Singapore Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Marina Bay Race
Formula One returns to Asia for the first time since April for the 2015 Singapore Grand Prix. The Marina Bay race is the first of seven flyaways that will determine whether Lewis Hamilton or Nico Rosberg ends the year as world champion.
Rosberg's title aspirations suffered a blow last time out at Monza when his engine failed just two laps from the end. He's now 53 points behind his team-mate in the race for the crown—but we expect the gap to be smaller when the chequered flag falls on Sunday.
Red Bull also need a big result if they want to challenge Williams for third in the constructors' championship, while McLaren will be aiming to cut the gap to eighth-placed Sauber.
The Woking-based fallen giants have scored points in just three of the 12 grands prix so far; Singapore could represent their final chance to chalk up a meaningful result before the winter break.
We think Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button can get the job done—and we're also backing a much-maligned Lotus driver to finally have a clean race.
Here are our five predictions for the weekend ahead.
Both McLarens Will Score Points
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If the theory of infinite parallel multiverses is correct, there is, somewhere beyond the boundaries of our own little pocket of space and time, a universe in which all of McLaren-Honda's bold claims and forecasts turned out to be sensible and realistic.
The title sponsor we've all been waiting almost two years for is proudly displayed on the car. The Honda engine is on course to match the Mercedes by the end of the year. Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button are targeting a podium at the next race; they might even have stood on a few already in 2015.
In our particular universe, however, things haven't gone entirely to plan. There is no title sponsor, McLaren are ninth in the constructors' championship, the Honda power unit is by far the worst on the grid and the team's drivers have just two points finishes apiece from the 12 races so far.
The MP4-30 was especially appalling around Spa and Monza—but it could do well at Marina Bay.
The Singapore circuit has more corners than any venue on the current calendar, and the few proper straights it does have are relatively short. For all the failings of the power unit, the McLaren chassis isn't that bad—and in Alonso and Button, the team have two of the finest drivers in the business.
And they won't be impacted by grid penalties, as both men have spare units sat in reserve.
We can see at least one of them scraping into Q3 by the smallest of margins and, as long as they don't break down, both in the points at the end of Sunday's race.
It'll Be Lewis Hamilton's Turn for Some Reliability Pain
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Nico Rosberg's late power-unit failure at Monza saw Lewis Hamilton's lead in the drivers' championship grow to a whopping 53 points.
It also marked the 19th race in a row at which Hamilton has scored points. The reigning world champion hasn't failed to finish since the 2014 Belgian Grand Prix; to find his last mechanically induced DNF, we have to go all the way to Canada last June.
In the same period, Rosberg has suffered three race-ruining failures—at Singapore and Abu Dhabi in 2014 and last time out in Monza.
The current points gap between the Mercedes duo is an accurate reflection of their respective performances to date, but the law of averages—however "unfair" it may be—suggests the German will get at least one chance to cut the deficit due to a Hamilton DNF.
We've got a hunch it could come in Singapore.
The new version of the Mercedes power unit may not possess the same near-bulletproof levels of reliability as the one it replaced. Autosport reports Toto Wolff referred to its introduction as a risk, while Williams' Pat Symonds told Sky Sports his team may decide to stick with the old unit instead.
Hamilton's unit survived the rigours of high-speed Monza, but the oppressive heat makes Singapore a tough place for an engine, too.
Perhaps it's the wishful thinking of a neutral hoping for a close and exciting title race, but we can see Hamilton failing to make it to the chequered flag at Marina Bay.
Pastor Maldonado Will Have a Clean Race and Beat Romain Grosjean
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Pastor Maldonado isn't having a great year. He trails team-mate Romain Grosjean by 38 points to 12 in the drivers' standings and has finished fewer races than any other full-time driver—in part due to his uncanny ability to find trouble.
The Venezuelan has a reputation for being accident-prone, and the raw statistics certainly back that up: He's been involved in significant collisions or race-damaging excursions in eight of the 12 grands prix so far.
So an unforgiving circuit lined with barriers may not sound like a happy hunting ground for Maldonado—but we think he could prove us wrong.
The Lotus man has a patchy record in Singapore—he has, of course, crashed here—but he has tended to be very quick. The circuit suits his attacking driving style, and he usually gets close to the maximum out of whatever package he is driving.
He finished 11th in an uncompetitive Williams in 2011, and in 2012, he qualified on the front row. The chance of a good haul of points in that race evaporated when he developed a hydraulic problem.
He was 11th again in 2013, beating then team-mate Valtteri Bottas to the flag, and in 2014 he finished 12th, ahead of Grosjean.
Maldonado has never finished a Singapore Grand Prix behind a team-mate. We're backing him to beat Grosjean again to keep that run going—and to score some decent points, too.
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Red Bull Will Be Back in the Podium Hunt
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Red Bull are enduring their worst season since 2008. Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat have managed just two podiums between them in a year that has seen the team fall behind Ferrari and Williams in the championship table.
The primary problem is, as it was in 2014, the uncompetitive Renault power unit. It simply lacks the grunt to compete with the Mercedes and Ferrari offerings, leaving Red Bull fighting with one arm tied behind their back.
But though they scored just 17 points in the Belgian and Italian grands prix, encouraging signs are emerging. In terms of pure speed, they're now ahead of Williams, and at circuits that minimise their power deficit, even Ferrari need to look over their shoulders.
Singapore is such a circuit, and Ricciardo is optimistic. He said after the Italian Grand Prix, per Adam Cooper, "I think the car has got better and better in the last few races, and Singapore will bring our car to life. Hopefully we can challenge Ferrari for a podium."
We're inclined to agree.
Both Ricciardo and Kvyat will have the pace to challenge default third-placed man Sebastian Vettel for the final spot on the podium.
And if Mercedes truly drop the ball, they could even fight for the win.
Top Rookie: Carlos Sainz Jr.
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Roberto Merhi can be safely discounted from this battle, and while Sauber could make steps forward in the coming grands prix, the Marina Bay circuit is made for Toro Rosso.
The STR10 is the best chassis Toro Rosso have ever produced. It isn't a million miles away from the field-leading Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari chassis but suffers from the same problem as its big brother—a weak Renault engine.
This lack of horsepower is often enough to push Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen behind teams like Force India and Lotus. But the two drivers retain faith in the car itself. Speaking to Autosport in July, Verstappen said he thought it was the second-best in F1 (behind Mercedes), while Sainz suggested it was comparable to the Ferrari or Williams.
The Singapore circuit doesn't entirely wipe out power deficits, but the time lost on the straights is lower than at an average track. This should push the Toro Rosso pair well clear of the Sauber of Felipe Nasr.
Picking a winner from the two is tough, but we think Sainz is due for a big performance. Reliability issues have seen him go six races without a point, and all worms turn sooner or later.
It'll be tight, but we're going for the Spaniard to edge his younger team-mate.
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