Predicting Rookie Season Numbers for Every Top 2015 NBA Draft Pick
A handful of June's top NBA draft picks could be looking at major rookie roles.
A few project as top offensive options for their respective teams, including Jahlil Okafor and Emmanuel Mudiay. On the other hand, a couple of others are likely to be brought along a bit slower in 2015-16.
To predict the top rookies' numbers, we took into account their readiness—which is tied to each player's physical tools, skill level and experience—and their projected playing time.
We only considered top-10 picks and those expected to play significant minutes.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, PF/C
1 of 12
Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
29.0 MIN, 46.0 FG%, 13.5 PTS, 8.0 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.5 BLK, 30.0 3FG%, 77.0 FT%
At 6'11", 250 pounds, Karl-Anthony Towns will fit right into the NBA game. His size, length and athleticism should naturally translate to routine production in the form of easy buckets—finishes, alley-oops, putbacks—as well as rebounds and blocked shots.
Though there is some crowding in Minnesota's frontcourt, Towns is going to see plenty of touches, assuming coaches prioritize his development and tap into his inside-out skill set. With a back-to-the-basket game, face-up attack and shooting touch, he should be looking at regular scoring chances off post-ups, short corner isolation, elbow flashes and pick-and-pops.
Early on, I wouldn't count on seeing much consistency from Towns, who shot 39.6 percent overall and averaged 6.2 fouls per game in summer league. His counter-offense and defensive discipline both need some work.
But we're bound to witness occasional eruptions that highlight the versatility behind his mismatch potential. Just like Andrew Wiggins last year, Towns will start to build some rhythm in January after two months of trial and error.
Look for Minnesota's prized big man to ultimately put up similar numbers as Anthony Davis did his rookie year in New Orleans.
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers, PG/SG
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Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
28.0 MIN, 42.0 FG%, 13.8 PTS, 4.0 REB, 5.0 AST, 1.0 STL, 35.0 3FG%, 2.8 TO
The emergence of Jordan Clarkson and the addition of Lou Williams might hurt D'Angelo Russell's statistical outlook. And after a rough go in summer league, where Russell shot just 37.7 percent and put up a 3.2-5.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, it's reasonable to assume the transition could take some time.
Still, with a green light and long leash, he will produce.
Russell's ball skills, from his handle and pull-up jumper to his pass timing and accuracy, are NBA-ready. And at 6'5" with plenty of shooting range, he offers the versatility to play alongside Clarkson or Williams on the wing, which should help maximize his opportunity.
Russell isn't an explosive athlete, and chances are he'll struggle finishing around the basket, which will likely weigh on his field-goal percentage. But his shot-making ability, vision, IQ and confidence should still translate to buckets and assists.
As a rookie, expect some erratic play from Russell mixed with flashes of playmaking brilliance.
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers, C
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Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
36.0 MIN, 47.5 FG%, 16.0 PTS, 7.5 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.4 BLK, 62.5 FG%
Arguably the most polished rookie in the field, with a body built for the NBA paint, Jahlil Okafor will be a handful in the post from opening night.
Given the lack of go-to weapons in Philadelphia, Okafor projects as the Sixers' No. 1 option. Coach Brett Brown should certainly value Okafor's ability to create high-percentage shots. It wouldn't be surprising if the big fella out of Duke led the team (and rookies) in scoring and field goals attempted.
However, against more athletic opponents down low, Okafor's efficiency is bound to slip. He shot only 43.8 percent in summer league after posting a 66.4 percent clip in college.
At the other end, expect modest rebounding numbers and very little shot-blocking. Okafor's 16.6 percent total rebounding and 4.5 percent block rates, per Sports-Reference.com, from college don't bode well for his rookie marks.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks, PF
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Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
20.0 MIN, 45.0 FG%, 8.5 PTS, 4.5 REB, 0.8 BLK, 33.0 3FG%, 75.0 FT%
Considered a project out of Latvia, Kristaps Porzingis could be looking at role-player minutes in New York, where his shooting range and athleticism hold value to a frontcourt that dresses Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn, Kevin Seraphin and Lou Amundson.
Porzingis also reportedly added 11 pounds over the offseason, according to the New York Post, which could legitimately help with the transition.
His skill set ultimately works well in the triangle. Porzingis has a smooth, confident jumper that he can knock down off screens, pick-and-pops and spot-ups. He'll likely struggle with contact at both ends of the floor, but as long as the playing time is there, his 7'1" size, mobility and bounce should routinely translate to easy buckets and blocks.
