Why 8 Is a Realistic 2015/16 Goals Target for Juventus' Simone Zaza

The subject of Simone Zaza has divided the Juventus fan base over the last few months.

The 24-year old striker signed from Sampdoria in the summer of 2013, after he scored 18 times on loan at Ascoli in Serie B.  He spent the next season on a co-ownership at Sassuolo, who then bought him outright in 2014—albeit with a buyback clause for Juve.

They exercised that clause this summer in a move that was not without controversy among their own fans.  Many weren't convinced that Zaza was of Juve quality and clamored instead for the resolution of Domenico Berardi's co-ownership in the club's favor.

Berardi instead stayed with the Neroverdi, although Italian transfer guru Gianluca Di Marzio reported (h/t Football Italia) that the deal included a near-identical buy-back clause for next summer.  It was Zaza who arrived at Vinovo when training camp began.

With the likes of Paulo Dybala, Mario Mandzukic and Alvaro Morata competing for playing time, Zaza seems to be a way down in the pecking order.  But with Juve competing across three competitions, coach Massimiliano Allegri will need to rotate the squad at some point.  Zaza will be involved in this, especially later in the season, when there is the potential for a big fixture crush between the league and European play.

Tullio M. Puglia/Getty Images

It's because of that need that one number came to mind when projecting a goal total for Zaza over the season.  While it's by no means a spectacular number, it is likely going to be a respectable total given the amount of playing time he's likely to receive.  That number is eight.

Since he started playing in Serie A full-time, Zaza has been a streaky player.  Last year he started off like gangbusters, earning a start for the national team and scoring twice in his first three games for club and country.

But after that, he went a month without scoring, then the last half of October before going on a tear in December and January, scoring five times in five games over the winter break.

It's that streaky nature that has soured some of Zaza's abilities, because when he's off, he's really off.

Off form, Zaza can look like a Serie B player.  His first touch will send the ball yards away.  His passes will miss the mark by miles.  His shots wind up in row Z.  He commits a lot of fouls and piles up a disturbing number of cards for a forward—21 over his two years with Sassuolo.

It hasn't helped him that a lot of his fallow periods have coincided with his call-ups to the national team.  His very public inability to consistently reproduce the stunning form of his first two games for the Azzurri has highlighted Italy's lack of a goalscorer comparable to Alessandro Del Piero, Filippo Inzaghi or Francesco Totti in their prime and seen many observers label him a failure.

This is grossly unfair, because when he's at full tilt, he's a different player.  He is tenacious at both ends of the field and runs harder and longer than any of his teammates save Stephan Lichtsteiner.  When he's in his groove, he finishes with confidence, as he did to seal Wednesday's game against Sevilla.

Valerio Pennicino/Getty Images

He also has a penchant for scoring in big games and big moments against top opponents.  Two years ago he scored a late equalizer against Napoli that earned Sassuolo its first-ever Serie A point.  He scored against Juve in two of four games and bagged a brace against Roma at the Stadio Olimpico last December to earn the Neroverdi a draw.

Zaza's big-game sense and willingness to work should be appreciated more.  Unfortunately, his lack of consistency with the national team has colored opinion of him, and his choppy form for his new club has been seen as a prime example of Juve's slow start to the season.

But Zaza has all the ability to be a quality backup on this team.  He's not going to get a ton of playing time when the entire roster is healthy, which will, of course, drive all his stats down.  Still, Zaza is going to get his opportunities, and they're likely to be Coppa Italia matches and league games against lesser competition while the likes of Morata and Dybala are given rest for bigger games.

Because of the level of competition he's likely to see when he's on the field, Zaza should put up a decent return for his playing time.  Double digits are unlikely given the relative lack of playing time he's likely to see, but he could get close.  When all competitions are considered, eight is the number that keeps coming back as the likeliest of scenarios.