UFC 191: Technical Analysis, Betting Odds and Predictions
The UFC returns to pay-per-view on Saturday with a UFC 191 card that offers some appeal to its hardcore fans but substantially less to the general audience.
In the main event, longtime flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson makes the seventh defense of his title. He takes on John Dodson, who gave him the toughest fight of his tenure at the top of the mountain back in January 2013. The rematch looks to be the most competitive and interesting fight that can be made in the relatively thin flyweight division.
The rest of the card is uneven in quality and relevance. Andrei Arlovski and Frank Mir have made unexpected returns to their early form after years of futility, and the winner of their fight could well be the next challenger for the heavyweight title.
The light heavyweight matchup of Jimi Manuwa vs. Anthony Johnson promises serious violence, and rising star Paige VanZant gets a softball fight against Alex Chambers. The preliminary card offers two outstanding fights—a lightweight matchup between Ross Pearson and Paul Felder and an epic barnburner featuring Francisco Rivera and John Lineker. After that, there is nothing of interest to anyone but the most dedicated fans.
Main Event: Johnson vs. Dodson
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Main Event: Flyweight Championship
Demetrious Johnson (22-2-1; 10-1-1 UFC) vs. John Dodson (17-6; 6-1 UFC)
The seemingly unbeatable Johnson draws Dodson, his toughest opponent to date, in a long-awaited rematch. Dodson stunned Johnson in their first meeting, knocking him down in the second round and putting on a competitive showing before finally succumbing to the grinding pace and inside game of the champion late.
Since then, Johnson has run through each of his five opponents—John Moraga, Joseph Benavidez, Ali Bagautinov, Chris Cariaso and Kyoji Horiguchi—with contemptuous ease. Dodson has fought only three times since his loss to Johnson, but he scored vicious finishes of Darrell Montague and Moraga before taking a close decision from Zach Makovsky following his return from a serious knee injury.
Johnson is known mostly for his incredible speed and slick footwork, and rightly so, but his game as a whole is one of the most complete and seamless in the sport. Each aspect of his approach, from striking to the clinch to takedowns to grappling, flows naturally into the next, with a multitude of available options and threats depending on his opponent’s response.
Except for his clinch work, none of Johnson’s skill sets is particularly imposing on its own; if he is forced to do nothing but strike or wrestle, an opponent can the holes. When he is allowed to transition, following strikes with takedowns and sneaking in knees and punches as his opponent stands up, Johnson is unstoppable. He overwhelms his opponents with information and output, wearing them down mentally and physically over the course of the fight.
None of that is to say that Johnson is without weaknesses, however. He has a bad habit of moving straight backward when pressured and is hittable on the counter, particularly early in the fight.
At range, Johnson mixes in single kicks with punching combinations and constantly switches stances from southpaw to orthodox and back. While he can hit smooth counterpunches, he focuses primarily on aggressive forward movement, stringing together four or five shots and then moving directly into the clinch. Infighting is Johnson’s strongest skill set, and he combines stifling control against the fence with sharp elbows and knees.
He is a smooth wrestler with one of the cleanest blast double-legs in MMA, which he chains nicely to singles, knee taps and trips. His takedown defense is not impenetrable, but he is difficult to hold down. From top position, Johnson imposes strong control and mixes his ground strikes with passes. He has shown an increasing affinity for top-side submissions in his last several outings, particularly kimuras and armbars.
Dodson has exceptional speed and power and has built his game around his physical gifts. Constant feints and movement create openings for his forward-moving blitzes as he explodes into a winging left hand or the occasional flying knee.
As much as he relies on those explosive bursts of forward momentum to create offense, Dodson is actually at his sharpest on the counter. He excels at drawing his opponent forward, planting his feet and then blasting away with one or two left hands or a sharp stepping knee. All of his strikes pack fight-ending force, but the trade-off for operating at long range and throwing so much power into everything is a serious lack of offensive volume. Dodson often goes 30 seconds or more without throwing a strike, and his lack of output and activity means that he tends to give away rounds.
Exceptional defensive wrestling skills are a must for the kind of game Dodson wants to play, and he has them in spades. His movement and control of the distance make it difficult for anyone to get a clean shot, and he combines a beautiful sprawl and limp-leg with excellent instincts for immediately hipping out and scrambling back to his feet.
