic approach of their opposition.

Both Leicester City and Manchester United showed a willingness to seize the initiative and take the game to Arsenal. That played directly into the hands of an Arsenal team who seem to be evolving a new style of play.

Since the introduction of Theo Walcott ahead of Olivier Giroud’s as centre-forward, the Gunners have begun to develop into a side who capitalise on turnovers in play with rapier counter-attacks. 

Michael Regan/Getty Images

Walcott’s evolution into the team’s focal point has been one of the most fascinating aspects of Arsenal’s start to the season.

In the summer, Wenger chose to extend Walcott’s contract rather than gamble on a new signing. He clearly felt that Walcott’s attributes had the makings of a dangerous striker, and the last few weeks suggest that hunch may have been right. 

With the England international as their spearhead, Arsenal suddenly have a more varied threat than when Giroud was deployed as No. 9. Walcott can run in behind, interchange positions with Alexis Sanchez, and has even shown signs that he can use his improved upper-body strength to hold the ball up and bring others into play.

When Arsenal do create chances, they are being more efficient in taking them. That was key to the stirring victory over United—Arsenal have started games at a good tempo before, only to undo themselves by missing key opportunities to take the lead. Against Louis van Gaal’s men, they were utterly ruthless. 

Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

That killer instinct in front of goal is exemplified in the upturn in performances of Alexis. The Chilean went the first eight games of the season without scoring, but he has now notched six times in his last three appearances.

He has now scored as many goals in his last two Premier League matches as he did in the previous 21.

If Arsenal are to mount a serious title challenge—and sitting in second position, that still ought to be their aim—his form will be key. Although the wins over Leicester and United showcased cohesive team performances, most title-winning sides require a sprinkling of individual quality. Alexis is undoubtedly the man to provide that. 

As for their travails on their European travels, Wenger will have to hope the United win will inspire his team to produce similar performances against Bayern. However, should Arsenal fail to progress, it may not be the disaster it initially seems.

With the table opening up in the Premier League, the opportunity to focus on domestic matters may actually end up being to Arsenal’s benefit.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and is following the club from a London base throughout 2015/16. Follow him on Twitter here.