Why Mateo Kovacic Could Be Real Madrid's Key Man vs. Malmo

It might be the biggest game Malmo have contested in 36 years since reaching the European Cup final in 1979, but if it is, manager Age Hareide certainly isn't showing it. 

"They know nothing about us," the Malmo boss said buoyantly of his team's looming opponent, Real Madrid, per Marca. "And they're only human."

Based on evidence from the last week or so, Hareide is correct: Aside from a flowing performance against Athletic Bilbao that could easily have resulted in a lopsided scoreline, Rafa Benitez's men have looked a little off colour in scraping by Granada and drawing a blank against Malaga, both at home at the Bernabeu. 

Unsurprisingly, then, the mood in the Spanish capital has been somewhat anxious in recent days. "Strikeout," ran a Marca headline on Sunday, while others seen since have included: "The curious case of Cristiano's mini-crisis," "Wanted: alternative goalscorers," and "Injuries wreck Rafa's plans."

Hareide would be right in thinking that his team are getting Real Madrid at a good time. 

In a week that's been indifferent for Real, several things have stood out: a) Injuries to James Rodriguez, Gareth Bale and Sergio Ramos have predictably blunted Los Blancos' threat, b) the team looked far more comfortable attacking the space behind Athletic's high line than trying to penetrate the deep-sitting defences of Granada and Malaga, and c) the side's ball movement has slowed. 

Given that Malmo will likely look to replicate the methods of the two Andalusian teams, it's that final point that needs addressing. 

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Time and time again, we've highlighted how the potency of this Real Madrid outfit is extremely dependent upon the speed with which the ball moves, and by extension the unique talents of those capable of orchestrating that necessary speed. When the ball fizzes around the pitch, when its movement is crisp and done on instinct, Los Blancos are devastating; when it's not, they're predictable.

Once more, that's been evident across the last week. 

When Madrid looked dangerous at the San Mames, Benitez diverted from his characteristic 4-2-3-1 and used a three-man midfield in a 4-3-3 featuring Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic. What that meant for Real was that the trio in the middle all shared a common trait: their primary instinct is to find the quickest available pass. Consequently, the ball's passage through the centre of the pitch became brisk, the delivery to the forwards rapid. 

The same recipe is nearly always evident when Rodriguez plays. 

Still, against both Granada and Malaga, the balance of the system was entirely different. Against the former, Lucas Vazquez started on the right of a 4-2-3-1 in the Colombian's absence, with Isco used as the No. 10; against the latter, it was Jese who occupied the right flank in a similar setup. 

In both instances, what transpired was slower ball movement due to the touch-happy tendencies of Isco centrally and the replacement of a pass-first player (Kovacic) for a dribbling wide man (Vazquez/Jese).

Illustrating that are the dribble statistics: Against Athletic, for example, Kovacic attempted just one dribble, while Isco did the same when pushed out to flank; against Malaga, Isco attempted four when used through the middle and Jese attempted five out wide, per WhoScored.com. In the first of those games, Real were slick; in the second, they were laboured. Evidently, the pass-dribble balance is a key factor for Madrid. 

As such, Kovacic could be an important figure for Benitez on Wednesday against Malmo. 

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The Croatian, though still rather raw, has made an encouraging start in white, and would give Benitez the slickest passing combination currently available to him if used alongside Kroos and Modric in a midfield three. And given that an attacking spark is needed, it's a move that feels necessary. 

Indeed, with the diverse talents of Rodriguez missing and without the explosiveness of Bale, Madrid are in a position in which rediscovering their form is a matter of regaining systematic fluency. Without two Galacticos, their raw-talent advantage lessens, meaning it's the cohesion of the collective that needs to triumph. 

Essentially, with less individual brilliance to turn to, the passing needs to quicken. The positional interchanges need sharpening. The service to the forwards needs streamlining. The tempo, the speed of the ball movement, needs a kick. 

Kovacic won't do all that on his own, of course, but his presence in the XI would provide an alteration to the dynamic that could help initiate the shift.