NASCAR Sprint Cup: Complete Preview, Prediction for Southern 500 at Darlington

Who says you can never go home again?

Not NASCAR, which after a 12-year absence has returned the Southern 500 to its traditional Labor Day weekend date.

Sunday night’s Bojangles' Southern 500 brings back a tradition that existed for more than a half-century, from Darlington’s first race when it opened in 1950 until its last time there in 2003.

After trying venues like Fontana (California) and Atlanta in place of Darlington on the Labor Day weekend, NASCAR ultimately decided to go full-circle and bring the 500 back to its true birthplace.

This Sunday’s Sprint Cup race (along with a few cars in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, also at Darlington) will have more than two dozen cars painted in retro-looking schemes reminiscent of stock cars (and other motorsport series vehicles) from the 1970s and 1980s.

This could wind up being one of the more spectacular races NASCAR has seen in a long time. It’s likely the track will be a complete sellout, and TV ratings should enjoy a healthy spike as well.

Yes, you can go back home again—and there’s no place like home as Darlington.

By the Numbers: Darlington Raceway

BOJANGLES SOUTHERN 500

Place: Darlington Raceway

Date: Sunday, Sept. 6

Time: 7 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBC, 6 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 367 laps, 501.3 miles (1.366-mile track)

Defending winner: Kevin Harvick

Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on May 10, 2008 (23 years, 0 months, 8 days).

Oldest winner: Harry Gant on Sept. 1, 1991 (51 years, 7 months, 22 days).

Youngest pole winner: Kurt Busch on Sept. 2, 2001 (23 years, 0 months, 29 days).

Oldest pole winner: David Pearson on Sept. 6, 1982 (47 years, 8 months, 15 days).

Most wins: David Pearson (10); active—Jeff Gordon (7)

Most poles: David Pearson (12); active—Kasey Kahne (4)

Most top-fives: Richard Petty (25); active—Jeff Gordon (19)

Most top-10s: Bill Elliott (35); active—Jeff Gordon (23)

Lead lap finishes: Mark Martin (29); active—Jeff Gordon (24)

Laps completed: Ricky Rudd (17,582); active—Ken Schrader (13,366)

Laps led: Dale Earnhardt (2,648); active—Jeff Gordon (1,744)

Most race starts at Darlington: Richard Petty (65); active—Ken Schrader (44)

Race record: Matt Kenseth (141.383 mph) on May 11, 2013

Qualifying record: Kevin Harvick (183.479 mph) on April 12, 2014

Best average start: Fred Lorenzen (3.688); active—Jeff Gordon (6.824)

Best average finish: Denny Hamlin (6.889)

TRACK NOTES:

* Total number of races at Darlington: 111.
* Total number of different pole winners in Darlington history: 48
* Races won from pole: 20
* Last race won from pole: Kevin Harvick on April 12, 2014
* Number of race winners at Darlington: 47
* DNFs (most): Buddy Baker (34); active – Morgan Shepherd (14) 
* DNFs (least): Elliott Sadler (0 in 18 starts) 

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations

Key Storylines

Two races to make the Chase: The Race to the Chase, the prelude to the Chase for the Sprint Cup, has just two races remaining. With more than a dozen drivers still winless and knowing their only chance to make the Chase is with a win, Sunday’s race and next Saturday’s race at Richmond could become very wild affairs.

Can Clint Bowyer hold off Aric Almirola and Kasey Kahne to make the Chase? Right now, Clint Bowyer is the man on the Chase bubble. Heading into Sunday’s race, Bowyer has a 35-point edge on Almirola, who is on the outside of the Chase grid, looking in. Right behind Almirola is Kasey Kahne, who is 37 points behind Bowyer.

Clint Bowyer, deva vu all over again? A little bit more about Bowyer, who knows what it’s like to miss out on the Chase. Last season, he was as high as ninth place with six races to go to make the Chase. Unfortunately, by the time the final pre-Chase race at Richmond was over, Bowyer had come up short and missed making the expanded 16-driver field. It was a very valuable lesson learned, and one he especially won’t soon forget, especially in the next two races.

Do Danica Patrick and Tony Stewart still have a Chase chance? With two of their Stewart-Haas Racing teammates (Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch) already locked into the Chase, can Danica Patrick and Tony Stewart still steal a win to make the playoffs as well?

Patrick, of course, is still seeking her first career Sprint Cup win, and next week at Richmond could be the place she breaks through (in other words, I’m not expecting a win by her at Darlington).

Stewart, on the other hand, can win at both remaining tracks. He’s been steadily improving in practice and qualifying in recent weeks but hasn’t had the results to match. He just needs one win, and not only would it put him in the Chase, it would be his first Sprint Cup win in more than two years!

For the umpteenth time, will this finally be Jeff Gordon’s breakthrough race? We keep saying the same thing over and over, week after week. Sooner or later, the law of averages has to come out on Jeff Gordon’s side and he winds up winning a race, right?

