2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Driver Rankings: Week 27

The Chase for the Sprint Cup begins Sunday, and we mark the start of NASCAR’s marquee event of the season with a new set of driver rankings.

A total of 16 drivers will engage in a game that is a cross between musical chairs and the NCAA men’s Sweet 16 hoops tourney, with three elimination rounds followed by a one-race, four-driver, winner-take-all battle royale for the championship.

Can Kevin Harvick repeat last year’s Chase championship?

How about Jimmie Johnson? Can he win a seventh Sprint Cup championship, tying him for most championships with NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt?

And then there’s Kyle Busch. Can he rally back from his devastating wreck at Daytona in February and end the season with his first career Sprint Cup championship?

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shape up:

16. Paul Menard

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The good news is Paul Menard made the Chase for the first time in his career.

The bad news is his poor performance at Richmond, barely making the Chase ahead of Aric Almirola by a mere 17 points.

Menard comes into the Chase with zero momentum. He has to come out of Chicago with at least a top-10 finish, lest his Chase chances ultimately end two races later at the end of the first round.

15. Clint Bowyer

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It’s admirable that Clint Bowyer wants to win the Chase not just for himself, but also for the 217 employees of Michael Waltrip Racing who will lose their jobs once the company shuts its doors for good after the season.

Granted, Bowyer has talent, but he hasn’t won a race in more than three years (last one was Richmond in September 2012).

He’s not like Ryan Newman, who made it through last year’s Chase en route to a runner-up finish on consistency.

If Bowyer has a poor finish Sunday, it’ll be all that much harder for him to rally back and not be eliminated after the third race of the Chase.

14. Jamie McMurray

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Just like Paul Menard, Jamie McMurray is in the Chase for the first time in his career.

He’s flown under the radar much of the regular season, similar to the way Ryan Newman did last season.

And look how Newman wound up: runner-up to Kevin Harvick for the 2014 championship. If there was a true dark horse in this year’s Chase, it’s McMurray.

But we’re ranking him 14th heading into the Chase until, like a good Missourian, he can show us otherwise—and for the better—in the first round.

13. Denny Hamlin

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Sure, Denny Hamlin looked very strong at Richmond this past Saturday, despite having torn the ACL in his right knee just five days earlier.

But that was one race, and on a short track at that, where there’s less pressure on a knee.

But how will Hamlin and his knee fare on bigger tracks, like the 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway this week?

And, if he advances to the second round, how will he fare at a place like Talladega?

Right now, Hamlin is a work-in-progress. If he can prove that his knee is not an impediment, look for him to rise quickly in the rankings as the Chase goes on.

12. Jeff Gordon

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It pains me to rank Jeff Gordon this low heading into the Chase.

But given he hasn’t won any races thus far in 2015, plus this is his final season as an active racer, he just hasn’t shown us anything to make us think he can break through and potentially end his career with a fifth career Cup championship.

The biggest key for Gordon is to get through the first round, and then we can reevaluate his championship chances from there.

But if he performs in the first three races as he’s done for most of the first 26 races, there may not be a second round for Gordon to advance to. And what a disappointing way for his final season to end so prematurely.

11. Carl Edwards

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Even though Carl Edwards has two wins this season, there’s one stat that is very telling: He has just one other top-10 finish and six other top-10 showings in the first 26 races.

That doesn’t exactly make me want to go out and proclaim him championship material.

If Edwards can advance past the first round, he could potentially become a championship threat—and potentially finish what he started in 2011, when he fell one point short (via a tie-breaker) of stealing the championship away from Tony Stewart.

But right now, unless he records top fives in each of the first three races, I’m not going to be surprised if he is eliminated after the first round.

10. Kurt Busch

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After a terrible start to the season—being suspended for the first three races due to domestic-abuse accusations—Kurt Busch has had a decent run, with two wins, eight top-five and 14 top-10 finishes in just 23 starts.

The first Chase champion back in 2004, Busch could potentially race under the radar and make the second round.

He has what it takes to win any of the first three races in the first round.

If he can win Sunday at Chicagoland, he’ll automatically advance to the second round. And if he does that, he can rest a bit easier until then.

9. Ryan Newman

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To paraphrase an old kid’s rhyme, Ryan Newman did it before, and he can do it again.

In other words, if Newman is going to have the same kind of Chase that he had last year, he has to approach it in the same fashion: consistency, consistency and more consistency.

Sure, wins would be better, but it was that consistency formula that Newman rode all the way to the final round last season—and almost stole the championship away from Kevin Harvick.

The way I see it, Newman makes it past the first round and should also get past the second round.

From there, it’s anybody’s guess—although we like his odds to once again go all the way to the final round.

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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Maybe it’s just me, but even with two wins, 12 top-five and 17 top-10 finishes, Dale Earnhardt Jr. just hasn’t had the pizzazz or notoriety he had in 2014.

Translated, while he should be able to get past the first round of eliminations, if he slips in any of the first three races, he could become one of the biggest upsets.

Sure, it’s their first season together and there’s likely still a feeling-out process going on, but Earnhardt just doesn’t seem to have the chemistry with crew chief Greg Ives that he did with Steve Letarte.

Let’s see how the first-year pairing does under the pressure of the Chase, but right now and in my mind, the odds of Junior making the second round are 50-50 at best.

It all depends on how Earnhardt does in the first two races.

If he struggles, it’ll be a quick Chase, and his hope of finally winning his first career Sprint Cup championship will echo with one of sports’ most familiar refrains: “Wait ‘til next year.”

7. Martin Truex Jr.

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Given his outstanding performance in the first third of the season, if Martin Truex Jr. can get back to that form in the Chase, he could potentially be one of the biggest surprises.

If he doesn’t run into trouble or get caught up in someone else’s mess, Truex should reach the third round of eliminations.

Everything else from there would be a bonus. And what a story it would be if the driver of the one-car Little Engine That Could—otherwise known as Furniture Row Racing—ultimately wins it all.

6. Brad Keselowski

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The 2012 Sprint Cup champ comes into this year’s Chase with wins in two of the last three playoff openers at Chicagoland.

He rode an emotional and exciting finish over Jimmie Johnson in the 2012 race there all the way to the championship.

And while Brad Keselowski has struggled at times this season—he has just one win heading into the Chase—Keselowski thrives on pressure, especially big-time racing when the stakes are at their highest.

If he can get past the first round cleanly, there’s no reason to think he can’t make it all the way to the final round, rather than falling short like he did in last year’s Chase.

5. Jimmie Johnson

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Yes, you may find this a surprise spot for Johnson, who comes into the Chase tied for the points lead with Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth—all by virtue of each driver having four wins apiece in the regular season.

Johnson desperately wants to win a seventh Sprint Cup championship, which would tie him for the most titles by a single driver with NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt.

But there have been times this season that Johnson just hasn’t performed like himself. And while he recently announced he’s signed a contract extension to remain with Hendrick Motorsports and with primary sponsor Lowe’s, there’s no guarantee that Johnson makes it out of the first round.

Sure, he likely will once again dominate at Dover and likely will advance, but if he stumbles at Chicagoland or Loudon, he may find himself in trouble heading to Round 2.

4. Joey Logano

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What better way for Joey Logano to finish a season in the same way he began it: with a win—and the championship to boot.

Logano has everything he needs to do just that.

He made it all the way to the final round last season, but a very costly error on pit road ended his championship hopes.

Don’t think Logano hasn’t forgotten that—and neither has his pit crew, for that matter.

For Logano to complete the job he left incomplete last season, he and his team have to be all but perfect in each of the 10 Chase races.

As long as he can get the best finish he can out of his car in each race—preferably with either a win or top-five finish—Logano could be very hard to stop from winning the championship.

3. Kyle Busch

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It’s been a season of great highs and terrible lows for Kyle Busch.

It started with the devastating wreck at Daytona in February, when he suffered a broken right leg and fractured left foot.

Yet 11 weeks later, the younger Busch brother not only returned to racing, but he has also been spectacular with four wins and a spirit that makes him one of the top contenders to win the championship.

But history could be an issue regarding Busch reaching the final round.

In past Chase seasons, he’s come in with high hopes, only to fall short and be eliminated.

Much like I said about Joey Logano, the younger Busch brother has to do his best behind the wheel and his pit crew has to do its best on pit road.

I’ve said for years that Busch is a championship-waiting-to-happen. Can he finally achieve that this year? We’ll know in 10—or less—weeks.

2. Matt Kenseth

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With the way Matt Kenseth has come on of late—winning three of the last six races, part of four wins overall in the regular season—he enters the Chase with arguably the best momentum and the biggest head of steam of any of the 16 entrants.

Kenseth won the final Winston Cup championship in 2003 by using a consistency-first formula, prompting NASCAR to devise the Chase to put greater emphasis on winning races en route to championships, rather than riding consistency all the way to the title.

Let’s face it, at 43 years old Kenseth doesn’t have many more top-quality seasons like he’s had thus far in 2015.

If he’s ever going to win another championship, this could potentially be his best chance to do so.

1. Kevin Harvick

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Yes, dear reader, you may be surprised or even shocked that I have Kevin Harvick ranked so high going into the Chase.

The reason is two-fold.

First, he’s the defending Sprint Cup champion, which should give him a few theoretical bonus points in his quest to win back-to-back championships.

The other element is Harvick led the regular-season standings for all but two weeks. That’s 24 of 26 weeks of not only being the top-ranked driver. His prowess for race wins (two) as well as top fives (a series-high 18, including 10 runner-up finishes) makes Harvick the driver to beat until he proves otherwise.

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