Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints will both be looking to pick up their first win of the season Sunday in what has been a one-sided NFC South matchup lately. The Saints have won the last seven meetings with the Buccaneers straight up, but they will try to break a five-game skid as home favorites in Week 2.

Point spread: Saints opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-20.2 Saints

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Many bettors will overreact to how bad the Bucs looked in their season-opening loss to the Tennessee Titans. Granted, they looked awful in the 42-14 rout, with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston getting outplayed by Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota in the battle between the two top overall draft picks. But that was only one game, and Tampa Bay covered the spread twice against New Orleans last year despite losing both games.

The Buccaneers have a tendency to let some losses spiral out of control, and they also have a surprising knack for surprising doubters when least expected. They were a respectable 7-9 against the spread last season even though they only won two games. That means Tampa obviously did a good job of hanging with opponents for nearly half the season. And the team was rewarded with the No. 1 pick that was used on Winston.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

This is the game where everybody will see whether or not last year was in fact a fluke and if the Saints are capable of bouncing back with a successful campaign. They did everything possible not to win the NFC South in 2014 and went 2-6 ATS down the stretch, including straight-up losses in each of their last five home games.

New Orleans is still as talented as any team in the division, though, and last week’s season-opening loss on the road to the Arizona Cardinals is nothing of which to be ashamed. The Cardinals are a good team, and that game was close until the fourth quarter. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is continuing to get used to life sans Jimmy Graham, but he has plenty of other weapons to choose from that should be able to damage Tampa’s D.

Smart pick

With the loss to the Titans, the Bucs remain the NFL’s worst team and will prove that again here. New Orleans is too good for them, especially with the status of Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans in doubt due to a hamstring injury. Evans was a stud last year as a rookie, and without him Winston simply does not have enough receivers to stretch the Saints defense. New Orleans is an easy pick here to win by double digits.

Betting trends

The Buccaneers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games against the Saints.

The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in September.

The Saints are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as home favorites.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.