NASCAR at New Hampshire 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for the Sylvania 300
One race down, two races to go.
That’s putting the Chase for the Sprint Cup in the best perspective.
Granted, there are actually nine races and four rounds overall remaining in the Chase before NASCAR crowns the 2015 Sprint Cup champion. But there may be no race more important than Sunday’s Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
With seven drivers within seven points of series leader Matt Kenseth, that leaves nine others who are essentially on either side of the elimination bubble to advance to the second round after next Sunday’s race at Dover.
Unless 16th-ranked Clint Bowyer (52 points behind Kenseth) and 15th-ranked Kevin Harvick (43 points back) can win on Sunday at New Hampshire, their season will likely be all but over even before next week’s final race of the first round at Dover.
One other thing to consider is that if bad luck can befall someone like Harvick and Bowyer, what’s not to say that someone else like Kenseth or Kyle Busch or Chicago winner Denny Hamlin can’t experience the same fate at New Hampshire—and like Harvick, go from hero to zero in just one race.
There’s plenty to look at and watch for in race No. 2 of the Chase.
Here’s how this Sunday’s Sylvania 300 shapes up:
By the Numbers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
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Sylvania 300
Place: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 2 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBCSN, 1 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 300 laps, 317.4 miles (1.058-mile, flat oval)
Defending winner: Joey Logano won this race last year, the second time the Connecticut native has won at what he calls his home track. Kyle Busch won earlier this year at NHMS on July 19.
Youngest winner: Joey Logano on June 28, 2009 (19 years, one month, four days)
Oldest winner: Mark Martin on Sept. 20, 2009 (50 years, eight months, 11 days)
Youngest pole winner: Brian Vickers on July 17, 2005 (21 years, eight months, 23 days)
Oldest pole winner: Bill Elliott on July 21, 2002 (46 years, nine months, 13 days)
Most wins: all-time Jeff Burton (four); active—Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three each)
Most poles: all-time and active—Ryan Newman (seven)
Most top-fives: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (16)
Most top-10s: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (23)
Lead lap finishes: Jeff Gordon (35)
Laps completed: all time and active—Jeff Gordon (11,967)
Laps led: all time and active—Jeff Gordon (1,373)
Most race starts at New Hampshire: all time and active—Jeff Gordon (41)
Race record: Jeff Burton (117.134 mph) on July 13, 1997
Qualifying record: Brad Keselowski (140.598 mph) on Sept. 21, 2014
Best average start: all time and active—Ryan Newman (9.333)
Best average finish: all time and active—Brad Keselowski (10.250)
TRACK NOTES:
- Total number of races at New Hampshire: 41
- Total number of different pole winners in New Hampshire history: 19
- Races won from pole: five
- Last race won from pole: Ryan Newman on July 17, 2011
- Number of race winners at New Hampshire: 24
- DNFs (most): all time and active—Joe Nemechek (15)
- DNFs (least): all time—Mark Martin (0 in 31 starts); active—Kevin Harvick (0 in 29 starts)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines
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Jeff Gordon to become NASCAR’s Iron Man: When the green flag drops to start Sunday’s race, Jeff Gordon will make his 789th consecutive start. That will break Ricky Rudd’s prior record and leave Gordon as the driver who has made the most consecutive starts in NASCAR history. Provided he makes all of the remaining nine races, Gordon will have made 797 consecutive starts by the time he retires at the end of this season.
Speaking of Jeff Gordon, will this FINALLY be the place? Gordon has competed in all 41 Sprint Cup races in New Hampshire Motor Speedway history. He’s tied for second in most wins there (three), as well as has the most top fives (16) and top 10s (23). Could Sunday potentially be the place Gordon finally earns his first win of 2015?
Can Kevin Harvick bounce back? After last Sunday’s devastating 42nd-place finish in the opening race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup at Chicagoland, the defending series champion finds himself in a deep hole. Harvick is 15th in the standings. He must earn at least a top 10 both this Sunday at New Hampshire and next Sunday at Dover to potentially advance to the second round of the Chase.
Is Clint Bowyer’s Chase over already? With the penalties handed down to himself and his team on Wednesday, Clint Bowyer looks like his hopes of advancing to the second round of the Chase are all but nil. He’s 52 points behind Chase leader Matt Kenseth; in other words, dead last in the 16-driver Chase field. About the only way Bowyer can dig himself out of this hole is to win each of the next two races. For a guy who hasn’t won a Sprint Cup race since 2012, winning one—let alone two—just doesn’t seem very likely, does it?
Can Joe Gibbs Racing keep its momentum going? All four JGR drivers finished in the top 10 in Sunday’s Chase opener at Chicagoland. Denny Hamlin won, Carl Edwards was second, Matt Kenseth was fifth and Kyle Busch was ninth. Right now, JGR seems almost unbeatable—and that it appears a good bet the eventual season champ will be coming out of the JGR stable. But remember, there are nine races left, and anything can happen. While JGR has gotten off to a great start, let’s revisit that nine weeks from now heading into Homestead.
Drivers to Watch
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Kevin Harvick:
He’s already one of the top storylines, but it bears repeating. Harvick fans and non-fans alike will likely be watching the No. 4 Chevrolet very intently Sunday, because it’s very likely that race could be a make-or-break situation on whether he advances to the second round of the Chase. Sure, there’s still Dover remaining next week to close out the first round, but if Harvick has another bad finish at New Hampshire, his hopes of repeating as a champion will be done.
Earnhardt comes into Sunday’s race with a rather interesting statistic. He has the most successful record at New Hampshire of any Sprint Cup driver who has never won there. Which leads to the obvious follow-up question: Will Earnhardt finally win at the flat one-mile track?