Gordon is the winningest active driver at Darlington with seven career triumphs. That immediately elevates him among the potential favorites. And there’s some irony in the fact that given the rough season he’s had to date, wouldn’t it be fitting if he finally wins his first race of the season at the toughest track on the circuit?

Drivers to Watch

Paul Menard: Protecting a 19-point lead over Clint Bowyer, Menard has to play it smart over the next two races. In other words, forget about a win—although that would be a surefire way to put him in the Chase. Rather, Menard has to play defense and points race at both Darlington and Richmond to ensure he’ll make his first career Chase.

Joey Logano: No, there’s nothing wrong with Logano. Rather, he has nothing to lose but to win Sunday and at Richmond. If Logano can pull off one more win, that would draw him even with Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch, who have four wins apiece. Given that Logano is ranked second in the standings, a fourth win would put him at the top of the Chase grid and potentially make him the top seed when the points are reset prior to the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: In much the same position as Logano, Harvick has nothing to lose in the next two races. All he has to do is win. Harvick has two wins and has led the points for almost the entire 26-race regular season. But if Harvick were to win at both Darlington and Richmond, he would be the No. 1 seed when the points are reset prior to the Chase.

Kasey Kahne: If there’s one thing that typifies or distinguishes Kahne, it’s that when pressure is on the line, he’s one of the best in the business. Look at what he did last year at Atlanta: He needed a win to make the Chase, and that’s just what he did. Kahne will be under close scrutiny because if anyone can win at either Darlington or Richmond, the Enumclaw, Washington, native can.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Darlington has not exactly been one of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s best tracks. Frankly, the so-called Lady In Black and Track Too Tough To Tame have been like a thorn in Junior’s side. In 20 career starts at the 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval, Earnhardt has just four top-five and five other top-10 finishes. But he broke through in last year’s race and finished second to winner Kevin Harvick. It’s time for Junior to finally win at Darlington on Sunday.

Favorites

Tony Stewart: Given how rough of a season it has been for Stewart, who hasn’t won a race in nearly two-and-a-half years, what better way to break through than at Darlington. Interestingly, Stewart has never won there. In 22 races, he has just four top-five and eight other top-10 finishes. If he’s going to break through and end the terrible season he’s had to date, what better place to do it than the toughest track in NASCAR.

Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He missed the first 11 races due to a broken right leg and fractured left foot, and then returned to win four of the next 12 races. He’s motivated to not only enter the Chase as one of the top seeds, but more importantly, he is also bound and determined to win the Chase for the first time in his career.

Busch has a decent record at Darlington—10 starts, one win, one other top-five and three other top-10 finishes. If he wants to be the No. 1 seed once the points are reset and the Chase begins, he needs at least one more win in the next two races.

Jeff Gordon: Yes, picking Gordon has become a weekly exercise. But this time, he really has perhaps the best chance he’s had all season for a win. Gordon is the winningest active driver at Darlington, with seven career wins. If he can win No. 8, it would lock him into the Chase, give him momentum and potentially turn his season around just in time for when it matters the most.

Kurt Busch: When it comes to Darlington, the older Busch brother is one of the toughest competitors. But with one exception: While he almost always drives tough there, he has yet to reach Victory Lane. Given that he’s already locked into the Chase, Busch has nothing to lose but to go out and earn that elusive first win at Darlington this Sunday.

Brad Keselowski: Darlington is one of Keselowski’s favorite tracks, an old-school facility for a driver who is a throwback to old-school drivers like David Pearson, Cale Yarborough and Bobby Allison. Even though the 2012 Sprint Cup champ has only six career starts at Darlington, with his style of driving and the challenging type of track it is, sooner or later he’s bound to win there. And if it’s sooner, why not Sunday?

Dark-Horse Pick: Greg Biffle

Let’s face it, The Biff has done very little this season.

He knows it and we know it.

But it’s not necessarily Biffle’s fault. Roush Fenway Racing as a whole has struggled miserably this season, extending a rough overall run that began back in 2013.

But Darlington is Biffle’s kind of racetrack, a physical, muscle-up kind of place where Biffle has earned two wins and six overall top-10 finishes in 14 starts, plus two poles.

If Biffle wins, he makes the Chase. That’s all the incentive he needs.

And the Winner Is: Jimmie Johnson

Remember Jimmie Johnson?

The guy who has four wins in 2015 and is hoping to earn his seventh career Sprint Cup championship?

Johnson and newly married crew chief Chad Knaus have a knack of gearing up for the Chase in the last two to three races beforehand. Well, he finished fourth at Bristol two weeks ago before the final off-weekend of the season.

And with a record of 12 top-10 finishes in 16 starts there, including three wins and nine overall top-five finishes, Johnson is primed to continue his run-up to the Chase and get it kicked off in the best way possible.

While we’d love to see teammate Jeff Gordon win at Darlington, he’ll have to get past Johnson—and we just don’t see that.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski