NASCAR at Richmond 2015: Preview and Prediction for Federated Auto Parts 400

After 25 races, it all comes down to just one race to determine who makes the Chase for the Sprint Cup and who fails.

Right now, guys like Paul Menard, Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer are on the right side of the bubble.

But there are plenty of guys on the outside looking in who hope to pull off an upset and earn their way into the Chase, including Aric Almirola, Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, Kyle Larson, Tony Stewart and others.

For the most part, those guys on the outside have just one task at hand: Win and they’re in the Chase. Anything less will likely not be enough.

Here’s all you need to know about Saturday’s race:

By the Numbers: Richmond International Raceway

Associated Press

Kyle Busch is the winningest active driver at Richmond with four wins. Richard Petty holds the all-time record with 13 wins at RIR.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

Place: Richmond International Raceway

Date: Saturday, Sept. 12

Time: 7 p.m. ET

TV: NBC, 6 p.m. ET

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 400 laps, 300 miles (.750-mile track)

Defending winner: Brad Keselowski in September 2014 (Kurt Busch won the last race at Richmond this past April).

Youngest winner: Richard Petty on April 23, 1961 (23 years, nine months, 21 days).

Oldest winner: Harry Gant on Sept. 7, 1991 (51 years, seven months, 28 days).

Youngest pole winner: Brian Vickers on May 15, 2004 (20 years, six months, 21 days).

Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on April 28, 2012 (53 years, three months, 19 days).

Most wins: Richard Petty (13); active—Kyle Busch (4).

Most poles: Richard Petty (8); active—Jeff Gordon (6).

Most top fives: Richard Petty (34); active—Jeff Gordon (18).

Most top 10s: Richard Petty (41); active—Jeff Gordon (29).

Lead lap finishes: Mark Martin (36); active—Jeff Gordon (32).

Laps completed: Mark Martin (21,603); active—Ken Schrader (18,656).

Laps led: Richard Petty (5,136); active—Jeff Gordon (1,637).

Most race starts at Richmond: Richard Petty (63); active—Ken Schrader (48).

Race record: Dale Jarrett (109.047 mph) on Sept. 6, 1997.

Qualifying record: Jeff Gordon (130.599 mph) on Sept. 7, 2013.

Best average start: Bobby Isaac (3.700); active—Jeff Gordon (7.978).

Best average finish: Lee Petty (4.857); active—Kyle Busch (7.350).

TRACK NOTES:

* Total number of races at Richmond: 118.

* Total number of different pole winners in Richmond history: 54.

* Races won from pole: 23.

* Last race won from pole: Brad Keselowski on Sept. 6, 2014.

* Number of race winners at Richmond: 50.

* DNFs (most): J.D. McDuffie and Bill Champion (18 each); active—Morgan Shepherd (14).

* DNFs (least): Kevin Harvick (0 in 29 starts, all-time record and active).

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.

Key Storylines

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This is the end all and be all to make the Chase: The Race to the Chase, the prelude to the Chase for the Sprint Cup, ends Saturday. With more than 15 drivers still winless and most knowing their only chance to make the Chase is with a win, Saturday’s race could resemble a demolition derby as drivers do everything they can to salvage one last chance for themselves to make it.

Can Clint Bowyer stay on the right side of the bubble?: Right now, Clint Bowyer is the man on the Chase bubble. Heading into Saturday’s race, he has a 29-point edge on Aric Almirola and a 31-point spread over Kasey Kahne. On the surface, that would seem like a decent margin, but if something happens to Bowyer early in the race (i.e. a race-ending crash), for the second consecutive year he could find himself entering Richmond in the Chase—and leaving Richmond out of the Chase.  

Clint Bowyer deva vu all over again? A little bit more about Bowyer, who knows what it’s like to miss out on the Chase. Last season, he was as high as ninth place with six races to go to make the Chase. Unfortunately, by the time the final pre-Chase race at Richmond was over, he had come up short and missed making the expanded 16-driver field. Will the same misfortune befall him Saturday, or will he make the Chase and give Michael Waltrip Racing perhaps the last thing to look forward to with its demise slated for the end of the season?

Can Tony Stewart still make the Chase?: In a sense, Tony Stewart is in a similar situation as he was four years ago. He qualified for the Chase for the Sprint Cup without earning any wins in the first 26 races. Then, when the playoff began, Stewart won five of the 10 races and held off Carl Edwards in a tiebreaker to capture the 2011 Sprint Cup championship. The only way Stewart can come close to doing that again is to win Saturday. He’s too far behind to make the Chase on points. He has nothing to lose and a Chase berth to gain if he can win at Richmond, where he already has three career wins on what he considers one of his favorite tracks in NASCAR.

Could this be a heartbreaking weekend for Paul Menard and Jeff Gordon?: Jeff Gordon is only 19 points ahead of Clint Bowyer in the Chase standings. If Gordon exits early because of either a wreck or mechanical failure, there’s the likelihood he could potentially fall short of making the Chase in his final Sprint Cup season. And Menard is in an even worse situation. He’s trying to earn his first career berth in the Chase but finds himself just 10 points ahead of Bowyer heading into Richmond. The question is who wins the points-race battle the best: Gordon, Menard or Bowyer? While it’s likely they’ll all still make the Chase, one mistake—by them or someone else—and the entire Chase bubble could turn completely upside down.

Drivers to Watch

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Menard: Protecting a more than 10-point lead over Clint Bowyer, Menard has to drive one of the most conservative races of his career. He has two things to keep in mind: Stay out of trouble, and more importantly, stay ahead of Bowyer in the points. But there’s one big problem with that: Bowyer is going to do everything he can to assure his own berth in the Chase. And with that, don’t be surprised if he goes for the win—or at least to finish at least 11 places higher than Menard. If that happens, Menard would be on the bubble and run the risk of being eliminated if a here-to-winless driver in 2015 (like Bowyer) rises to the occasion to win Saturday’s race.

