New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots return from their bye week to visit the Dallas Cowboys in what the NFL thought would be a more intriguing matchup. The Patriots will be facing the Cowboys without quarterback Tony Romo, but the defending Super Bowl champions are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their past six games following a bye.

Point spread: Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.1-18.3 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has picked up where it left off last year so far this season and is fortunate to be playing an 0-2 Dallas team under backup quarterback Brandon Weeden than the 2-0 squad with Romo. Weeden has not taken many chances downfield in running a more conservative offense, and that will not work against the Patriots, who will likely try to run up the score and dare the Cowboys to keep pace like the Atlanta Falcons did.

Besides Romo, Dallas is also missing key players including wide receiver Dez Bryant (foot), linebacker Sean Lee (concussion) and running back Lance Dunbar (knee), who led the team in rushing during a 26-20 overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Dunbar is out for the season with a torn ACL, so Weeden will be lacking his safety valve out of the backfield, which hurts the offense even more.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys still have a solid defense with or without Lee and can pressure New England quarterback Tom Brady into some mistakes. While Brady has been perfect so far this season with no interceptions and nine touchdowns, the week off may impact his rhythm and prevent him from looking as sharp as he was before the bye.

The Patriots defense has also not really been tested by a good offense since the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who played that one without running back Le’Veon Bell. Dallas does have some offensive weapons who are healthy and can make plays such as wide receiver Terrance Williams and running back Joseph Randle; it’s just a matter of whether or not Weeden can make strides with his play under center.

Smart pick

It’s hard to go against New England in this spot considering how well the team was playing heading into its bye. The Cowboys are not nearly as confident offensively with Weeden, and it shows with the play-calling. If they get to be double-digit home underdogs, then maybe they are worth a look. But the Patriots have done nothing so far to disappoint their backers outside of allowing a last-second touchdown pass to the Steelers in the season opener, which made that game result in a push.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in six of the Patriots’ seven games against the Cowboys since 1984.

The Patriots are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games after the bye.

The Cowboys are 10-3 straight up in their 13 games before the bye at home since 1990.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.