Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars should be used to the role of home underdogs considering how often they're lined as such, but they haven’t had much success in that role lately, going 3-12-1 against the spread in that spot over the last two-plus seasons. The Jags are home dogs again for Sunday afternoon's Sunshine State battle with the Miami Dolphins.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.4-19.1 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami opened its season last week with a 17-10 victory at Washington, covering as a three-point favorite on the road. The Dolphins spotted the Redskins the first 10 points of the game, then scored the last 17, shutting the Redskins out in the second half.

Miami never really got its running game going, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill directed the offense on a much-needed touchdown drive just before halftime. For the game, he connected on 22 of 34 throws for 226 yards and a score with zero interceptions.

Miami is coming off back-to-back 8-8 seasons; last year, the Dolphins got to 7-5 but lost three of their last four games to miss the playoffs. This season, the Fish hope to take the next step, especially after signing defensive monster Ndamukong Suh, who recorded one tackle, one assist and one detached helmet last week.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags began their season last week with a 20-9 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers, missing the cover as three-point home dogs.

Jacksonville only trailed by a point into the third quarter until quarterback Blake Bortles threw a pick-six that provided what turned out to be the covering margin. The Jaguars actually outgained the Panthers on the day, as their defense gave up just 263 yards to the Carolina offense, but three turnovers proved costly.

Jacksonville is only 7-26 in two-plus seasons under head coach Gus Bradley, but teams often make good progress in the third year of new coaching regimes. If the Jags can avoid the turnovers, feed rookie running back T.J. Yeldon, who produced 67 yards on 15 touches last week, and come up with another good defensive effort, they could keep this one close, if not pull off the outright upset.

Smart pick

Miami beat Jacksonville last October 27-13, covering as a seven-point road favorite, and this game could very well play out in a similar fashion. The smart money here swims with the Dolphins, minus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in the Dolphins' last five games against the Jaguars.

The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

The Jaguars are 2-7 straight up and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.