Dodson excels at creating offense off his opponents’ failed shots, slipping in hard knees and punches as he breaks the clinch. Offensive wrestling is not his strongest suit, but he does mix in the occasional double-leg and can control from the top as a change of pace. While his takedown defense is outstanding in the middle of the cage, he can struggle against chained attempts with his back to the fence, and the same goes for his work in the clinch.
Betting Odds: Johnson -500, Dodson +400
Prediction
The betting odds capture what a difficult matchup this is for Dodson over the long haul. The Albuquerque, New Mexico, native has approximately two rounds to put his hands on Johnson and land the fight-ending shot before the champion finds his rhythm and timing and puts his transitions together into their final package.
It’s doable for Dodson, though. Johnson is hittable, especially early, and Dodson’s counterpunching skills will give him ample opportunities. As the fight wears on, however, Johnson’s constant targeting of the legs and body and his grinding pace will take away Dodson’s gas tank and leave him more vulnerable to long periods of control on the ground and against the fence.
While Johnson might have to survive a few scary moments, as he did in the first fight, he holds a drastic edge as the fight continues. The pick is Johnson by increasingly one-sided decision.
Mir vs. Arlovski
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Co-Main Event: Heavyweights
Andrei Arlovski (24-10, 1 N/C; 13-4 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (18-9; 16-9 UFC)
It seems unbelievable that veteran heavyweights Mir and Arlovski have never met in the UFC. Their tenures in the promotion have overlapped for more than eight years, and the two men have combined for 42 appearances inside the Octagon.
They should have met before now, but it is something of a commentary on the state of the division that two of the best heavyweights in UFC history will only meet in 2015, 14 and 15 years after their debuts. Both have been on impressive runs of late, with Mir rebounding from a four-fight losing streak with first-round knockouts of Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee and Arlovski finishing Silva and Travis Browne inside the opening frame.
It’s strange to contemplate, but the winner will have the best claim on a title bout in the unpredictable and topsy-turvy division.
Arlovski is more or less the fighter he’s always been, which is somewhat surprising for a 36-year-old with 16 years of professional experience and a great deal of mileage under his belt. He retains most of his excellent speed and athleticism; his hand speed remains outstanding, and he still packs a brutal punch.
A crisp boxer, Arlovski works behind a probing jab and the occasional low kick, but the right hand is the centerpiece of his offensive approach. He throws it as a counter in the pocket, steps in with it as a lead and tends to double or even triple it up whenever possible.
That striking arsenal is the core of the throwback sprawl-and-brawler's approach. Rock-solid defensive wrestling allows him to utilize it, and aside from some acumen in the clinch and a functional top game, that is the extent of his skills.
From a skills perspective, Mir has never looked better. His game on the feet has long shown flashes of effectiveness, and over the last several fights his entire striking repertoire has finally come together into a coherent whole.
For most of his career, Mir has been one of the worst defensive strikers in the heavyweight division, but he has showcased real improvements in his head movement and instincts. This makes him more of a threat to counter in the pocket with a sharp straight left and right hook from his southpaw stance, and his formerly flicking jab has turned into a useful weapon.
Mir has been an underrated clinch fighter for a long time, with sharp knees, good control and a few slick throws, and he boasts solid shot takedowns to boot.
On the mat, he remains one of the best submission artists in UFC history, but he is not without weaknesses in that phase. The willingness to grab hold of a limb, twist and eat punches while doing so is a real problem against technically sound top players who can defend the submission attempts and maintain control.
Betting Odds: Arlovski -160, Mir +140
Prediction
The odds seem approximately correct. Both fighters have had a tough time absorbing shots and have suffered a number of devastating knockout losses, but they have come through their last several fights without too much of a scratch.
That streak comes to an end here.
Mir would like this fight to take place on the mat, but Arlovski’s stellar takedown defense makes that an unlikely proposition, which means this will probably unfold on the feet.
In that scenario, it is easy to favor Arlovski. He will stuff Mir’s takedowns, touch him up in the pocket and eventually land a big right hand in an exchange. The pick is Arlovski by knockout in the first round.
Johnson vs. Manuwa
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Light Heavyweights
Anthony Johnson (19-5; 10-5 UFC) vs. Jimi Manuwa (15-1; 4-1 UFC)
Johnson attempts to rebound from a brutal loss to Daniel Cormier for the vacant light heavyweight title against Britain’s Manuwa, who gets an enormous step up in competition.
