Key X-Factors Who'll Determine MLB's Final 2015 Playoff Teams
Francisco Lindor and Miguel Sano are not only two of the top contenders for the American League Rookie of the Year Award, but are also two of the key X-factors who will determine which clubs snag the final 2015 MLB postseason spots.
When it comes to singling out X-factors, the main rule is that the given player can't be the biggest star of his team. Instead, the idea is to focus on guys like Lindor and Sano who could potentially have a decisive impact, but whose influence will be difficult to predict.
For Lindor and Sano, it's challenging to forecast just how crucial of a mark they'll make during the stretch drive because both players have extremely limited big league resumes. Other players on the list fit the bill because, while they're rolling along as of late, their play has been far from consistent in 2015.
The players on this list all come from teams that are clinging to a postseason spot or that are right on the verge of securing one. Plus, there's one club on the list whose X-factor isn't a player, but rather the schedule itself.
The X-Factor: Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
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Francisco Lindor isn't worried about where he's going to end up on the AL Rookie of the Year ballot.
"I don't play for awards, the only thing I play for is winning the World Series," Lindor explained via MLB Network Radio.
With the Cleveland Indians 4.5 games back in the chase for the second wild-card spot, the Tribe still have plenty of work to do if the team is going to even have a chance to play for a World Series title. But Lindor gets a ton of credit for the fact that Indians are in the conversation at this late juncture.
The 21-year-old shortstop, who arrived in the bigs back in the middle of June, just keeps getting better and better. Take a look at his OPS by month:
- June: .539
- July: .772
- August: .913
- September: 1.031
That's a remarkable trend for Lindor, but it's worth noting that the switch-hitter will be in uncharted territory down the stretch. While splitting the campaign between Triple-A and Cleveland, Lindor has already played in 145 games, which is 19 more than he's ever appeared in during a professional season.
The X-Factor: Albert Pujols' Right Foot
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Albert Pujols definitely isn't 100 percent. Just ask the Los Angeles Angels masher.
"The last two weeks, that's not the player I am," Pujols said, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. The vet deals with chronic pain in his right foot and he made matters worse when he injured a toe on August 28. "I'm playing hurt. I'm going to play hurt."
Now, the big question for the Angels is just how much production the right-handed hitter will provide as he plays through the pain. So far, the answer to that questions has been "not much."
In his last 15 games, Pujols has logged a .071 average, and he has hasn't gone yard since September 2. Plus, as DiGiovanna pointed out, the injury is bad news for the rest of the lineup, as a hobbled Pujols can't provide much protection for Mike Trout.
With the Angels 3.5 games out for the second wild-card spot, a few big hits could be the difference between a trip to the playoffs and an early offseason. Los Angeles will have to hope that Pujols is able to provide a key swing or two—even in his current state.
The X-Factor: Jayson Werth, LF, Washington Nationals
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Jayson Werth knows all about late-season surges and epic collapses.
Back in 2007, the right-handed hitter was part of a Philadelphia Phillies team that tracked down the New York Mets in the National League East despite trailing by seven games with 17 to go.
Admittedly, the Washington Nationals are in a more dire spot this September, as the club is 6.5 games behind the Mets with 12 contests left on the docket. But as Werth explained via Eddie Matz of ESPN, he sees parallels between the 2007 Phils and the 2015 Nats.
“A lot has to happen. We have the sense that we really can’t afford to lose any more games. I remember having that same feeling in ’07. That’s where we’re at now.”
Washington (3-0) hasn't lost since Werth made those comments, and the 36-year-old has been doing everything he can to help the Nationals reel in the Mets. In September, Werth has slugged six home runs and posted a .978 OPS.
Make no mistake about it—Bryce Harper is the MVP of the Nats and the NL. But Werth, who has woken up at just the right moment, is the club's X-factor.
If Washington is going to have any chance of getting to within striking distance of the Mets by the time the team travels to Queens for a three-game set to close out the season, Werth will have to keep his Harper impression up.
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The X-Factor: Miguel Sano, DH, Minnesota Twins
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Miguel Sano can change any game with a single swing.
And the 22-year-old has been changing a lot of games since joining the Minnesota Twins on July 2. In his first 67 contests with the wild-card contenders, Sano has crushed 17 home runs. The right-handed hitter doesn't hit cheap homers, either. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Sano has connected on the three longest bombs by a Twin this season.
Sano has piled up a .965 OPS, which would be the fourth-best mark in the AL if he had enough at-bats to qualify for the league leaders. The only knock on the Twins designated hitter is that he has a nasty habit of swinging and missing. Since the All-Star break, Sano has racked up more punchouts (88) than any player in baseball.
Like Francisco Lindor, the other rookie on this list, Sano has already reached a career high in games. But also like Lindor, Sano is showing no sign of slowing down. In his last seven games, the rising star has posted a .320 average and a .560 slugging percentage.
The X-Factor: Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Texas Rangers
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Shin-Soo Choo has had one strange season.
In the first half, the lefty hitter checked in with a .221 average. Since the break, Choo has clocked in with a .350 average. The right fielder has been flat-out raking in September, swinging at a clip of .441 with an absurd .568 OBP. As noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Choo recently reached base 18 times in 26 plate appearances.
Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder grab most of the headlines, but the Texas Rangers veteran first base baseman/DH knows that the team's success is truly a team effort.
"We are definitely a part of the leadership that has taken control of going further," Fielder said of himself and Beltre, via T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. "But there are so many guys on the team that contribute every night, so it is not just us."
With his second-half rise, Choo has proven that he is definitely one of those guys. For the first year-and-a-half of his tenure with the Rangers, Choo looked like a lost cause. Now, he's become an indispensable piece for the surprise leaders of the AL West.
The X-Factor: Whether the Houston Astros Can Overcome Their Road Woes
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The road has not been kind to the Houston Astros.
Away from Minute Maid Park, the Astros have reeled off a 29-46 record, which is the worst road mark of any team in the AL. As noted by Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, Houston has the chance to become the first team in the 21 years of divisional play to make the postseason while sporting the worst road record in the league.
No player better embodies the Astros' out-of-town struggles than team ace and Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel. The lefty owns a shiny 1.49 ERA at home, but that figure jumps to 3.82 when he leaves Minute Maid.
Keuchel and the Astros play the next five games in Houston, but they'll end the campaign with a decisive six-game trip. That jaunt could not only determine whether Keuchel wins the Cy, but whether the Astros will make it to the postseason for the first time since 2005.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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