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UNC Basketball: Each Projected Starter's Most Concerning Flaw

Rob GoldbergSep 1, 2015

North Carolina will enter the 2015-16 season with one of the top starting lineups in the nation, but none of the players are perfect.

The Tar Heels will return four of their five starters from last season's Sweet 16 team, with all of them being among the best in the ACC at their positions. Marcus Paige, Justin Jackson, Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks each have the upside of NBA draft picks as well if this year goes to plan.

Head coach Roy Williams will have plenty of options for a fifth starter, but sophomore Theo Pinson seems like the best bet to replace J.P. Tokoto instead of smaller guards such as Joel Berry II and Nate Britt.

In any case, the five men on the floor have the ability to dominate most of the country thanks to pure talent and experience. That said, each starter could stand to improve in a few key areas.

Here is a look at the biggest concerns for all five players based on what we have seen to this point.

PG Marcus Paige: Aggressiveness

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Marcus Paige was limited by a foot injury to start the season and needed ankle surgery after it, so the goal for 2015-16 should be simply to stay healthy. If he is at 100 percent, the key will be his aggressiveness on the offensive end.

While Paige can create looks for himself on the outside, a major reason he dropped from 17.5 points per game as a sophomore to 14.1 points per game as a junior is his unwillingness to go inside. Despite taking about the same number of shots from beyond the arc each season, he had 1.6 fewer attempts last season compared to the year before.

Staying on the outside led to an even bigger issue, as his free-throw rate dropped from 33.6 percent to 26.7 percent, according to KenPom.com. Considering how well Paige shoots from the charity stripe, he is taking away a very efficient form of scoring.

The guard is too talented to be used simply to spread the defense out. Paige's quickness and dynamic play can make him the All-American candidate many thought he would be going into last season.

SG Theo Pinson: Experience

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There is no better option to replace J.P. Tokoto in the starting lineup than Theo Pinson. The rising sophomore has the athleticism, slashing ability and, most importantly, defensive prowess to help fans forget Tokoto even existed.

Unfortunately, the one thing he lacks is the biggest strength of North Carolina as a team: experience.

A foot injury limited Pinson to just 24 games as a freshman, while a deep lineup held him to an average of just 12.5 minutes in those contests. He ranked 10th on the team with just 300 total minutes during the season.

The skill is there, but we don't yet know if he is ready to be the glue guy in an already talented lineup. Can he keep up with the fast-paced attack offensively? Will the defensive skills he showcased early last season hold up against the top scorers in the ACC?

If Pinson can't keep up during the early nonconference season, it won't take long to make a change to the starting lineup.

SF Justin Jackson: Outside Shooting

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While on-ball defense could be a concern for Justin Jackson, the biggest area he needs to improve upon to reach the next level is his outside shooting.

At 6'8", Jackson is a huge mismatch at the college level with the ability to blow past most defenders his size and finish in the lane. However, opponents will start giving him more and more space if he only hits 30.4 percent of his three-point shots like he did as a freshman.

We know the guard has the ability to hit shots from deep. His huge 22-point effort against Virginia in the ACC tournament included 4-of-5 from three-point range. He also went 3-of-3 from beyond the arc in the narrow loss to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.

Of course, it's hard to forget the 0-of-7 showing against Notre Dame in the ACC tournament finals or the 0-of-11 stretch across five games earlier in the year. If he wants to be a big-time player, Jackson needs a lot more consistency in this part of his game.

If he continues to struggle, both the Tar Heels['] season and Jackson's NBA stock will take a major hit.

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PF Brice Johnson: Consistency

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Both Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks could work on their free-throw shooting, but improvements over the last couple of years bring encouraging signs for the future. Instead, the biggest issue surrounding Johnson is his lack of consistency.

With the senior's combination of athleticism, quickness and post moves, there is no question he should be able to score close to 20 points per game during the season. Even just running the floor well could get him three or four extra baskets each game.

Although he showed this upside at times last year, he also disappeared at times. Johnson had five different games during the 2014-15 season where he finished with just one field goal, three of those resulting in losses for the Tar Heels.

Even with a solid effort against Wisconsin, the forward managed just 9.7 points per game in three rounds of the NCAA tournament. 

Johnson has the ability to dominate at this level and be a driving force for an outstanding season at North Carolina. However, he needs to remain aggressive each time out and provide more production on a consistent basis.

C Kennedy Meeks: Conditioning

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Kennedy Meeks has completely transformed his body since first arriving at North Carolina. Before the forward's freshman year, UNC strength and conditioning coordinator Jonas Sahratian called him, "probably the worst-conditioned guy I have ever seen," via Nicole Auerbach of USA Today.

After losing about 50 pounds, however, Meeks was a much more efficient player and was able to average 23.3 minutes per game.

Despite the improvement, there is still room to grow. The Tar Heels employ one of the fastest attacks in the nation, ranking 15th in adjusted tempo last season, according to KenPom.com. A lot of their success is based on beating opponents down the court on fast breaks.

Meeks—who was held to fewer than 20 minutes in four of six postseason games last year—could be a much bigger threat if he is able to remain on the floor.

Obviously, Joel James and Isaiah Hicks provide quality depth, but North Carolina could be even more dangerous if Meeks can give the squad close to 30 minutes per game.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round college basketball talk and more sports analysis.

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