Prior to the grinding and embarrassing loss to Cormier, Johnson had been on an epic and destructive run, with nine consecutive wins and seven by vicious knockout capped by a first-round finish of former title contender Alexander Gustafsson.
Manuwa, meanwhile, had built a great deal of hype and a strong undefeated record, but a finish at the hands of Gustafsson and then a tepid win over Jan Blachowicz took off much of the shine. In the UFC’s thinnest division, the winner will be no more than one or two bouts away from a date with whomever holds the belt.
Johnson’s hallmark is his aggression. He constantly pressures, using crisp cage-cutting footwork and powerful kicks from both stances to limit his opponent’s lateral movement and push him back toward the cage. If his opponent tries to plant his feet and throw to stop Johnson’s forward momentum, Rumble slips his head off the center line and bombs away with sledgehammer counterpunches in the pocket.
Although he occasionally gets wild and overcommits, Johnson is a lethal swarmer with shocking power, and few opponents can stand up to him for long. Strong defensive wrestling allows Johnson to keep the fight standing, and he often capitalizes on his opponent’s level changes with potent and well-timed uppercuts.
He struggles to defend chained attempts, however, and can be ground down in the clinch. If placed on his back, Johnson has nothing to offer, and he has a bad habit of giving up his back or simply breaking if exposed to pressure on the ground for extended periods.
Like Johnson, Manuwa is an aggressive striker who does his best work while moving forward. The basis of his game is fundamentally sound muay thai delivered with great speed and power. He uses vicious round kicks, particularly his left switch kick, to push his opponent backwards and set up his favored left hook, which he loves to throw as a lead.
As crisp as he is at range, Manuwa prefers to punch his way into the clinch, where he grinds his opponent against the fence with strong underhooks and pulverizing knees to the legs and body. While he has built his reputation as a striker, he has a limited but powerful array of takedowns and can eat up time with basic control from the top.
Betting Odds: Johnson -500, Manuwa +400
Prediction
Johnson is a better athlete, a harder puncher and more skilled at precisely the things—pressure, forward movement, counters in the pocket—that Manuwa likes to do, while it is unlikely that the Englishman has the skill necessary to hold Johnson in the clinch for long enough to wear him down.
Barring a massive meltdown from Johnson in the wake of his title-losing effort, he should put big shots on the hittable Manuwa. The pick is Johnson by knockout in the second round.
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Blachowicz vs. Anderson
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Light Heavyweights
Jan Blachowicz (18-4; 1-1 UFC) vs. Corey Anderson (5-1; 2-1 UFC)
Prior to suffering the first loss of his career, a third-round knockout to Gian Villante, The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Corey Anderson looked like he might be the next big thing in the light heavyweight division. One loss doesn't end that possibility for the talented but still raw Anderson, and he attempts to get back on track against Poland’s Blachowicz, who came up short against Jimi Manuwa at April’s show in Krakow, Poland. In a division as starved for contenders and especially for new blood as light heavyweight, the winner might only be two bouts away from a top contender matchup.
Blachowicz is an out-fighter who is at his best sticking and moving behind a crisp, consistent jab and a steady stream of left kicks to the legs and body. He works from both stances, preferring to jab from orthodox and kick from southpaw, and in both he does a solid job of keeping his feet moving as he circles.
He is not particularly fleet of foot, however, and while his kicks pack some force, he is not a powerful puncher. Instead, he relies on output and length to win fights. In addition to his preferred striking repertoire, Blachowicz is a solid clinch fighter with good strength and technique, and he can hit the occasional single or double to eat up time from the top.
His defensive wrestling is rugged and serviceable if not outstanding. In sum, the Pole is well-rounded and reasonably skilled, if not dangerous or much of a threat to challenge the division’s elite.
Anderson was a Division III wrestler in college and has built his MMA game outward from that base. He prefers to circle and cut angles at range, probing with the jab and flicking clean, fundamentally sound punching combinations as he moves.
Power is not his strong suit, but he works at a great pace, consistently moves his head off the center line as he throws, and he has better timing on his counters than most novice strikers. While Beastin’ 25/8 is rapidly improving as a striker, the clinch and wrestling phases are still his wheelhouse. Anderson is a monster on the inside, with strong punches and knees from the collar tie, and he hits well-timed singles and doubles along with the occasional trip.
