Should Pep Guardiola Be Worried About Bayern Munich's Form?

Bayern Munich made it five wins from five combined Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal matches on Saturday as they beat Augsburg 2-1. Based on results alone, the three-time defending German champions look to be on course for another brilliant, title-winning season. Yet the manner in which they have achieved their results has not always been the most convincing.

At home against Augsburg, it took the full 90 minutes for Bayern to take the lead in front of their home fans, only overturning a first-half deficit thanks to a penalty that referee Knut Kircher admitted to Sky (h/t Bild) should not have been called.

Away to Hoffenheim, two matches prior, Bayern also benefited from a last-gasp goal to take the lead after going behind early. In that match, they played the final stages with 10 men and relied on a missed penalty to take the three points.

On the other hand, Bayern's other two Bundesliga results were masterclasses, a 5-0 hammering of Hamburg and a 3-0 drubbing of a strong, Champions League side in Bayer Leverkusen. There was no luck in those results, and Pep Guardiola's side looked lethally potent in attack and firm at the back in both instances.

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Knut Kircher, l'arbitre de Bayern - Augsburg, a admis qu'il a fait une erreur en sifflant penalty pour le Bayern. pic.twitter.com/1ij6PaoEBe

— Vines & Actu Foot (@vinesfoot) September 12, 2015"

Out of their four league matches, however, Bayern have in one way or another ridden their luck twice. The penalty against Augsburg was a gift; in Sinsheim, the referee did no favors but Eugen Polanski did by missing his spot-kick. A perfect record is nothing to complain about, but inconsistency is dangerous, and one slip-up can be fatal to a club's title aspirations. As it stands, despite their record, Bayern are second in the league table to Dortmund on goal difference.

Despite the apparent early competition in the Bundesliga, Bayern are not very likely to be overcome in league play. A 34-game season is a marathon, and Dortmund will be more worried about Bayern than Bayern are about Dortmund.

The last time a club other than the Bavarians won the title, BVB set what was then a record for points in the Bundesliga, and Bayern lost ground from Matchday 1, losing to Borussia Monchengladbach. Four losses and 10 wins in the first 14 matches showed some real cracks in the Bayern team, and Dortmund took full advantage. Unless Bayern actually begin to drop points and fall behind, their class, depth and pedigree will see them remain heavy favorites.

At the same time, competitions decided by fewer results—notably the Champions League and DFB-Pokal—will be more worrisome for Bayern given their inconsistency. Continental play should not be much of a concern until next spring, with Bayern only needing to finish in the top two of a group containing Arsenal, Olimpiacos and Dinamo Zagreb.

A huge litmus test will come in late October, however, when Bayern visit the Volkswagen Arena to take on Wolfsburg in the Pokal. Dieter Hecking's men have lost Kevin De Bruyne but will have had plenty of time to integrate Julian Draxler by that point, and the cup holders proved last season they are capable of anything in a one-off. It's rare Bayern face strong competition so early in the competition, but against Wolfsburg, they will have to be careful or risk having any hopes of a treble erased well before the winter break.

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

Looking further ahead, Bayern will face other tough tests if they beat Wolfsburg in the Pokal, and the Champions League knockout rounds will also be very difficult. Guardiola's men found themselves in trouble after the first leg of each round following the group stage last season but were able to turn it around against Shakhtar Donetsk and Porto. Barcelona, however, proved too tall a task.

Similarly, they've been able to overcome Hoffenheim and Augsburg thus far this season but will need to have taken some lessons if they are to reach their season targets.

One lesson is the confidence they can win even when not playing at their best, which can't be underestimated. It's something that, despite a marginal lead in the table, BVB are worse off without.

However, from the Augsburg game, Guardiola will need to be aware Bayern made the same mistakes as against Barcelona in the spring, playing far too aggressively and inviting chances to concede.

There was often space for Augsburg to attack, but Bayern relied on the supreme athletic superiority of David Alaba and Jerome Boateng—their pace and strength were just too much to contend with—to bail them out if the visitors ever advanced forward. That eventually failed as Raul Bobadilla managed to hold up the ball just long enough to start the move that led to Alexander Esswein's opener.

Bayern managed to put eight goals past Hamburg and Leverkusen while playing defensively sound football—the difference is they made quick transitions from defense to attack. And although they were much slower on Saturday, such a move was eventually what led to Bayern's equalizer against Augsburg. It's the way to go, not throwing numbers forward and asking a tremendous duty from the few defenders and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer.

If Guardiola and Bayern learn from close calls such as the Augsburg game, they have the quality to reach their goals and contend for a treble. The lessons learned and the confidence that can be derived from turning around deficits can actually be hugely positive toward their campaign overall.

If not taken seriously, though, it could ultimately spell disaster later in the season. And it will have been foreseeable based on early results.