5 Biggest Takeaways from Week 23's MLB Action
With October baseball right around the corner, the importance of September games ramps up quite a bit. Over the next few slides, we'll analyze five of the biggest takeaways from the past week in MLB.
As the season speeds to its conclusion, more attention is obviously being paid to end-of-year storylines. Playoff positioning and award races have become prime talking points across baseball circles.
Can the Pittsburgh Pirates catch the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central? Who will emerge as the favorite in the AL Rookie of the Year race? How can anybody make a case for someone other than Bryce Harper to be the NL MVP?
Not only will we tackle those storylines, but we'll also touch on some teams on the other end of the spectrum. The race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft and the details regarding Ruben Amaro Jr.'s dismissal from the Philadelphia Phillies are both riveting headlines to discuss.
Let us know what you think in the comments section below. As we close in on the postseason, what did you learn about your team this week?
A Fine 2015 Couldn't Save Ruben Amaro Jr.'s Job
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Last week, I touched on every team's most intriguing storyline down the final stretch of the season. Here's what I wrote about the Philadelphia Phillies and Ruben Amaro Jr.'s impending contract situation: "Did Amaro do enough in 2015 to earn a new contract at the end of the season? That's a dilemma the Phillies will have to tackle over the next month."
Well, the Phillies didn't waste much time. President-to-be Andy MacPhail announced Thursday the club would not extend Amaro after the season and had dismissed him from his general manager duties.
"It's never an easy decision to make a change," MacPhail said in a statement, via ESPN.com. "Ruben has had a direct impact on some of the best years in the team's history. He helped to create some great memories for Phillies fans with his accomplishments, but in order to return to a top-contending club, we believe this is the right thing to do as we continue the rebuilding process."
Ironically, Amaro's best work as a general manager may have been his most recent. Over the past few months, the Phillies turned Cole Hamels and Chase Utley into three top-100 prospects (Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro) and the eighth-best second base prospect in the minors (Darnell Sweeney), according to MLB.com.
But ultimately, an inability to transition the Phillies from a team that won five straight NL East titles to a club with a competent rebuilding strategy doomed Amaro. Philadelphia accumulated numerous players with unflattering contracts and declining skill sets during Amaro's tenure.
Amaro deserves credit for the trades he pulled off this season—the future of the organization looks much brighter because of it. But in the end, he'll be remembered for his mishandling of Philadelphia's rebuilding efforts.
The Race for the No. 1 Overall Pick Will Come Down to the Wire
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While most of the baseball world is fixated on the teams at the top of the standings, there's an interesting situation developing among baseball's worst squads.
The race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft is in full swing with a handful of teams still in the running. Here's a glance at where those teams stand:
- Cincinnati Reds: 58-81, series remaining against STL, SF, MIL, STL, NYM, WAS (make-up game), CHC, PIT
- Colorado Rockies: 59-82, series remaining against SEA, LAD, SD, PIT, LAD, ARI, SF
- Atlanta Braves: 56-86, series remaining against NYM, TOR, PHI, NYM, MIA, WAS, STL
- Philadelphia Phillies: 54-88, series remaining against CHC, WAS, ATL, MIA, WAS, NYM, MIA
As of now, the Phillies have a two-game lead on the Braves after Atlanta won a three-game set between the teams this week. But the Braves have to be considered the favorites to clinch the coveted No. 1 spot. Since sitting at 42-42 through 84 games, Atlanta is 14-44. That's hard to do, no matter how bad a team is.
However, it's the Reds who have the toughest road over the season's final weeks. Cincinnati will face the St. Louis Cardinals twice and the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates as well.
Obtaining the rights to the No. 1 overall pick is more than just a chance to draft an impact talent. As Ben Badler of Baseball America tweeted this week, the team with the top spot in the draft also holds the top bonus-pool position. Badler said that if there's no defined No. 1 pick, a team can swing deals to acquire multiple top-10-15 players.
MLB figures to have multiple playoff races come down to the final series of the year. Although not as glamorous, another race that is taking place looks like it will do the same.
The AL Rookie of the Year Race Is Wide Open
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A few months ago, Houston Astros phenom Carlos Correa was a shoo-in to win American League Rookie of the Year. And why not? Correa leads all AL rookies in homers and stolen bases and is second in WAR.
