Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hope to snap a 10-game home losing streak when they host the undefeated Carolina Panthers in an NFC South matchup on Sunday. The Bucs have gone 2-8 against the spread during that skid, while the Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their past eight divisional road games.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 39.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.0-20.2 Buccaneers

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina is a confident group with quarterback Cam Newton finding ways to better utilize tight end Greg Olsen as his best receiver now that second-year player Kelvin Benjamin out for the season with a knee injury. Olsen has been targeted 25 times by Newton over the past two games, making 14 catches, including eight for 134 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 27-22 win over the New Orleans Saints.

The Panthers defense has also stepped up when needed this season, previously doing a solid job versus Tampa Bay as well in limiting their opponents to 17 points or less in winning each of the past four meetings. They do not have a big number to cover here, so the defense must continue to play at that level. Also, the team just added pass-rusher Jared Allen to the mix in a trade with the Chicago Bears earlier in the week.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs were solid last Sunday despite their 19-9 road loss to the Houston Texans and just need to do a better job offensively with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston under center. Winston was instrumental in helping Tampa upset the New Orleans Saints on the road the previous week and will obviously have some growing pains.

The offense is much more dangerous, though, with wide receiver Mike Evans on the field, as he did not play in the season-opening loss to the Tennessee Titans due to a hamstring injury. Evans was targeted a team-high 17 times against the Texans and will be an important player to watch here back at home against Carolina.

Smart pick

Carolina’s unbeaten record will be put to the test on the road in the team’s second trip to the state of Florida in a month. The Panthers were able to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars fairly easily in their season opener, but the Buccaneers are much better offensively and finally have all their weapons available with Evans healthy. Tampa Bay has what it takes to pull off the upset in this spot and will end its home losing streak with a victory.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Buccaneers.

The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight divisional games on the road.

The Buccaneers are 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.