Daily Fantasy Football September 20: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Regardless of last week's daily fantasy football results, don't get too discouraged (or encouraged) heading into Week 2. 

Suffer a tough opening week? Don't panic. Study the outcomes to see if there are any valuable lessons to learn, but don't completely alter your process solely because Greg Olsen had an off day. On the other hand, don't get trapped into a false sense of infallibility after a successful weekend.

Sorry to say, but any regular DraftKings contestant is going to lose every now and then. To lessen those odds of falling short, consider scattering these three players into Week 2 lineups while steering clear of the latter trio.

Stock Up

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints ($5,900)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

On a day where Mark Ingram ran for 24 yards on nine carries, the New Orleans Saints running back delighted anybody who turned his way.

In a truly out-of-character performance, the big bruiser caught eight passes for 98 yards, leading him to 20.2 total DraftKings points. He tallied 29 receptions for 145 yards all of last year.

That effort will likely prove an odd outlier, but the Saints may test his hands one more week with C.J. Spiller questionable. Even if he plays, the explosive back admitted to ESPN.com's Mike Triplett that he won't be all systems go on Sunday.

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

“Well obviously I’ve been away for a while, so I’m obviously not gonna hit the ground running,” Spiller said. That means more touches for Ingram, who should receive far north of nine carries against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Against a defense that allowed 6.2 yards per rush to Bishop Sankey, this represents the perfect opportunity for New Orleans to prove its commitment to installing more offensive balance. If the home favorites build a lead as expected, Ingram will get called upon to run down Tampa Bay's throat. If he also adds a few catches to the mix, great.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington ($5,000)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

For a guy who amassed 113 receptions in 2013, Pierre Garcon flew way under the radar heading into 2015. The Washington wideout started with a solid six catches and 74 yards against the Miami Dolphins, and his role is about to expand.

With DeSean Jackson slated to miss three to four weeks, Garcon is Kirk Cousins' de facto No. 1 wide receiver. In six games with Cousins under center last season, the 29-year-old accrued 25 catches for 319 yards and three touchdowns.

As Pro Football Focus' Pat Thorman pointed out, this script should seem familiar. Jackson also missed last season's game versus the St. Louis Rams, and Garcon garnered a heavy workload:

A points-per-reception scoring system makes him an even sturdier bet at $5,000. He doesn't need to replicate Jackson's big-play ability to hold value.

St. Louis Rams Defense/Special Teams ($3,100)

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Garcon will string together enough fantasy points in a PPR format, but he's nowhere near dangerous enough to avoid St. Louis' defense against Washington.

Last weekend, the Rams collected six sacks, a pick and a punt-return touchdown in their upset over the Seattle Seahawks. Despite the 34-31 final score, the defensive unit produced 14 fantasy points. 

Right now, no defender outside of J.J. Watt poses a bigger threat than Aaron Donald. Per Pro Football Focus, the second-year defensive tackle recorded seven tackles, seven stops, two sacks and a position-high 10.1 grade. Some advice for Cousins: run.

A popular Week 1 pick, the Miami Dolphins limited Washington to 10 points and returned one of Cousins' two interceptions to the house. St. Louis should enjoy an equally prolific afternoon, except with more sacks. 

Stock Down

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots ($7,500)

Last week, Andrew Luck occupied this spot solely due to his difficult matchup with the Buffalo Bills. This Sunday, Tom Brady finds himself in an identical scenario despite an incredible season opener.

Escaping a four-game suspension, the New England Patriots quarterback celebrated by firing four touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers, going 25-of-32 for 288 yards. That performance makes him the week's fourth-most expensive passer behind Aaron Rodgers ($8,300), Luck ($8,200) and Drew Brees ($7,800).

All things considered, anyone who picked Luck lucked out, as he avoided a debacle by finishing with 243 passing yards, two touchdowns and two picks. Rodgers and Peyton Manning didn't register any garbage-time production, each exiting December meetings with no touchdowns and two interceptions last year.

Brees and Matt Ryan ($7,400) are superior Week 2 plays in the same price tier. Don't get carried away by Brady decimating a desolate Steelers defense. Rex Ryan's Bills will dial up much more pressure, and they'll probably even cover Rob Gronkowski in the end zone. 

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills ($6,600) 

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

On the other side, LeSean McCoy is listed as questionable with a nagging hamstring injury. When asked on Thursday if he expects the running back to play, Ryan told ESPN.com's Mike Rodak, "I certainly hope so."

ESPN's Dianna Marie Russini reported a more positive prognosis on Friday afternoon, claiming the Bills not only plan on McCoy playing, but operating in a heavy role:

In light of last weekend, take that optimism with a grain of salt. McCoy turned 17 carries into a lackluster 41 yards. Rookie Karlos Williams, meanwhile, generated 55 yards and a touchdown on six handoffs. "Even if McCoy is able to play, don't expect a full workload from him," Rodak cautioned. 

In a clear situation, he'd make a fine play against New England, which began the season by surrendering six yards per carry to DeAngelo Williams. Seasonal fantasy managers are starting McCoy as long as he's active, but daily players should simply use Ingram or Justin Forsett ($6,200) instead.

Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants ($3,100)

Adam Hunger/Associated Press

This should be a great week to use Larry Donnell. Along with Victor Cruz, the New York Giants have also ruled out fellow tight end Daniel Fells for Sunday's showdown with the Atlanta Falcons, last year's worst passing defense. That should mean more opportunities for Donnell, but it's no guarantee with the 26-year-old continuing to fall out of favor.

Last Sunday night, he played 42 snaps to Fells' 34, per Pro Football Focus. The site gave Donnell a minus-3.8 grade due to poor blocking, which could lead to Jerome Cunningham receiving some reps.

The starting tight end turned in 21 yards on three receptions, failing to produce a play of 10 yards or more. Since his three-touchdown outburst against Washington last September, he has registered 408 yards and two scores in 13 games. No matchup in the world can make him a comfortable play with that production.

At $3,100, he's at best a tournament punt play to distinguish a lineup from the other squads utilizing Jason Witten, Tyler Eifert and Austin-Seferian Jenkins. Just don't expect much from someone essentially starting by default.

Pricing and scoring info obtained via DraftKings.com. Follow me on Twitter for more daily fantasy analysis.

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