But as Correa has slowly come off his torrid pace, two other names have emerged as viable candidates: Minnesota's Miguel Sano and Cleveland's Francisco Lindor.
Let's take a look at how the three young stars match up against one another:
| Player | Games Played | Slash Line | HR | RBI | R | SB | DRS | wRC+ | WAR |
| Carlos Correa | 78 | .274/.341/.5498 | 17 | 51 | 40 | 12 | -1 | 131 | 2.8 |
| Miguel Sano | 58 | .276/.389/.583 | 16 | 43 | 34 | 1 | -1 | 165 | 2.1 |
| Francisco Lindor | 77 | .306/.345/454 | 8 | 34 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 120 | 3.0 |
To summarize: Correa has the edge in homers, RBI, runs and stolen bases. Sano is better in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+, and Lindor leads the trio in batting average, defensive runs saved and WAR.
Good luck picking between those three, voters.
Correa captivated the baseball world with his five-tool skill set and an ability to lead the Houston Astros at a young age (20). Sano has played in 20 fewer games, but he's destroyed major league pitching and has played a crucial role for the Twins in the second half. And Lindor? He's probably the best all-around choice, excelling both offensively and defensively this season.
In the end, team standing could become the tiebreaker. That would give Correa and Sano the edge over Lindor, as both the Astros and Twins are in the middle of postseason races.
However, there's still plenty to be decided over the coming weeks. Each candidate will have plenty of opportunity to make his case before the season comes to a close.
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The Washington Nationals Are Done but Bryce Harper Is Still the NL MVP
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After they were swept and all but eliminated from postseason contention by the New York Mets earlier this week, it's easy to pile on the Washington Nationals. But love him or hate him, there is absolutely zero reason why Bryce Harper shouldn't take home the NL MVP.
As of now, he leads the NL in WAR, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, wRC+, wOBA, OPS, isolated power and hard-contact percentage.
Need more persuasion? Harper is in the midst of an all-time season. ESPN's Keith Law recently tweeted out a table from Baseball Reference. After setting the parameters for age (22 and younger) and WAR (greater than 8.8), Harper's 9.0 mark is the eighth-highest in baseball history.
Harper still has a few weeks left to play, too. Come on, this is a no-brainer. If for some reason you still aren't convinced, consider this tidbit from Ted Berg of For The Win:
"Check this out: Harper has been so good this year that he could go 0-for his next 50 at-bats (!) with zero walks and still lead all National League qualifiers in OPS. If that happened — and it won't — Harper would own a .303/.429/.591 line across 499 at-bats and an OPS just shy of Cespedes' mark in his first 168 plate appearances in the senior circuit.
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Yes, the Nationals have been MLB's most disappointing team. Yes, Yoenis Cespedes has had a huge impact on the New York Mets.
But no, nobody but Harper can make a realistic claim at NL MVP. He's easy to dislike, but there hasn't been a better player in MLB in 2015.
Strength of Schedule Will Make It Tough for the Pirates to Catch the Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals have been the best team in baseball all season. Despite playing in the top division in MLB, the Cards have managed to keep the Pittsburgh Pirates at arm's length for most of 2015.
But with just over 20 games to play, the Pirates are only four games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central. Pittsburgh can really put a dent in the St. Louis lead during a final three-game set between the two teams at the end of the month.
Considering the Pirates just took two of three from the Cardinals last weekend, there should be reason for optimism in Pittsburgh. But looking at both teams' remaining schedules, the deck is heavily stacked against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh is in the midst of a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers. After the Brewers leave town, the Pirates will face the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, Cubs, Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds to close the season. That's 13 games against playoff teams out of Pittsburgh's remaining 22 contests.
On the flip side, St. Louis is currently in Cincinnati and will finish the season against the Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Pirates and Atlanta Braves. While the Pirates are taking on some of the game's best teams, the Cardinals have 15 games left against teams that are a combined 70 games under .500.
St. Louis is steamrolling toward 100 wins and may not even need the scheduling advantage down the stretch. But with a team as talented as Pittsburgh in the rearview mirror, it can't hurt.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Sept. 12.
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