Kurt Busch: Richmond has been very good to the elder Busch brother over the years. Heck, it’s been good to both brothers, including younger sibling Kyle, for that matter. But if Kurt Busch were to draw the perfect race track for himself, Richmond would likely be the place. He loves old-school short tracks and typically does very well at most of them (like Bristol, Martinsville, etc.). Busch has struggled for momentum this season. Sure, he’s in the Chase, but it would definitely help his chances going forward to head into the playoffs with a ton of momentum generated by a second straight win at Richmond (he won there this past spring).

Denny Hamlin: Will Denny Hamlin’s torn ACL in his right knee impact his performance Saturday at Richmond, let alone in the Chase? Such an injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for Hamlin, who is still seeking his first career Sprint Cup championship. But there’s hope: He suffered a similar injury several years ago and came back nine days later to win a race. The biggest thing for Hamlin will be to control the pain, try to be as comfortable as possible behind the wheel and limit the movement of his knee. Of course, he’s taking a chance because a big wreck could potentially add to the issue he has with his knee. But if Hamlin feels he can still drive and be as productive as he ever was, who are we to argue?

Kasey Kahne: If there’s anyone who can race himself into the Chase with a win, it’s Kasey Kahne. He did so last year, winning in Atlanta. Can he do it again Saturday at Richmond? Kahne has one career win at the .750-mile track—in fact, it was the first of 17 career Sprint Cup wins, back in 2005. When pressure is on the line, Kahne is one of the best in the business. But he’ll have to somewhat temper getting overly aggressive. One mistake and Kahne could go from a potential Chase berth to being knocked out of the race—and the Chase.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: What better way for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to enter the Chase than with momentum garnered from a win at Richmond? What’s more, Earnhardt couldn’t pick a much better place to earn that momentum and win than at RIR. He has an excellent career record there, with three wins, nine top-five and 13 top-10 finishes in 32 starts.

Favorites

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Kevin Harvick: Firmly ensconced in the Chase, Kevin Harvick has nothing to lose in Saturday’s race. As a result, don’t be surprised if he goes all-out for the win, which would potentially add a bit to which position he begins the Chase in when the points reset after Richmond. If Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Tony Stewart can’t get it done and win the final regular-season race, Harvick is the next-best pick in my book.

Kyle Busch: There’s no way you can’t pick Kyle Busch as a favorite for this race. In 20 career starts at Richmond, he has four wins (most among active drivers, although a long way from Richard Petty’s track record of 13 triumphs), 13 top-five and 14 top-10 finishes. While Busch can win on any track, he loves short tracks like Richmond the best. What better way for him to enter the Chase as the No. 1 seed if he can win at Richmond, which would snap the tie he has with Jimmie Johnson (four wins each)?

Brad Keselowski: Much like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski is also an old-school/old-track fan. And with 118 Sprint Cup races to date, Richmond certainly qualifies there. Keselowski won this race last September, giving him a good shot of momentum heading into the Chase. The 2012 Sprint Cup champ finds himself in a similar position Saturday. After a series-high six wins last season, Keselowski has struggled in his attempt for multiple visits to Victory Lane, with just one win thus far in 2015 (earlier this year at Fontana). He needs a win to get his Chase run off on the right foot.

Jimmie Johnson: The six-time Sprint Cup champ turns 40 years old on Sept. 17. What better way to give himself an early birthday present than to win at Richmond for the fourth time in his career? Not only that, but Johnson would lock up the No. 1 seed in the Chase for the Sprint Cup with a win Saturday. And what better way to kick off his run to a record-tying seventh Sprint Cup crown?

Jeff Gordon: It’s somewhat surprising that in 45 career starts there, Jeff Gordon has only won twice in his career at Richmond. That’s compared to significantly better performances at other short tracks, such as Bristol Motor Speedway (five wins), Martinsville Speedway (eight wins), New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon (three wins) and Phoenix International Raceway (two wins). While Gordon will likely be points racing Saturday to assure he makes the Chase (he’s just 19 points ahead of Clint Bowyer), if he finds himself within victory’s reach near the end of the race, don’t be surprised if he goes for it. He has to do something to give his season a jump-start, and a win at Richmond would be a perfect way to do just that.

Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson

Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

Let’s face it: Kyle Larson is nowhere near the phenom he was in his rookie Sprint Cup season in 2014.

It’s not like he’s forgotten how to drive.

Rather, he’s the latest victim of NASCAR’s notorious Sophomore Jinx.

But Richmond presents the kind of track Larson loves to race on—short, tight and where you can bounce off the walls or other cars and just keep on going.

Plus, there’s great incentive for Larson: If he earns his first career Sprint Cup win Saturday, he makes the Chase!

And the Winner Is: Tony Stewart

Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

Richmond holds a lot of memories for Tony Stewart.

It’s there that he won his first career Sprint Cup race in 1999.

All told, Stewart has made 32 starts at the .750-mile short track and has earned three wins, 11 top-five and 19 top-10 finishes.

Stewart doesn’t need to be told the significance of Saturday’s race: A win and he makes the Chase, which would in essence kill two birds with one stone.

First, he would qualify for the Chase for the first time since 2012. And second, he’d earn his first win in nearly two-and-a-half seasons (last time was at Dover International Speedway in June 2013).

Sure, Stewart has struggled horribly in 2015. But Richmond is an old-school track, and Stewart is an old-school driver.

He still has a few tricks up his sleeve. And if he can get some help from his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates, he has a very good chance of roaring to the front by the end of the race.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.