Even if coaches don't put much on his plate, we expect solid per-minute production from Porzingis, along with the eventual approval of Knicks fans.
Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic, SF
5 of 12
Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
14.0 MIN, 42.0 FG%, 6.5 PTS, 2.0 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 36.0 3FG%, 74.0 FT%
Regular playing time is the only thing likely to hold back Mario Hezonja's production. New coach Scott Skiles has never been known for counting too much on rookies. And in a lineup with Tobias Harris, Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, minutes could be difficult to come by for the Croatian wing.
However, Hezonja's ability to stretch the floor—he made 38.5 percent of his threes for Barcelona last year—could hold serious value in Orlando. Hezonja, a 6'8" superstar athlete, has unlimited shooting range and unbreakable confidence.
He'll do most of his damage next season behind the arc and above the rim.
Shot selection, mental mistakes and overall inexperience may limit his role and affect his efficiency. But Hezonja's shot-making skills and burst should lead to threes and highlight dunks.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings, C
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Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
23.0 MIN, 52.0 FG%, 8.0 PTS, 4.5 REB, 1.5 BLK, 0.8 STL, 65.0 FT%
Willie Cauley-Stein will likely split minutes with Kosta Koufos and play the same role he did for Kentucky—one that asks him to run the floor, protect the rim and finish around it.
He'll immediately enter the league as one of it's premier athletes at center. It's easy to envision him being on the receiving end of routine drive-and-lobs from Rajon Rondo and Darren Collison.
Cauley-Stein should be good for a couple of easy buckets a night, whether they're off guard penetration, fast breaks or the offensive glass.
We probably won't see him take many jumpers or shots out of the post, which should ultimately benefit his field-goal percentage. But we should see plenty of blocks and highlight defensive plays, as well as some versatility that could help propel Cauley-Stein into an elite defensive tier.
Overall, his efficiency and impact as a rookie will be far more impressive than his total production.
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets, PG
7 of 12
Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
32.0 MIN, 41.0 FG%, 15.5 PTS, 4.5 REB, 6.0 AST, 1.5 STL, 3.0 TO, 27.0 3FG%, 68.0 FT%
The departure of Ty Lawson creates a huge opportunity for Emmanuel Mudiay, who'll have the chance to emerge as the Denver Nuggets' lead guard.
Despite playing just 12 games in China all year before four more at Las Vegas Summer League, Mudiay—6'5", 200 pounds—looks more than capable of holding his own.
With a tight handle, he's shown a terrific command of the ball to match lightning quickness and above-the-rim burst.
Denver's uptempo pace should ultimately work toward his benefit. Mudiay turns open-floor opportunities into easy fast-break buckets. And though still a work in progress when the game slows down, he's a threatening shot-creator, a capable shot-maker and an excellent finisher off drives and runners.
I project his ability to break down defenses, facilitate pick-and-rolls and see the floor should also translate to six assists per game, which is around what he averaged for the Guangdong Tigers (5.9) and summer-league Nuggets (5.8).
Unfortunately, it wouldn't be surprising if Mudiay led all rookies in turnovers, given his questionable decision-making and the expectation he dominates the ball. Meanwhile, his shaky jumper should become a talking point early on, as well as a field-goal-percentage killer (13 of 38 from three in China, two of 14 in Las Vegas).
Still, Mudiay could challenge for Rookie of the Year based on his scoring and distributing numbers. Don't bet on much efficiency in 2014-15, but in terms of productivity, Mudiay's stats could be tough to beat.
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons, SF
8 of 12
Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
28.0 MIN, 44.5 FG%, 12.5 PTS, 5.5 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.0 STL, 34.0 3FG%, 74.0 FT%
Stanley Johnson could be in line for serious minutes after averaging 16.2 points on 57.7 percent shooting in summer league. Plus, neither Kentavious Caldwell-Pope nor Marcus Morris is a must-play option for the Pistons.
Opposing 2-guards and wings will immediately have their hands full with the 6'7", 245-pound rookie. And he's apparently been working on his bounce—something he wasn't quite known for out of Arizona—while training at Peak Performance Project in Santa Barbara.
"They create machines out there," Johnson told MLive.com's David Mayo. "I had some problems with my trunk and I feel like I'm jumping way higher just from the six weeks I was with them."
Johnson has also sharpened his offensive tool kit over the years. Now a good-looking three-point shooter with a balanced pull-up and floater game, Johnson could be a 2 or 3 for coach Stan Van Gundy.
