Packers Dominant in Many Areas, but Still Need Improvement on 3rd Down

After Week 4 of the 2015 season, the Green Bay Packers have one of the league's top offenses.

At No. 8 in total offense and No. 5 in scoring offense, Green Bay has outscored its opponents 113-71 and has gone 64.7 percent in the red zone, per TeamRankings.com. 

However, for as dominant as Green Bay's offense has been through the first quarter of the season, there's one area in which it could stand to improve: third-down conversion percentage. 

On the year, the Packers have gone 19-of-47 on third downs, for a conversion rate of 40.4 percent, per TeamRankings.com. That puts them at No. 14 in the league, which isn't dire, but in an offense with so few flaws, this has certainly been one of them. 

3rd Downs	3rd Downs Converted	Conversion %	League Rank
47	19	40.43%	14

In Week 4 against San Francisco, that number was as low as 33.3 percent, as the Packers only went 5-15 on third downs. And a big reason for that low success rate is the offensive line's play. 

Obviously, the offensive line is crucial to third-down success. It must prevent the quarterback from being sacked, which effectively always brings up a punt unless the team is in a short-yardage situation and wants to go for it on fourth down. 

It must also, in short-yardage situations, be prepared to open up a running lane for the rusher when the opponent essentially already knows the play is coming before it happens. 

Against San Francisco, the offensive line did not fulfill the first part of its duty. Of the three sacks Aaron Rodgers took at the hands of the 49ers, all came on third down. 

The offensive line has suffered with the absence of right tackle Bryan Bulaga, and when he returns, the Packers might also begin to have more success on third downs.

According to Pro Football Focus, in fact, in Week 4, replacement right tackle Don Barclay was responsible for every sack allowed on Rodgers. It's not a stretch to presume that if Bulaga had been in at right tackle on those three plays, Rodgers may have taken fewer sacks than he did. 

Ironically, the Packers have gone 3-of-4 on fourth downs this season, including converting both of the attempts they made Sunday against San Francisco.

While this suggests the play-calling has been a touch more aggressive this season with Tom Clements assuming those duties in collaboration with head coach Mike McCarthy, it also indicates that defenses are having less success pressuring Rodgers on fourth downs. 

Because the offense has still outscored its opponents handily, its third-down failures haven't proven to be a barrier to winning. Green Bay still has just 0.8 punts per offensive score, per TeamRankings.com, meaning their drives end in scores more often than they end in punts. 

Struggling teams, such as the 49ers or the Philadelphia Eagles, have a punts-per-offensive-score mark at or above 2.0, meaning they score only half as often as they punt. 

Through Week 3, the Packers had a total DVOA of 51.0 percent, per Football Outsiders, making them the second-most efficient team in the NFL. 

That kind of mark hardly screams for improvement, but the potential future issues will come if the Packers aren't playing with a big lead and suddenly are losing opportunities to score by ending drives in punts. No lead is sacred in the NFL...at least until the two-minute warning.  

In trying to extend some of their failed drives, the Packers don't even need to reach the red zone to help their cause. Simply getting into position for field goals would help pad their score.

Against the 49ers, for example, an early drive ended in San Francisco territory, at the 49ers' 47-yard line.

If the Packers had been able to convert the third down by advancing even a few more yards down the field, they would have put kicker Mason Crosby in position for a 50-plus-yard field goal. 

Yes, he had a missed 44-yard attempt on Sunday, but Crosby is 100 percent on attempts over 50 yards this season and 2-of-3 on attempts of 40-49 yards. 

The Packers might also help their case by going with Eddie Lacy more often in 3rd-and-short situations. It could have been because his ankle is still giving him trouble, but on three occasions against the 49ers, Rodgers attempted a pass on 3rd-and-3 or fewer yards. 

The Packers converted 46.7 percent of their third downs in 2014 (No. 3 in the league), so they have experienced a decline to start this year. But with improved offensive line play, the 2015 number of 40.4 percent could rise in the coming weeks.