He is not particularly advanced as a grappler at this stage, but he effectively mixes top control with wrestling positions such as the top ride. The best part of Anderson’s game is his skill in the transitions, hitting punches and knees on clinch breaks or as his opponent attempts to scramble back to his feet.
Betting Odds: Blachowicz -150, Anderson +130
Prediction
The betting odds make sense here—Anderson was finished in his last fight, and the Pole is far more experienced—but I remain impressed by the TUF 19 winner’s learning curve and rapidly improving skills.
Blachowicz is not a knockout artist, and Beastin’ 25/8 is the far superior wrestler, works at a quicker pace and is likely stronger in the clinch as well. The pick is Anderson by hard-fought decision in a mild upset.
VanZant vs. Chambers
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Women’s Strawweights
Paige VanZant (5-1; 2-0 UFC) vs. Alex Chambers (5-2; 1-1 UFC)
The UFC hopes Paige VanZant will become the next big thing at women’s strawweight, a crossover star who can help to launch the division into the awareness of mainstream fans. Matchmaker Sean Shelby continues to build her slowly after wins over Kailin Curran and Felice Herrig, and in that vein, she draws the relatively unknown Chambers. The Australian has split her two UFC outings, submitting Curran and being submitted by Aisling Daly.
VanZant is a swarming pressure fighter who relies on her cardio, durability and athleticism to make up for her still-raw skill sets. She is willing to throw at range, tossing out punches and kicks with her head stock still and her chin far too high, but those strikes serve only to cover her forward movement as she bulldozes her way into the clinch.
Once inside, she goes to work with short punches and knees, grinding away while looking for trips, the head-and-arm throw and openings to spin to the back. Scrambling is her strong suit, and she is happy to attempt a risky throw if it creates a chaotic transition in which she is almost certain to come out on top.
On the downside, VanZant often exposes her back, and her base is not particularly strong, which makes her vulnerable to sweeps. She has a bad habit of leaving her hands on the mat in her opponent’s guard and neglects her posture, which leaves her open to submission attempts. Despite these holes in her skills, VanZant is clearly improving, and her pace is almost impossible for opponents to overcome long enough to have any hope of winning a decision.
Like VanZant, Chambers is a bit raw skill-wise, though she is 36 instead of 22 and lacks her opponent's upside. The Australian is an excellent athlete, however, with great speed and surprising power in her strikes. She constantly switches stances at range, preferring to kick from southpaw and box from orthodox, and she is willing to stand in the pocket and exchange. She is strong in the clinch, with sharp knees and solid takedowns.
On the mat she can be controlled from the top and has a bad habit of eating too many shots, but she has a dangerous guard and scrambles nicely. While she is athletic and dangerous, defense is not Chambers’ strong suit, and she lacks awareness of where she is in the cage, which makes her vulnerable to being pushed backward.
Betting Odds: VanZant -1500, Chambers +900
Prediction
It’s surprising that the odds are this wide, but the matchup favors VanZant on both a tactical and strategic level. While Chambers is dangerous, her habit of letting herself get pushed to the fence plays perfectly into VanZant’s forward-moving pressure game.
The Australian will likely be willing to engage VanZant in the clinch and in the scrambles on the mat, and while Chambers is dangerous and could crack the hittable American or catch her in a submission, that is less likely than VanZant’s pace wearing her down. The pick is VanZant by knockout late in the second round.
Felder vs. Pearson
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Lightweights
Ross Pearson (17-9, 1 N/C; 9-6, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Paul Felder (10-1; 2-1 UFC)
A barnburner of a matchup between two of the lightweight division’s most entertaining strikers caps off the Fox Sports 1 preliminary card, as TUF winner Pearson draws the fast-rising Felder.
England’s Pearson had been on an excellent run that he capped off with a devastating knockout of Gray Maynard, but since then he has lost fights to Al Iaquinta and Evan Dunham. Felder looked impressive in his first two UFC outings but came up short in a competitive fight against Edson Barboza on July’s Fox card.
Pearson is an aggressive counterpuncher by nature. He works his way forward, probing behind the occasional kick and a sharp jab, and then he drops powerful counters in the pocket when his opponent throws back at him. He is not an ace wrestler, but his takedown defense is good enough to keep him standing.
Felder is a skilled striker who also likes to work on the counter, mixing in stepping knees and uppercuts to catch opponents who like to change levels with sharp punching combinations and flashy spinning techniques.