Johnson struggled when finishing at the rim in college, and I suspect he'll go through ups and downs out on the perimeter. But it seems likely he'll end the year as a starter, as well as a top-five rookie scorer and a fairly efficient two-way player.
Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets, PF/C
9 of 12
Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
26.0 MIN, 45.0 FG%, 10.0 PTS, 5.0 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.3 BLK, 37.0 3FG%, 75.0 FT%
Frank Kaminsky will have a real shot at starting in Charlotte for a team that finished last in NBA three-point percentage.
With a convincing shooting stroke out to the arc, he should be good for at least one three-ball a game, whether it's as a spot-up floor-stretcher or pick-and-pop weapon. We're also likely to see his versatility come to life off face-up drives and runners on the move.
Early on, I wouldn't peg him as much of a post option or inside player, though his skill level, shot-making ability and intelligence should allow him to pick up buckets by scoring opportunistically.
It also wouldn't be wise to expect much rebounding or shot-blocking from Kaminsky, whose lack of strength, athleticism and length work against him in the paint.
Still, the Hornets' coaching staff is bound to value his jumper and IQ, as well as the space he creates by pulling opposing bigs away from the basket. I suspect he'll eventually beat out Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams for a spot with the team's first unit.
Justise Winslow, Miami Heat, SF
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Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
17.0 MIN, 43.0 FG%, 7.0 PTS, 2.5 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.8 STL, 31.0 3FG%, 70.0 FT%
Though a terrific long-term prospect, Justise Winslow's short-term outlook isn't as bright. He's still a relatively raw offensive player in terms of shot-creating and shooting.
As a rookie, Winslow's value will mostly come in the form of energy and athleticism, which should ultimately translate to buckets off fast breaks and drives. He should be able to knock down the occasional spot-up three, but with shaky mechanics, the extended NBA arc will likely take some adjusting.
Defense is ultimately Winslow's most NBA-ready strength—it just won't show up in the box scores.
Look for Winslow to play around 15-20 minutes a game backing up Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. He'll be more of statistical breakout player to watch for in 2017.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers, C
11 of 12
Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
28.0 MIN, 45.0 FG%, 11.0 PTS, 6.5 REB, 1.8 BLK, 31.0 3FG%, 77.0 FT%
Myles Turner should be locked into starter minutes after opening eyes during summer league. He certainly won't have much competition in Indiana, where Jordan Hill, Ian Mahinmi and Lavoy Allen make up the Pacers' frontcourt.
"Myles is a little bit better than I thought he was," president Larry Bird told Pacers reporter Scott Agness. "He’s got a talent that we don’t have here. He’s going to play a lot of minutes."
Turner gives the Pacers some versatility, as well as an option to feed in the half court, given his ability to create shots in the post or knock down jumpers off kickouts and ball movement. It might take a few years before he's considered a consistent three-point threat, but he has a good-looking mid-range stroke and a capable one from deep.
Strong defensive instincts and a 7'4" wingspan also make Turner a candidate to lead all rookies in blocks.
Still just 19 years old, having only averaged 22.2 minutes as a one-and-done freshman at Texas, Turner is going to experience some rookie turbulence. He's bound to have trouble with fouls, contact and opposing athleticism.
But between his skill level, physical tools and projected role, Turner looks like a good bet for regular two-way production.
Jerian Grant, New York Knicks, PG
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Projected 2015-16 Stats (Averages)
25.0 MIN, 44.0 FG%, 9.5 PTS, 4.5 AST, 1.0 STL, 32.0 3FG%, 76.0 FT%
With only Jose Calderon ahead of him at the point, Jerian Grant projects as a regular member of the New York Knicks' rotation. His 6'5" size and scoring ability will even allow him to log minutes as Arron Afflalo's backup at shooting guard.
It's ultimately Grant's passing and facilitating ability that should show up most in box scores. He has a terrific feel as a setup man, and unlike Calderon, Grant can break down defenses with dribble penetration.
He's also a good-enough shot-creator and shooter to generate offense on the perimeter. Grant has developed a threatening pull-up and step-back jumper, and, for what it's worth, he knocked down five of 10 threes in summer league.
It wouldn't even be crazy to see Grant start in a lineup that features Afflalo at the 3 and Carmelo Anthony at the 4.
Expect Grant to produce as a rookie—more so than a few other prospects who were drafted before him (Trey Lyles, Kelly Oubre, Cameron Payne, Sam Dekker).
