Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Carolina Panthers ended last season on a 5-1 straight-up and 3-2-1 against-the-spread run that only ended in a tough NFC playoff loss at eventual conference champion Seattle. Cam Newton and his crew hope to carry that momentum over to this season when they visit Jacksonville for a battle of big cats on Sunday.

Point spread: Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.8-18.8 Panthers

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina won its last four games last season to claim the NFC South crown and won a playoff game before losing to the Seahawks in the conference semifinals. And the Panthers only trailed in that game by four points heading into the fourth quarter.

Carolina ranked seventh in the league in rushing last season, out-rushing foes by 15 yards per game, 10th in total defense and fourth in average time of possession at +4:32 per game. And as much as they struggled last year, going eight weeks (including a bye) without a victory through the middle of the season, the Panthers still managed to go 8-7-1 ATS.

In fact, Carolina has posted a winning ATS record each of the last four seasons. If Newton can take the next step and improve his completion percentage while perhaps running a bit less, the Panthers will be tough again this season.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are coming off a 3-13 campaign, although they improved as the season progressed. After starting the season 1-10, with just two covers, Jacksonville won two of its last five contests, with four covers.

Statistically, the Jaguars were a mess last year, but they were also the second-youngest team in the league, playing their second season under head coach Gus Bradley. They're all now a season older and a season better acquainted with Bradley's systems.

Quarterback Blake Bortles, running back Denard Robinson and a decent set of receivers have shown some flashes, and the defense held foes to 22 points per game over the last six games last year. For this team, it's a matter of taking the next step.

Smart pick

The team most likely to win the ground and turnover battles is the team most likely to win and cover this game, and in this case that team is Carolina.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the AFC South.

The total has gone under in five of the Jaguars' last six games at home.

The Jaguars are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games against the NFC South.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.