Given that he’s ranked 10th in the Chase after the first race, Earnhardt has to really come up with a breakthrough finish Sunday: He’s just 10 points ahead of Jamie McMurray, who is ranked 13th and is the first of four drivers on the potential elimination bubble.
Ryan Newman
The Rocket man loves New Hampshire and has had some decent success there, especially with pole positions earned (he owns the track record with seven). Even though he finished fourth at Chicagoland in the Chase opener last Sunday, Newman comes into New Hampshire ranked in eighth place, just 12 points out of 13th place.
Sure, his consistency-first game plan worked last season and is also what got him into this season’s Chase. But Newman can’t afford a mediocre finish at New Hampshire. He needs to go for nothing short of a win. If he succeeds, it would be his first visit to Victory Lane since his 2013 triumph in the Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis.
Paul Menard
The Wisconsin driver made the Chase for the first time in his career by a mere 17-point margin and had such high expectations heading into Chicagoland last Sunday. Unfortunately, he had a less-than-stellar Chase opener, finishing 17th, one lap behind the leaders, and had just two fellow Chase drivers finish below him. Menard needs to essentially follow Richard Childress Racing teammate Ryan Newman everywhere he goes.
In other words, if Menard stays in Newman’s tire tracks—and if Newman has a good day—it could be what boosts Menard up in the standings. Because right now, he’s 14th. One more mediocre finish and Menard can likely say goodbye to advancing to the second round.
Martin Truex Jr.
Truex had a decent enough finish at Chicagoland (13th), but it wasn’t good enough, especially if he hopes to advance to the second round of the Chase. Entering New Hampshire, Truex is ranked 11th in the Chase standings, just seven points ahead of 13th-ranked Jamie McMurray.
Remember, just the top 12 ranked drivers after Dover next week will advance to the second round. Truex has to come out of New Hampshire with no less than a top 10, although a top five would likely put him over the top to make it to that second round.
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Favorites
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Denny Hamlin
What ACL? By winning this past Sunday at Chicagoland, Denny Hamlin—proved beyond a shadow of a doubt—to me and a lot of other doubters that the torn ACL he suffered in his right knee two weeks ago will not be an impediment to winning his first Sprint Cup championship this season. Hamlin likes short tracks such as New Hampshire, so it won’t surprise me if he wins for a second consecutive week.
But at the same time, his win in Chicago gives him an automatic berth into the second round of the Chase. So if Hamlin wants to take it easy, or try to help out his other three Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in Sunday’s race, I don’t think many folks would blame him.
Matt Kenseth
New Hampshire is so similar to many of the tracks Kenseth grew up racing upon in the early part of his career, particularly the ASA (American Speed Association) circuit. That’s why Kenseth has compiled an excellent record at Loudon, with one win, seven top-five and 16 top-10 finishes in 31 career starts. Now that teammate Denny Hamlin has punched his ticket to the second round of the Chase, it’s Kenseth’s turn to join Hamlin.
Kyle Busch
This is a no-brainer selection, particularly with the way Busch won back in July at New Hampshire. Plus, Busch has a very strong record at Loudon: In 21 starts, he has two wins, eight top-five and 11 top-10 finishes (along with two poles).
Unfortunately, Busch has a history of virtually each time he’s qualified for the Chase in his Sprint Cup career, he has ultimately wound up doing poorly in it. He needs to win Sunday to not only advance to the second round, but also to prove he can be a bona fide Chase champion this season.
Joey Logano
Given the fact he considers New Hampshire his home track, it’s not a surprise that Logano has a decent record there: In 14 starts, he has two wins, four top-five and six top-10 finishes. But Logano has one problem at Loudon that could confound him Sunday. He has never been able to find the kind of consistency there that he has at so many other tracks.
In other words, he can have a great race the year before (like the way he won at Loudon in this race last season) and then come back and have a mediocre or worse finish on Sunday. He needs to shake that stigma—and another win would certainly do that.
Tony Stewart
I know; I sound like a broken record. I’ve picked Stewart as either a favorite to win or a driver to watch several times this season. And yet each time he’s failed me. Still, I’m not giving up on Stewart.
I firmly believe he will finally get a win at some point in the nine remaining races. And New Hampshire would be a perfect place for him to do so, given that he’s part of a five-way tie for the most wins among active drivers (three each).
Dark-Horse Pick: Greg Biffle
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This could be the dark horse of dark horses, given the way Greg Biffle’s season has gone.
The Biff is in the midst of the worst season in his Sprint Cup career. Not only did he fail to make the Chase for just the second time in the last eight seasons, but he has also earned just two top-five and three top-10 finishes in the first 27 races.
But a place like Loudon definitely plays into Biffle’s favor (he has one win, six top-five and nine top-10 finishes in 26 career Cup starts there) and could potentially provide one of the few season highlights he may be able to look back upon once the 2015 campaign is over.
And the Winner Is: Brad Keselowski
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I picked Keselowski to win in the Chase opener at Chicagoland, and he finished eighth.
Even so, I’m going to pick him to win for a second consecutive week.
Yes, this has not been a typical season for Keselowski. In 2012, when he won his first Cup championship, he had five wins.
He missed the Chase the following season, primarily because he had just one win in 2013. He rallied back with a career-high six wins in 2014 and finished fifth in last year's Chase.
Keselowski comes into New Hampshire ranked ninth in the standings. He needs to start winning, which would not only give him an automatic berth into the next round, but it would also ensure he doesn’t fall back and somehow wind up being eliminated in the first round.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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