New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick ColumnistSeptember 16, 2015

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck looks to pass downfield against the Buffalo Bills during the second half of an NFL football game on Sunday, Sept. 13, 2015, in Orchard Park, N.Y. Buffalo won 27-14. (AP Photo/Gary Wiepert)
Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The New York Jets were one of the biggest surprises in Week 1, while the Indianapolis Colts were one of the biggest disappointments from a betting perspective heading into their Week 2 clash Monday night.

The Jets routed the Cleveland Browns 31-10 as 3.5-point home favorites, while the Colts lost 27-14 to the Buffalo Bills as one-point road chalk and have dropped the past two meetings with New York both straight-up and against the spread.

Point spread: Colts opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-20.3 Colts

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New Jets head coach Todd Bowles is already a leading NFL Coach of the Year candidate based on his team’s performance against Cleveland. Sometimes all it takes is different leadership to bring out the best in players, and Bowles came in highly regarded from the Arizona Cardinals, where he served as their defensive coordinator.

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New York has more talent on offense than people realize, especially with Brandon Marshall joining the receiving corps opposite Eric Decker. While the quarterback situation remains the weak link, starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is a veteran who has proven he can win some games during stretches even if he can’t get the job done over the long term. And defensively, this team is built similarly to the Bills, who just upset Indy.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

It should not be a surprise that the Colts lost to a tough Buffalo team on the road. What would be surprising is if they laid another egg in their home opener here against the Jets. In 2014, Indianapolis dropped its first two games, including the second one that was also played on a Monday night. But the Philadelphia Eagles were their opponent last year, and New York is nowhere near the same team.

The Colts remain Super Bowl contenders despite their season-opening loss, mainly because they play in a weak division and have a favorable schedule. The Jets represent one of the teams they will play at home that they should easily beat, with Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck likely leading the way to help make that happen.

Smart pick

The betting line on this game is about a field goal smaller than it probably should be because of how both of these teams played in Week 1. While New York is coming off a good win, you have to consider the opponent in Cleveland. The Colts simply deserve to be bigger favorites in this spot and will prove they are the superior team on national television with a big victory by double digits that easily covers the spread.

Betting trends

The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.

The Jets are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games on the road.

The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home in September.

All point spreads and lines courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.