Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Odds, Football Pick

Notre Dame once beat Navy 43 times in a row and owns a four-game winning streak in the series, but the Midshipmen have had their moments recently against the Irish, winning three of the last eight meetings straight up and going 5-3 against the spread in the process. Navy shoots for another upset of Notre Dame Saturday afternoon in South Bend.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 16-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 42.5-22.0 Fighting Irish

Why the Navy Midshipmen can cover the spread

Navy is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread this season, after knocking off Air Force last week 33-11 and covering as a five-point home favorite. The Mids led 27-0 before allowing the Falcons to hit the board late in the third quarter, and on the day they outgained Air Force 387-277, held the ball for almost 33 minutes and won the turnover battle 4-0.

So on the season Navy has covered 27 points over Colgate, five points over East Carolina and seven points at Connecticut, outgaining and outrushing each of them.

Last year the Mids trailed Notre Dame 28-7, rallied to take a 31-28 lead and eventually lost 49-39, but they covered as two-touchdown underdogs. And two seasons ago Navy led the Irish 34-31 with eight minutes left, before falling 38-34 but covering as a 16-point underdog. With senior Keenan Reynolds running that flex-bone option, the Midshipmen are a dangerous outfit.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

After starting 4-0 this season with three covers, the Irish just suffered their first defeat, a 24-22 decision at Clemson. Notre Dame trailed 21-3 into the fourth quarter and rallied to within a two-point conversion on a touchdown with seven seconds left, but the Irish came up short. However, they did smile upon their financial backers, picking up the backdoor cover as three-point road dogs.

Notre Dame outgained the Tigers 437-296 but committed four turnovers on a wet night at Death Valley.

Prior to that the Irish had won their first four games, averaging 41 points per game, even after having to go with a redshirt freshman, DeShone Kizer, at quarterback. Notre Dame is after big game this season and knows another loss would likely kill its chances of making the College Football Playoff.

Smart pick

The Irish may very well win this game, but Navy has run for more than 300 yards in each of the last two meetings, keeping both games close. The smart money here sides with the Midshipmen.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in Navy's last five games against Notre Dame.

Navy is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games on the road.

Notre Dame is 5-1 straight up and against the spread in its last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.