A Progress Report on Manchester United Heading into October International Break
Before Manchester United's defeat to Arsenal on Sunday, things were looking pretty rosy for the Red Devils. Any progress report written before then would have warned of tougher tests ahead, certainly, but an optimistic prognosis would have been valid given United were top of the league for the first time since 19 August, 2013.
David Moyes' side won their opening-day fixture against Swansea City 4-1, and held on to that top spot until Manchester City beat Newcastle 4-0 two days later.
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It was not until City lost to Tottenham Hotspur at lunchtime on 26 September this year and United then beat Sunderland that the red half of Manchester enjoyed that familiar top spot again.
That enjoyment was short lived. A week later, a 20-minute collapse left them three down against Arsenal. The tactics looked shoddy. Some bad individual performances gave the home side the freedom of the Emirates Stadium, and the fired-up Gunners took full advantage.
Of course, that 20 minutes—United's worst of the season by a long chalk—takes the shine off the progress report, but does one defeat, albeit a heavy and decisive one, mean United are back to square one?
Surely it does not. United are currently third in the league with eight games played. Crucially, they are only two points behind City, meaning their start is vastly improved over this time last season. After eight games played then, United were sixth, 10 points behind Chelsea.
Some of that gap is because City now have fewer points than Chelsea did then, but United are still five points better off than they were at this stage 12 months ago.
The key improvement has come in the difference in goals conceded—eight in eight games compared to 12 last time around. They have actually scored fewer goals this time, 12 compared to 15 in 2014.
Those numbers, of course, are only like-for-like in a temporal sense. The points and goals for and against were earned against different teams. However, it is very clear that even with the Arsenal game taken into account, Louis van Gaal has had a much better start to the season than he did last time around.
The narrative of United's season so far can be split into three chapters—which neatly coincide with the calendar.
First off came August—a stuttering start. United looked solid at the back, conceding just once—in the Champions League preliminary against Club Brugge—until they faced Swansea City at the Liberty Stadium, where the home side's attack got the better of United's experimental centre-half pairing of Chris Smalling and Daley Blind.
In spite of that defensive lapse the real problem was that United could hardly buy a goal. Yes, they scored seven in two legs against the Belgians, but Brugge were riddled with injuries and, for context, currently sit fifth in the Jupiler Pro League.
Against domestic competition, United looked ponderous and predictable up front.
Many hopes had been pinned on Wayne Rooney playing at No. 9, but bar the barrage of goals against Brugge, the United captain looked like he would be lucky to get 10 league goals for the season, let alone 25 or 30.
Apart from the Swansea game, though, the defence did a sterling job, protecting Sergio Romero from being exposed, for the most part.
Playing Blind at centre-back attracted plenty of questions. Before Swansea, he had been the surprise hit of the season, and United's entire back four—Matteo Darmian, Smalling, Blind and Luke Shaw—looked a very solid platform to build on.
Now, with two months gone in the season, Blind has consistently done very well against weaker sides. He has been excellent when United have had the ball, but has been repeatedly exposed against better attacks.
Smalling has been United's most-improved player, attracting praise from his manager and football writers such as JJ Bull of the Telegraph. And United fans have taken to singing, "There's only one Mike Smalling" in reference to his manager's summer faux pas, per Mail Online.
Darmian started very strongly, but has dipped in recent weeks, twice facing the ignominy of being replaced at half-time by Antonio Valencia.
Shaw, of course, suffered a broken leg against PSV Eindhoven. The joy of United's return to the Champions League was hugely overshadowed by this event.
Van Gaal had said it was to be "the Season of Shaw," per the Mirror, and so it was proving. He was in superb form, a threat during attacks and rock solid at the back. His injury was the worst thing to befall United in the campaign so far.
In goal, Romero started brightly against Tottenham Hotspur as David De Gea was excluded pending a resolution to his transfer saga. However, against Swansea, De Gea was much missed.
The start of the second chapter of the season so far came with the end of the transfer window and a remarkable last 36 hours.
There were far more outgoings than anyone foresaw—most surprising of all being the loan to Borussia Dortmund of Adnan Januzaj who had been Van Gaal's go-to No. 10 for much of the season so far.
There was also some surprise as Javier Hernandez was sold—not shocking on its own merits, but a real surprise given that United had allowed Radamel Falcao to leave and had sold Robin van Persie to Fenerbahce.
Would Van Gaal really be heading into the season with Rooney and James Wilson as his only recognised centre-forwards?
The answer was, of course, no. Transfer deadline day arrived, as did Anthony Martial—more on him later.
Also on deadline day came the remarkable shenanigans surrounding De Gea's attempted transfer to Real Madrid. Someone, somewhere, got something badly wrong and United hung on to their coveted goalkeeper.
A shiny new four-year contract later, and De Gea pulled off the save of the season against Southampton.
That came during the second chapter of the season—September. With it, United turned into a free-scoring side who swept all before them—sort of.
The Champions League got off to a bumpy start, but by the end of the month the Red Devils had rectified their poor opening to the group by rectifying their poor start to the game against Wolfsburg.
Domestically, though, their attack was transformed by the arrival of Martial. The loss to Arsenal on Sunday was the first since his arrival where the side did not score three goals.
As much of an unknown quantity as it is possible to be when arriving from a side who featured in last season's Champions League, Martial has been the stand-out success of the season so far.
The 19-year-old has scored plenty of goals, provided an assist, and almost as importantly, played well even when he hasn't been scoring. Even against Arsenal he was a bright spot.
Juan Mata also enjoyed an excellent September, with three goals and three assists in the calendar month.
Until Arsenal, it was all pretty much working for United, albeit they needed to turn things around against Southampton and Wolfburg, and were hanging on for the win by the end of both of those matches.
The Arsenal game is the only one played in October so far, and is the short third chapter to the season. The rest of the month will see United travel to Everton, Crystal Palace and CSKA Moscow, and take on Manchester City at home.
Will the Arsenal game prove to be a blip or is it a reflection of where the squad is at at the moment? Are United able to deal with lesser challenges with relative ease, but not ready for the big ones?
Or were Arsenal just on form at the exact moment United were not?
Plenty of United's most-important players were poor in that game. Darmian was beaten all ends up by Alexis Sanchez, Bastian Schweinsteiger was drawn into pressing high leaving too much space to cover and Michael Carrick was unable to cope with the amount of space he was left covering, and perhaps starting to feel his 34 years.
Then there was Rooney, whose progress report for the season as a whole would be a story in itself, but not a pleasant one.
So, three chapters, each telling a very different story. First defensively solid, then impressive in attack and finally a total collapse. That is the progress report for the season so far.
United fans will hope chapters one and two tell the story of the season ahead, and that the third is a stand-alone moment of darkness, written to add shade and dramatic tension during a successful campaign.
Just at this moment, though, that looks a little optimistic. With a thin squad, reliant on a couple of key players to perform, the top spot which United briefly occupied looks a little out of reach. However, there has clearly been progress made over last season, which is the key target for this season.
The rest of October will give some indication of just how far there is left to go.
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