The American is likely the sharper and more defensively sound striker, and he should be able to exploit Pearson’s tendencies in the pocket to land a big shot. The pick is Felder by knockout in the third round in a thrilling fight.
Betting Odds: Felder -360, Pearson +300
Prediction: Felder by knockout in the third round
Lineker vs. Rivera
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Bantamweights
Francisco Rivera (11-4, 1 N/C; 4-3, 1 N/C UFC) vs. John Lineker (25-7; 6-2 UFC)
Two brick-fisted punchers collide in another matchup that promises fireworks. Lineker has repeatedly failed to make the flyweight limit, and as a result the diminutive Brazilian has been forced to move up to bantamweight despite his serious accomplishments at the lighter weight, including a recent convincing win over Ian McCall. Rivera has looked excellent in recent outings despite mixed results, knocking out Alex Caceres in June after controversial losses to Urijah Faber and Takeya Mizugaki.
The American is an aggressive but measured striker. He works his way forward slowly behind a jab and low kicks, but when his opponent commits, Rivera blasts away with potent straight right and left hook counters. His footwork is sharp and clean, and he is a strong defensive wrestler.
Lineker is a quick-paced brawler by preference, but that should not suggest that he lacks skill. He places his shots beautifully around and through his opponent’s guard, counters smoothly in the pocket and has improved his other skills substantially.
This is a coin-flip matchup, and either man could end the fight at any time, but Rivera’s enormous height advantage (he has seven inches on Lineker) could be the difference. The pick is Rivera by decision.
Betting Odds: Lineker -120, Rivera -100
Prediction: Rivera by decision
The Rest of the Prelims
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Women’s Bantamweights
Jessica Andrade (13-4; 4-2 UFC) vs. Raquel Pennington (5-5; 2-2 UFC)
Brazil’s Andrade draws the American Pennington in a rematch of a solid but not outstanding fight from last year that the Brazilian took by split decision. Andrade rebounded from a loss to Marion Reneau last February with a win over Sarah Moras in July, while Pennington dropped a close fight to Holly Holm at UFC 184.
The Brazilian is a quick-paced brawler who slings vicious combinations in the pocket and combines her striking arsenal with clinch takedowns and a solid top game. Pennington can toss out decent combinations at range but is at her best utilizing her height and leverage to land knees and takedowns in the clinch.
While Pennington is bigger, Andrade should have skill advantages in the pocket and also on the mat if she can work takedowns. The pick is Andrade by decision.
Featherweights
Tiago Trator (19-5-2, 1 N/C; 1-1 UFC) vs. Clay Collard (14-6, 1 N/C; 1-2 UFC)
Low-level featherweights meet as Brazil’s Trator takes on Utah’s Collard with the loser likely to receive his walking papers. Trator had a promising debut against Akbarh Arreola, but Mike de la Torre finished him in the first round in his return engagement. Collard put up a respectable fight against Max Holloway on short notice and then defeated Alex White but was dominated by Gabriel Benitez in June.
The American is a striker by trade, and he mixes in the occasional low kick with an exceptionally high-output boxing attack. Trator is an excellent athlete with a crisp kicking game, serviceable takedowns and solid grappling chops. The pick is Collard by decision.
Middleweights
Joe Riggs (40-16, 1 N/C; 4-6 UFC) vs. Ron Stallings (13-7, 1 N/C; 1-1 UFC)
Longtime veteran Joe Riggs is facing the end of yet another tenure in the UFC with a loss, and he draws the journeyman Stallings in a potentially solid middleweight bout. Riggs has dropped both of his fights since returning to the promotion, while Stallings rebounded from a debut loss to Uriah Hall with a win over Justin Jones.
Stallings packs some power in his southpaw left kick and complements his striking arsenal with decent submissions. Riggs can do everything at this point, with particularly nice counters on the feet, but he struggles to take damage. The pick is Stallings by decision.
Lightweights
Nazareno Malegarie (23-3; 0-0 UFC) vs. Joaquim Silva (7-0; 0-0 UFC)
TUF Brazil 4 competitors meet months after the conclusion of the show, as former Bellator fighter Malegarie takes on the rising Silva. Malegarie is neither spectacular nor an imposing athlete, but he is highly skilled everywhere, with nice counters on the feet and stifling top control. Silva is a bomber with legitimate power in his hands and solid ancillary skills.
Malegarie is durable and has more options, and he should outwork the less experienced fighter. The pick is Malegarie by decision.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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