UFC 191: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
On Saturday, we, the MMA fans, are going down to the crossroads.
How good is Demetrious Johnson? How good is John Dodson? Do we enjoy watching or care about flyweights, like, in any capacity?
If this rematch between the UFC's longest-tenured undisputed champ and the challenger who came closest to beating him doesn't turn the people out, then nothing will at the 125-pound division. After Saturday, we fans will know something about ourselves, something real and irreversible. And we shan't be able to return to these crossroads forever. Forever!
That's the key storyline of UFC 191. But this main card goes five deep, and there's intrigue at each spot. Here to help you make your choices is our Bleacher Report staff predictions team. Craig Amos. Steven Rondina. Nathan McCarter. Jonathan Snowden. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
New 2015 Staff Records
1 of 6
This shrugging guy knows exactly how I feel.
We're one card into this new era, and as you might expect, we're pretty much all knotted up. Whatevs.
Amos: 4-2 (4-2 overall)
Harris: 3-3 (3-3)
McCarter: 3-3 (3-3)
Rondina: 3-3 (3-3)
Snowden: 3-3 (3-3)
Paige VanZant vs. Alex Chambers
2 of 6
Steven Rondina
This fight makes sense on paper, but there's no comparison between these two in the cage. Paige VanZant is better—and not by a little. This is, quite frankly, a squash match.
VanZant, TKO, Rd. 2
Jonathan Snowden
The UFC has a lot invested in VanZant promotionally. She's being groomed as the strawweight Ronda Rousey, but she's not quite ready to make the leap to title contention. Alex Chambers is the perfect opponent as VanZant continues her rise to the top. She's dangerous but not too dangerous. This is a great piece of matchmaking that shows, when they put their minds to it, UFC officials are plenty capable of cultivating a young prospect.
VanZant, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
This is another perfect showcase fight for VanZant. She should style all over Chambers in this matchup. Chambers is not nearly athletic enough to compete against VanZant and eventually gets overrun in the second round.
VanZant, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Anything can happen and all that, but this matchup feels utterly pointless. Chambers grabbed victory from the clutches of defeat with a late submission in her last bout, but her chances seem even slimmer this time out.
VanZant, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
To paraphrase Jimmy Conway, we all know what this is. OK? We know what it is. Chambers has some ground chops, but this isn't a grappling match, and VanZant isn't Karen Hill. The young alpha female all day on the feet.
VanZant, TKO, Rd. 2
Jan Blachowicz vs. Corey Anderson
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Rondina
This is a sneaky-interesting fight. Corey Anderson is one of the few young talents at 205 pounds, and Jan Blachowicz is an untested but high-upside fighter. When it comes to these kinds of talents, always bet on the better wrestler.
Anderson, unanimous decision
Snowden
Anderson, a former The Ultimate Fighter winner, has potential to be a good fighter with time and further development. He's strong in the clinch and should be able to take the Pole to the mat. If he doesn't, well, it could be a long night. This fight will be about distance. If Anderson can close it, he should win handily.
Anderson, unanimous decision
McCarter
This is a great fight to hit reset on the crowd before the final three fights of the night. I want to pick Anderson here, but I have so little faith he will have success for prolonged periods of time, I cannot pick him. Blachowicz gets a stoppage once he finds Anderson’s chin.
Blachowicz, TKO, Rd. 2
Amos
Blachowicz is coming off an underwhelming performance opposite Jimi Manuwa, while Anderson enters having just suffered the first defeat of his career. Given his relative youth and dearth of experience, Anderson could rebound better than ever. If that's the case, he'll take this one.
Anderson, unanimous decision
Harris
It's a close one to call. I'm of the opinion that everyone should have a low opinion of TUF winners until proved otherwise. Anderson's a good wrestler, and his power is real, but I think Blachowicz has a little more cage savvy. He'll fend off takedowns and keep the young gun guessing while slamming home low kicks to take the edge off his first step.
