Why Wayne Rooney Will Spend 2 More Seasons at Manchester United

Wayne Rooney's record-breaking goal for England provided a warm, emotional moment of the kind that sport is uniquely placed to deliver.

The hint of a tear in his eye was understandable, given the magnitude of what he had achieved. He has managed to become the person who has scored more goals than any other for the England national team.

His relief and joy were clear for all to see, and in a post-match interview on ITV Sport (h/t the Independent) he compared the achievement favourably with winning the Champions League and the rest of his achievements, saying, "it's right up there, if not the best." 

The achievement is a tribute to his consistency over many, many years. Indeed, that same consistency has also brought him close to the Manchester United goalscoring record.

It is also a tribute to his longevity, and this is where the question of how long he has left at the club becomes relevant. In simple terms, because of the spectacularly lucrative contract he signed when David Moyes was manager, Rooney is set to remain at United until the end of the 2018/2019 season.

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Writing that sentence as a person born a few decades before the end of the 20th century makes it feel like the impossibly far-flung future. That aside, it still seems optimistic given Rooney's recent form that he will remain at the club until then.

Moyes' plan for Rooney, and his reasoning for giving him such a long contract, was presumably to play him up front for a couple more seasons, then allow him to drop back into the deeper-lying midfield role that has often been predicted for his future.

Indeed, Moyes told BBC Radio Five Live's Sportsweek on Sunday (h/t Sky Sports):

"

I think while he is probably England's best striker at the moment, he has to continue playing as a striker and scoring goals.

But I could genuinely see Wayne being a midfield player for a year or two after that - I think he has got that ability when his legs run out a bit.

He is such a good footballer and passer of the ball that he could play in other positions and it could be that he steps back (positionally) in time.

He has played top football for 12 or 13 years and not many players have had careers as long as that and played as many games. Wayne has got many miles on the clock but I do think he can go on a bit longer.

"

Given Moyes handed Rooney a five-and-a-half-year contract a year-and-a-half ago, it is reassuring to hear he thinks he can go on a bit longer. That midfield plan, though, is looking less and less viable with each passing transfer window. After all, United are now very well stocked in that department.

Bastian Schweinsteiger and Michael Carrick are older than Rooney, but Morgan Schneiderlin looks lined up to replace Carrick, and Schweinsteiger's contract is scheduled to finish at the same time as Rooney's.

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For now, it is very clear that the captain's role in the side is as a striker, and this is where the question of how long he has left at the club becomes relevant. Louis van Gaal has shown little sentiment when it comes to shipping out players he perceives to be under-performing. Robin van Persie's struggles for most of last season saw him unceremoniously sold in the summer.

Rooney has a lot of time left to earn himself a stay of execution, but what will Van Gaal do if the lacklustre form his captain has showed so far this season continues? The international break has seen Rooney achieve a remarkable milestone, but he needed two penalties to do so and was unable to score from open play against San Marino.

The truth is the reason he has been able to break his country's goalscoring record before the age of 30 could be the reason his United career ends sooner than he would like. His emergence as a teenage sensation means he has played at a very high level for much longer than players of the same age.

The data is not freely available, but the briefest comparison between highlight videos of Rooney in his prime and Rooney now show just how much of a decline there has been in his physical performance.

They also offer a wistful reminder of just what an incredible player he once was. 

This could all be proven wrong by a turnaround in his output in the next few months, but the working hypothesis behind the two-year prediction is that he will under-perform this season, and be given another chance next, thanks to his commercial importance and status at the club.

He may survive a further season on the basis that in two summers United will most likely get a new manager in, so Rooney could remain as a kind of senior figure, making the odd appearance off the bench. However, that would be dependent on him being prepared to do that, as opposed to finding more regular football elsewhere.

The idea that he can transition into some kind of Andrea Pirlo figure—at least one who is good enough to a club with ambitions to compete at the very top of the game—seems far-fetched given how little he has played in midfield and how poor he has been when he has done.

If he does transition to midfield it seems likely it will be somewhere other than United. Thus, unless something changes, and he once again looks like a striker capable of firing the Red Devils to greatness, his time at Old Trafford is surely running out.

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Before it does, though, he will likely have become the club's top goalscorer, adding yet another achievement to a truly remarkable career.