Blachowicz, unanimous decision
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Anthony Johnson vs. Jimi Manuwa
4 of 6
Rondina
Jimi Manuwa has a better chance than many are giving him. That said, the most likely outcome is a solid win for Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 3
Snowden
Johnson will have more to worry about from the protestors outside the building than he will from the overmatched Manuwa.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 1
McCarter
If Manuwa can land leg kicks and get out of the first round, he has a great chance at this upset, but stylistically, this just looks like a ticking clock until he gets lambasted by Johnson. Johnson hurts him and never relents. Quick fight.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 1
Amos
This contest pits two men of similar tools against one another. Johnson's tools are more dangerous—or useful I guess, since tools are rated by utility. Anyway, he'll get the job done, and he'll get it done early.
Johnson, KO, Rd. 1
Harris
With his loss to Daniel Cormier and all his metaphorically off-the-field issues, part of me thinks Johnson is in line for a letdown. But it's a fairly small part of me. Manuwa (and his boxing style) is as good a matchup for Rumble as Cormier was a bad one.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 1
Frank Mir vs. Andrei Arlovski
5 of 6
Rondina
It's still hard to completely buy into a comeback for either of these former champions, but there's little doubt about who is going to win this fight. This fight almost certainly won't hit the ground, and Andrei Arlovski is the superior striker.
Arlovski, KO, Rd. 1
Snowden
It's great to see these two former UFC champions close their careers on a high note. I'm not completely convinced either is fully back, and both have the kind of fundamental flaws that make picking them to win a nerve-wracking proposition. While Arlovski is the more technical striker, he gets tagged a lot—and these days, Mir is packing quite a wallop. I see Frank Mir hurting Arlovski, then taking advantage of a dazed opponent on the mat for the win.
Mir, Submission, Rd. 1
McCarter
I actually love this fight although Arlovski got snubbed for a title tilt. And that’s unfortunate because he won’t win on Saturday. Mir has underrated power punches, and Arlovski won’t dare hit the mat with him. I believe Mir can take a few of Arlovski’s shots but not the other way around.
Mir, KO, Rd. 1
Amos
That this fight is happening, and that it's relevant, makes me think the concept of time travel is not so ludicrous. Both men wield knockout power, and both men have suffered their fair share of knockouts, though Arlovski hasn't been stopped since 2011. He's also been more consistent lately. He's the pick.
Arlovski, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
I can't see Arlovski losing this fight. He has outstanding takedown defense and the defensive movement to stay clear of Mir's specialty areas, which are grappling and haymakers. Conversely, Mir's key weakness—a glass jaw brought on by all these battles over the years—is right in the Belarusian's sweet spot.
Arlovski, TKO, Rd. 2
Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson
6 of 6
Rondina
John Dodson is a darn good fighter, and he has enough knockout power that it isn't all that crazy to imagine him taking the flyweight strap. Still, Demetrious Johnson is just too good to pick against, regardless of the competition.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Snowden
It's crazy at this point to pick against Johnson. I know that. But I've felt Dodson had something special to offer the sport since the first time I saw him at a local show in Virginia years and years ago. Now 30, here's where he finally lives up to his potential.
Dodson, split decision
McCarter
Everything tells me Mighty Mouse wins this fight. After all, he is the pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet. However, I’m still going Dodson. Johnson can be hit early, and with Dodson’s power, he will land to put a cap on an all-KO/TKO event. And new.
Dodson, TKO, Rd. 2
Amos
I buy into the belief that Dodson is the best flyweight after Johnson. I'm less convinced he can usurp Johnson as the champion. This one should be competitive, but the lord of the flies will retain his title.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Harris
I have to echo a point made by Mighty Mouse himself. Yes, Dodson came close when he rocked Johnson in their first meeting. And yet, that amounted to a grand total of about 15 seconds of control in a 25-minute fight. I don't see Dodson getting even that close again. Johnson is too sophisticated of a fighting computer to leave himself vulnerable to a mere puncher's chance.
Johnson, submission, Rd. 4
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